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UK house prices in surprise increase; NatWest braces for slowing economy – business live | Business

Published

2 months ago

May 1, 2026

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Key events

Mark Sweney

Here’s more on NatWest’s economic modelling in response to the Iran war: the bank said the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East could cost it £140m amid slowing growth and rising inflation even as it reported profits ahead of expectations.

Overall, the FTSE 100 lender booked a £283m impairment charge and said that almost half of that was because of a reassessment of its economic forecast to “reflect increased geopolitical risk and weaker equity markets”.

The bank said it expects its base case for UK gross domestic product growth to be only 0.4% this year, half that forecast by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month.

You can read more here:

Oil prices up with no end of Iran blockade in sight

US President Donald Trump, accompanied by Republican members of Congress, speaks to reporters after signing executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House on 30 April. Photograph: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Donald Trump has said he will stick with the US’s “incredible” blockade of the strait of Hormuz, with little sign that talks over reopening it are likely. Yet oil prices look like they are off their two-year peak of more than $126 per barrel of Brent crude on Thursday.

Brent crude futures are trading at $110 today, but that does not actually mean prices have dropped. Futures prices refer to a specific month of delivery, and the contract watched by financial markets changes at the end of each month. The price of crude for the new front month, July, is up by about 1% on Friday.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered a global energy crisis, as Iran responded by closing the strait and strangling about a fifth of global oil supplies. Yet despite the electoral risks to Trump from surging gasoline prices (not to mention a potential global food crisis), there appears to be little sign of movement to reopen the strait.

“Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible, the power of the blockade is incredible,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “Their economy is a disaster. So we’ll see how long they hold out.”

Jim Reid, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients:

Oil prices have continued to creep higher overnight, with no sign that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal. Given the month-end, there’s been a contract roll, but if we stick with the July 2026 contract for consistency, Brent crude is up +1.07% this morning to $111.58/bbl. Moreover, Trump showed no sign of backing down […]

Meanwhile, there’s been no sign of comprise from the Iranian side, with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issuing a statement that Iran would maintain its missile and nuclear capabilities and suggesting that Iran would implement “new legal frameworks” over the Strait of Hormuz.

NatWest is now the biggest faller on the FTSE 100, down 3.7% after analysts suggested that its underlying profits were slightly weaker than expected.

Gary Greenwood, banks analyst at Shore Capital, said that profits before tax benefited from “stronger-than-expected notable items in income and slightly lower costs”, but once those were stripped out “underlying performance was a touch weaker than expected”. In a note to clients, Greenwood wrote:

While management has upgraded [2026] income guidance to the top end of the £17.2bn to £17.6bn range, this remains below current consensus of £18.0bn and may therefore disappoint, especially given the first quarter miss on this metric.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, an investment platform, said:

With high performance comes high expectations, and NatWest has slipped today in terms of outlook rather than delivery. The slightly bearish reaction to the numbers reflects the disappointment, although in context it does little to derail the group’s onward march. The shares have risen by 22% over the last year, as has the wider FTSE100, and by 90% over the last two years.

At the other end of the FTSE 100, AstraZeneca is among the biggest fallers after US regulators voted against recommending its new breast cancer drug. Its shares were down 1.9% in early trading.

A US Food and Drug Administration committee voted against recommending the pharmaceutical company’s camizestrant by six votes to three.

Susan Galbraith, executive vice president of oncology haematology R&D at AstraZeneca, said:

We are disappointed with the mixed outcome of today’s [committee] meeting. We strongly believe in the results of the SERENA-6 trial, and are encouraged that the committee saw camizestrant as a safe and effective potential new medicine. We remain confident in the clinical benefit the combination can bring to patients by changing therapeutic strategy at the earliest opportunity, and are committed to challenging the status quo in the pursuit of innovation that optimises outcomes for patients.

Diageo shares rise after Trump removes whisky tariffs

A bartender takes a bottle of Johnnie Walker whisky at a bar in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Photograph: Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters

And we’re off, in London at least. Top of the FTSE 100 this morning is Diageo, the drinks maker. It makes brands including Guinness but also, more pertinently this morning, a bevy of Scotch bevvies.

Diageo executives will be raising a glass to King Charles, after Donald Trump last night announced that the US would drop all tariffs on Scotch whisky in the royal family’s honour.

Trump said in a post on social media:

In Honor of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful Country, I will be removing the Tariffs and Restrictions on Whiskey having to do with Scotland’s ability to work with the Commonwealth of Kentucky on Whiskey and Bourbon.

The King and Queen got me to do something nobody else was able to do, without hardly even asking!

Shares in Diageo rose by 2% in early trading above £15. Its whisky brands include Johnnie Walker, Lagavulin, Talisker, the Singleton and Mortlach. Whisky and most other UK exports had been subject to 10% tariffs.

It is likely to be a quiet morning on equity markets, as most of the major indices around Europe are closed – and on that note, happy May Day!

But London is still open for trading (and closed on Monday). Futures prices suggest the FTSE 100 is due to dip by 0.3%.

UK house prices up surprise 0.4% in April; NatWest profits up

British homebuyers defied a bleak economic mood and the Iran war to push house prices up by 0.4% in April, surprising economists who had on average expected a decline.

Annual house price growth picked up to 3.0% in April, from 2.2% in March, according to data published on Friday by Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society. That put the average price at £278,880.

Nationwide said the increase in prices reflected resilience in the housing market, despite measures of economic sentiment declining, and the backdrop of the US-Israeli war in Iran threatening inflation because of higher oil prices.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:

Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.

This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably. GfK’s headline index has fallen to its lowest level since late‑2023, reflecting households’ more pessimistic views of the economic outlook and their own financial position over the year ahead.

Ashley Webb, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said:

The surprisingly strong rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in April shows that house prices have continued to gain momentum despite the falls in consumer confidence and the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war. But the growing upside risks to our mortgage rate forecast from the most recent rise in oil prices suggests this strength is unlikely to last.

NatWest Group reports higher profits despite economic gloom

NatWest reported higher profits of £1.4bn in the first quarter of the year, despite the UK banking group setting aside an extra £140m in case of the economy worsening.

The bank, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland, said that it expects income for the year to reach the top end of its expected range of between £17.2bn and £17.6bn.

Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, said it was a “strong performance in the first quarter of 2026”.

We have started the year with positive momentum, underpinned by healthy customer activity – growing all of our three businesses, expanding our capabilities to meet more of our customers’ needs and further improving productivity as we use AI at scale across the bank.

The agenda

9:30am BST: Bank of England consumer credit (March; previous: £1.9bn; consensus: £1.8bn)
9:30am BST: Bank of England mortgage approvals (March; previous: 62,580; consensus: 60,000)
1:15pm BST: Bank of England – speech by Huw Pill, chief economist

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Gasps and tears in court as 10 more sentenced over Ely riots

Published

51 minutes ago

June 18, 2026

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The deaths of teenagers Kyrees Sullivan and Harvey Evans sparked hours of violence and vandalism.

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Supreme court sides with Texas marijuana user who wants to own a firearm in latest case expanding gun rights – live | US supreme court

Published

2 hours ago

June 18, 2026

info@oxinfo.co.uk

Supreme court backs challenge to ban on gun ownership for drug users

The supreme court has sided with a marijuana user who wants to legally own a gun, the latest in a line of firearm cases from a court that has expanded gun rights.

In a 9-0 ruling, the justices sided with Ali Danial Hemani, a resident of Texas who was charged with felony gun possession after he acknowledged being a regular marijuana user. Hemani wasn’t charged with any other crimes or accused of using the weapon under the influence.

The 1968 Gun Control Act makes possession of a firearm illegal for anyone ⁠who “is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance”.

That gun restriction led to the 2024 conviction of Hunter Biden, who later that year received a pardon from his father, then-president Joe Biden. Prosecutors had accused him of lying about his use ⁠of narcotics in 2018 when he purchased a Colt Cobra handgun.

Hemani argued that a federal law barring gun ownership from anyone who uses drugs illegally violates the constitution’s second amendment.

The decision is a loss for the Trump administration, which had defended the 1968 law despite arguing against other gun restrictions.

Key events

Supreme court releases opinions

The supreme court has started releasing opinions, so far it has issued a ruling backing a challenge to a federal law barring drug users from owning guns.

We’ll bring you any more updates here as we get them.

Indeed, this morning’s Washington Post Early Brief (paywall) asks the question: “Are we back to where we started on Iran?”

The memorandum ends the fighting, reopens the strait of Hormuz and gives Trump a chance to claim he prevented a broader economic crisis. But many of its core terms appear to return the US and Iran to roughly where they were before the conflict: with Iran’s government still in power and its long-term nuclear commitments still unresolved.

Before the war, the strait of Hormuz saw the free flow of shipping, including roughly a fifth of the world’s oil traffic. Reopening the water way essentially restores the status quo.

Iran and the US had also already engaged in negotiations – albeit brokenly – on a framework over Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions. The negotiations were in pursuit of a deal to replace the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama, which Trump vehemently criticized and left during his first term.

The terms of the MOU diverge substantially from Trump’s initial threats to obliterate Iran unless it agreed to “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” back in March. And it diverged from long-standing conservative criticisms of Obama’s deal that lifted sanctions on Iran.

After Donald Trump’s signing of the 14-point agreement with Iran yesterday at the Palace of Versailles – the home of humiliating treaties – the question of what the president’s war was actually for continues to divide some Republicans and foreign policy hawks.

GOP senator Lindsey Graham, a key Trump ally, appeared to soften his view of the memorandum of understanding yesterday (from this to this) after a “very lengthy and productive” conversation with US special envoy Steve Witkoff.

“After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States, in as much as the strait of Hormuz will begin to open, and the hostilities with Iran will stop,” Graham wrote on X. “Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying.”

But a handful of other Senate Republicans were more scathing in their views.

Outgoing Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy, who Trump failed to back in a tightly fought primary last month, said that the whole affair had Ronald Reagan “rolling over in his grave”. He wrote on X:

Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future.

Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.

Ted Cruz, who has backed the war, said the president was getting “very poor advice when it comes to this deal”.

Susan Rice, a former official in the Obama and Biden administrations was more blunt in her assessment, calling it “the biggest national security blunder in decades”, while Democratic senator Adam Schiff said it was “hard to imagine a more thorough capitulation”.

Iran gets sanctions relief, the release of frozen funds, the ability to export oil, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund. The US gets a reiteration of the vague promise Iran won’t develop a nuke.

In case you missed it, last night Donald Trump signed a 14-point agreement with Iran, claiming it delivered a “major win” for the United States – even as it made significant political and financial concessions to Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz and prevent a “worldwide depression”.

In extraordinary remarks yesterday, Trump went from threatening Iran with a new wave of attacks to suggesting the country had basic rights to enrich uranium for civilian use, that he would not pressure Tehran to abandon its ballistic missiles programme and the US was “going to have to give back” billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.

Those remarks, as well as the full text of the agreement – which was hailed by the Hezbollah chief, Naim Qassem, as a “great victory” – are likely to fuel anger in Israel and among hardliners in the Republican party who had urged Trump not to make a deal with Tehran.

Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed the agreement yesterday from Tehran. US vice-president JD Vance is also expected to sign the deal at a more formal ceremony in Geneva tomorrow.

Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said:

The agreement is a record of US failure. People will see it and judge.

Trump signs 14-point peace agreement with Iran - video — Trump signs 14-point peace agreement with Iran – video

Supreme court to release opinions with several high-stakes rulings to come including birthright citizenship

Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog.

The supreme court is expected to render at least one judgment today as the term is set to come to an end later this month. There are a series of cases yet to be decided that are relevant to Donald Trump, including his attempt to limit birthright citizenship and plan to remove legal protection from Haitian and Syrian immigrants.

Generally, terms last between October and late June – but the most significant cases are often left until the end of the term.

There are two main immigration-based decisions yet to be made. One pending ruling is on Trump’s desire to ban birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants and those whose parents are temporary residents.

“Birthright citizenship is one of America’s most consequential commitments – the idea that where you are born, not where your parents came from, determines your belonging to this nation,” said Adam Strom, executive director and co-founder of Reimagining Migration, in The74. “For the millions of immigrant-origin children in our schools, this isn’t an abstraction. It’s the ground they stand on.”

The court also has a case that will decide if the US can terminate the Temporary Protected Status that has allowed Haitian and Syrian immigrants to live and work in the country.

Other significant cases include Trump’s wish to fire a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors.

President Donald Trump. Photograph: dts News Agency Germany/Shutterstock

In other news:

Donald Trump has signed a 14-point agreement with Iran, claiming it delivered a “major win” for the US. The Guardian’s Andrew Roth argues that the US entered war with maximalist goals and exited it with a pragmatic decision to end conflict despite political cost.
A teenager has died after being thrown to the ground on Wednesday when a Central Park carriage horse bolted away from its driver, police in New York have said.
On Wednesday, court proceedings revealed that Luigi Mangione’s legal team plans on pursuing a psychiatric defense during his upcoming Manhattan state court trial over the killing of UnitedHealthcare executive Brian Thompson.