UK News
May full Moon: When to see the ‘Flower Moon’ rise this week
The Moon’s monthly orbit around Earth is slightly elliptical rather than circular, which means its distance from us varies and so not all full Moons are the same.
When this year’s Flower Moon becomes full it will be close to its maximum distance from Earth – a point known as apogee.
That means this year’s Flower Moon will appear slightly smaller than usual because it is at the farthest point from Earth in its orbit – roughly 406,000km (252,000 miles) away.
The difference between apogee and perigee is approximately 43,000km (26,000 miles) – sounds huge, but to the naked eye the change is barely noticeable except in photographs.
The overall effect is that a micromoon appears slightly smaller in the sky and may be a touch less bright than average.
UK News
UK house prices in surprise increase; NatWest braces for slowing economy – business live | Business
Key events
Mark Sweney
Here’s more on NatWest’s economic modelling in response to the Iran war: the bank said the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East could cost it £140m amid slowing growth and rising inflation even as it reported profits ahead of expectations.
Overall, the FTSE 100 lender booked a £283m impairment charge and said that almost half of that was because of a reassessment of its economic forecast to “reflect increased geopolitical risk and weaker equity markets”.
The bank said it expects its base case for UK gross domestic product growth to be only 0.4% this year, half that forecast by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month.
You can read more here:
Oil prices up with no end of Iran blockade in sight
Donald Trump has said he will stick with the US’s “incredible” blockade of the strait of Hormuz, with little sign that talks over reopening it are likely. Yet oil prices look like they are off their two-year peak of more than $126 per barrel of Brent crude on Thursday.
Brent crude futures are trading at $110 today, but that does not actually mean prices have dropped. Futures prices refer to a specific month of delivery, and the contract watched by financial markets changes at the end of each month. The price of crude for the new front month, July, is up by about 1% on Friday.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered a global energy crisis, as Iran responded by closing the strait and strangling about a fifth of global oil supplies. Yet despite the electoral risks to Trump from surging gasoline prices (not to mention a potential global food crisis), there appears to be little sign of movement to reopen the strait.
“Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible, the power of the blockade is incredible,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “Their economy is a disaster. So we’ll see how long they hold out.”
Jim Reid, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients:
Oil prices have continued to creep higher overnight, with no sign that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal. Given the month-end, there’s been a contract roll, but if we stick with the July 2026 contract for consistency, Brent crude is up +1.07% this morning to $111.58/bbl. Moreover, Trump showed no sign of backing down […]
Meanwhile, there’s been no sign of comprise from the Iranian side, with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issuing a statement that Iran would maintain its missile and nuclear capabilities and suggesting that Iran would implement “new legal frameworks” over the Strait of Hormuz.
NatWest is now the biggest faller on the FTSE 100, down 3.7% after analysts suggested that its underlying profits were slightly weaker than expected.
Gary Greenwood, banks analyst at Shore Capital, said that profits before tax benefited from “stronger-than-expected notable items in income and slightly lower costs”, but once those were stripped out “underlying performance was a touch weaker than expected”. In a note to clients, Greenwood wrote:
While management has upgraded [2026] income guidance to the top end of the £17.2bn to £17.6bn range, this remains below current consensus of £18.0bn and may therefore disappoint, especially given the first quarter miss on this metric.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, an investment platform, said:
With high performance comes high expectations, and NatWest has slipped today in terms of outlook rather than delivery. The slightly bearish reaction to the numbers reflects the disappointment, although in context it does little to derail the group’s onward march. The shares have risen by 22% over the last year, as has the wider FTSE100, and by 90% over the last two years.
At the other end of the FTSE 100, AstraZeneca is among the biggest fallers after US regulators voted against recommending its new breast cancer drug. Its shares were down 1.9% in early trading.
A US Food and Drug Administration committee voted against recommending the pharmaceutical company’s camizestrant by six votes to three.
Susan Galbraith, executive vice president of oncology haematology R&D at AstraZeneca, said:
We are disappointed with the mixed outcome of today’s [committee] meeting. We strongly believe in the results of the SERENA-6 trial, and are encouraged that the committee saw camizestrant as a safe and effective potential new medicine. We remain confident in the clinical benefit the combination can bring to patients by changing therapeutic strategy at the earliest opportunity, and are committed to challenging the status quo in the pursuit of innovation that optimises outcomes for patients.
Diageo shares rise after Trump removes whisky tariffs
And we’re off, in London at least. Top of the FTSE 100 this morning is Diageo, the drinks maker. It makes brands including Guinness but also, more pertinently this morning, a bevy of Scotch bevvies.
Diageo executives will be raising a glass to King Charles, after Donald Trump last night announced that the US would drop all tariffs on Scotch whisky in the royal family’s honour.
Trump said in a post on social media:
In Honor of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful Country, I will be removing the Tariffs and Restrictions on Whiskey having to do with Scotland’s ability to work with the Commonwealth of Kentucky on Whiskey and Bourbon.
The King and Queen got me to do something nobody else was able to do, without hardly even asking!
Shares in Diageo rose by 2% in early trading above £15. Its whisky brands include Johnnie Walker, Lagavulin, Talisker, the Singleton and Mortlach. Whisky and most other UK exports had been subject to 10% tariffs.
It is likely to be a quiet morning on equity markets, as most of the major indices around Europe are closed – and on that note, happy May Day!
But London is still open for trading (and closed on Monday). Futures prices suggest the FTSE 100 is due to dip by 0.3%.
UK house prices up surprise 0.4% in April; NatWest profits up
British homebuyers defied a bleak economic mood and the Iran war to push house prices up by 0.4% in April, surprising economists who had on average expected a decline.
Annual house price growth picked up to 3.0% in April, from 2.2% in March, according to data published on Friday by Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society. That put the average price at £278,880.
Nationwide said the increase in prices reflected resilience in the housing market, despite measures of economic sentiment declining, and the backdrop of the US-Israeli war in Iran threatening inflation because of higher oil prices.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:
Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.
This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably. GfK’s headline index has fallen to its lowest level since late‑2023, reflecting households’ more pessimistic views of the economic outlook and their own financial position over the year ahead.
Ashley Webb, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said:
The surprisingly strong rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in April shows that house prices have continued to gain momentum despite the falls in consumer confidence and the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war. But the growing upside risks to our mortgage rate forecast from the most recent rise in oil prices suggests this strength is unlikely to last.
NatWest Group reports higher profits despite economic gloom
NatWest reported higher profits of £1.4bn in the first quarter of the year, despite the UK banking group setting aside an extra £140m in case of the economy worsening.
The bank, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland, said that it expects income for the year to reach the top end of its expected range of between £17.2bn and £17.6bn.
Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, said it was a “strong performance in the first quarter of 2026”.
We have started the year with positive momentum, underpinned by healthy customer activity – growing all of our three businesses, expanding our capabilities to meet more of our customers’ needs and further improving productivity as we use AI at scale across the bank.
The agenda
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9:30am BST: Bank of England consumer credit (March; previous: £1.9bn; consensus: £1.8bn)
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9:30am BST: Bank of England mortgage approvals (March; previous: 62,580; consensus: 60,000)
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1:15pm BST: Bank of England – speech by Huw Pill, chief economist
A shortage of fertiliser due to the Iran conflict could reduce crop yields and push prices higher, says the boss of Yara.
Source link
St Denis Medical
11.10pm, BBC One
If the nonstop emergencies of The Pitt are a bit too unnerving, why not try a dose of Justin Spitzer and Eric Ledgin’s good (and occasionally excellent) mockumentary, set in an underfunded hospital in Oregon? As season two kicks off, Joyce is stressed about the launch of the new birthing centre, while Alex desperately tries to cling on to her blissful Hawaii holiday vibes. And Bruce’s aikido training proves useless when he’s attacked in the car park. Hannah J Davies
7.30pm, BBC One
In the last of this moving series we meet Grace, the first woman in the UK to give birth from a transplanted womb, and her donor sister Amy. Attempting to capture their bond is artist Karen Turner, who learns how much the whole family has been through, before embarking on what becomes her “most problematic” painting ever. Lucinda Everett
Unreported World
7.30pm, Channel 4
Guillermo Galdos is in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where the consequences of Donald Trump’s unique take on America’s “war on drugs” are being felt most acutely. Drug Enforcement Administration officials are stepping up their raids and seizures, but it’s not slowing an epidemic of fentanyl addiction on Puerto Rico’s streets. Jack Seale
Hacks
9pm, Sky Atlantic
The final season of this magnificent meta-comedy still balances snark and sensitivity to perfection. Ava wants to spread her wings, but struggles to find a tone. Meanwhile, Deborah is ambushed by nostalgia as she is confronted by her past. As sweet and sour as ever. Phil Harrison
The Young Offenders
9.30pm, BBC One
“The whole thing seems like a bit of a scam.” So runs the verdict on motherhood in the intro to this episode of the raucous Irish comedy. Until, that is, Conor and Jock end up on a road trip with Conor’s mum to pick up his grandma. Then someone dies and Conor has a realisation: maybe having your mum around is important after all. Alexi Duggins
TFI Friday Unplugged
11.05pm, Channel 4
Reef’s It’s Your Letters may have become It’s Your WhatsApps, but this new era of TFI feels very familiar. Still managing to bottle that “first pint at the pub” vibe, your appetite for it depends on how much of Chris Evans’s unstoppable energy you can stomach. Priya Elan
Film choice
Wuthering Heights (Emerald Fennell, 2026) 8.25am, 8pm, Sky Cinema Premiere
Emerald Fennell has done a grand job dialling up the scandal over her new adaptation of Emily Brontë’s windswept novel. But aside from the casting of a white actor (Jacob Elordi) as the arguably non-white Heathcliff – and an unexpected S&M subplot – this is the bodice-ripping historical romance most fans would wish for. Margot Robbie plays Cathy as a frustrated social climber torn between a life of luxury with Shazad Latif’s Edgar and the earthy lust offered by the uncouth Heathcliff. For its look, Fennell goes full gothic, a la Guillermo del Toro, with stormy skies, unbridled sex on the moors, ludicrous costumes and often bizarre interior design, as the love story comes to a boil. Simon Wardell
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