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China warns US about Taiwan ahead of Trump’s visit to Beijing | China
China’s foreign minister on Thursday urged the US to maintain “stability” between the two powers and warned that Taiwan posed the biggest risk, weeks ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing.
In a call with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, foreign minister Wang Yi said that Beijing and Washington should “safeguard the hard-won stability” in China-US relations, China’s foreign ministry said.
The talks also discussed the Middle East, where China has been a key partner of Tehran but has largely kept its distance after Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran, sending global oil prices spiralling.
A state department official confirmed the phone call and said it was to arrange Trump’s trip but did not give further details.
Trump is scheduled to visit China on 14-15 May to see President Xi Jinping – his first trip to the rival power since returning to the White House in January 2025.
During Trump’s first year back in office, Washington and Beijing clashed over trade and tariffs until a truce was declared in October, when Trump and Xi met in South Korea.
“Both sides should safeguard the hard-won stability, prepare well for key high-level interactions, expand areas of cooperation” and manage their differences, Wang told Rubio, according to a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry.
While ties have “generally remained stable” under Trump and Xi, Wang “emphasised that the Taiwan issue concerns China’s core interests and is the biggest risk point in China-US relations”, it said.
Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification and is sharply critical of US military assistance to the self-ruled island and its support of Taipei on the international stage.
“The United States must honour its commitments and make the right choices, opening new perspectives for bilateral cooperation and do its part to promote world peace,” Wang said.
The statement from the Chinese ministry said Wang and Rubio had “exchanged views” on the situation in the Middle East, without offering further details.
The US president said he would lift restrictions on Scotland’s ability to work with the state of Kentucky on whisky and bourbon.
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UK house prices in surprise increase; NatWest braces for slowing economy – business live | Business
Key events
Mark Sweney
Here’s more on NatWest’s economic modelling in response to the Iran war: the bank said the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East could cost it £140m amid slowing growth and rising inflation even as it reported profits ahead of expectations.
Overall, the FTSE 100 lender booked a £283m impairment charge and said that almost half of that was because of a reassessment of its economic forecast to “reflect increased geopolitical risk and weaker equity markets”.
The bank said it expects its base case for UK gross domestic product growth to be only 0.4% this year, half that forecast by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month.
You can read more here:
Oil prices up with no end of Iran blockade in sight
Donald Trump has said he will stick with the US’s “incredible” blockade of the strait of Hormuz, with little sign that talks over reopening it are likely. Yet oil prices look like they are off their two-year peak of more than $126 per barrel of Brent crude on Thursday.
Brent crude futures are trading at $110 today, but that does not actually mean prices have dropped. Futures prices refer to a specific month of delivery, and the contract watched by financial markets changes at the end of each month. The price of crude for the new front month, July, is up by about 1% on Friday.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered a global energy crisis, as Iran responded by closing the strait and strangling about a fifth of global oil supplies. Yet despite the electoral risks to Trump from surging gasoline prices (not to mention a potential global food crisis), there appears to be little sign of movement to reopen the strait.
“Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible, the power of the blockade is incredible,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “Their economy is a disaster. So we’ll see how long they hold out.”
Jim Reid, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients:
Oil prices have continued to creep higher overnight, with no sign that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal. Given the month-end, there’s been a contract roll, but if we stick with the July 2026 contract for consistency, Brent crude is up +1.07% this morning to $111.58/bbl. Moreover, Trump showed no sign of backing down […]
Meanwhile, there’s been no sign of comprise from the Iranian side, with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issuing a statement that Iran would maintain its missile and nuclear capabilities and suggesting that Iran would implement “new legal frameworks” over the Strait of Hormuz.
NatWest is now the biggest faller on the FTSE 100, down 3.7% after analysts suggested that its underlying profits were slightly weaker than expected.
Gary Greenwood, banks analyst at Shore Capital, said that profits before tax benefited from “stronger-than-expected notable items in income and slightly lower costs”, but once those were stripped out “underlying performance was a touch weaker than expected”. In a note to clients, Greenwood wrote:
While management has upgraded [2026] income guidance to the top end of the £17.2bn to £17.6bn range, this remains below current consensus of £18.0bn and may therefore disappoint, especially given the first quarter miss on this metric.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, an investment platform, said:
With high performance comes high expectations, and NatWest has slipped today in terms of outlook rather than delivery. The slightly bearish reaction to the numbers reflects the disappointment, although in context it does little to derail the group’s onward march. The shares have risen by 22% over the last year, as has the wider FTSE100, and by 90% over the last two years.
At the other end of the FTSE 100, AstraZeneca is among the biggest fallers after US regulators voted against recommending its new breast cancer drug. Its shares were down 1.9% in early trading.
A US Food and Drug Administration committee voted against recommending the pharmaceutical company’s camizestrant by six votes to three.
Susan Galbraith, executive vice president of oncology haematology R&D at AstraZeneca, said:
We are disappointed with the mixed outcome of today’s [committee] meeting. We strongly believe in the results of the SERENA-6 trial, and are encouraged that the committee saw camizestrant as a safe and effective potential new medicine. We remain confident in the clinical benefit the combination can bring to patients by changing therapeutic strategy at the earliest opportunity, and are committed to challenging the status quo in the pursuit of innovation that optimises outcomes for patients.
Diageo shares rise after Trump removes whisky tariffs
And we’re off, in London at least. Top of the FTSE 100 this morning is Diageo, the drinks maker. It makes brands including Guinness but also, more pertinently this morning, a bevy of Scotch bevvies.
Diageo executives will be raising a glass to King Charles, after Donald Trump last night announced that the US would drop all tariffs on Scotch whisky in the royal family’s honour.
Trump said in a post on social media:
In Honor of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful Country, I will be removing the Tariffs and Restrictions on Whiskey having to do with Scotland’s ability to work with the Commonwealth of Kentucky on Whiskey and Bourbon.
The King and Queen got me to do something nobody else was able to do, without hardly even asking!
Shares in Diageo rose by 2% in early trading above £15. Its whisky brands include Johnnie Walker, Lagavulin, Talisker, the Singleton and Mortlach. Whisky and most other UK exports had been subject to 10% tariffs.
It is likely to be a quiet morning on equity markets, as most of the major indices around Europe are closed – and on that note, happy May Day!
But London is still open for trading (and closed on Monday). Futures prices suggest the FTSE 100 is due to dip by 0.3%.
UK house prices up surprise 0.4% in April; NatWest profits up
British homebuyers defied a bleak economic mood and the Iran war to push house prices up by 0.4% in April, surprising economists who had on average expected a decline.
Annual house price growth picked up to 3.0% in April, from 2.2% in March, according to data published on Friday by Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society. That put the average price at £278,880.
Nationwide said the increase in prices reflected resilience in the housing market, despite measures of economic sentiment declining, and the backdrop of the US-Israeli war in Iran threatening inflation because of higher oil prices.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:
Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.
This is somewhat surprising given that indicators of consumer confidence have weakened noticeably. GfK’s headline index has fallen to its lowest level since late‑2023, reflecting households’ more pessimistic views of the economic outlook and their own financial position over the year ahead.
Ashley Webb, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said:
The surprisingly strong rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in April shows that house prices have continued to gain momentum despite the falls in consumer confidence and the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war. But the growing upside risks to our mortgage rate forecast from the most recent rise in oil prices suggests this strength is unlikely to last.
NatWest Group reports higher profits despite economic gloom
NatWest reported higher profits of £1.4bn in the first quarter of the year, despite the UK banking group setting aside an extra £140m in case of the economy worsening.
The bank, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland, said that it expects income for the year to reach the top end of its expected range of between £17.2bn and £17.6bn.
Paul Thwaite, NatWest’s chief executive, said it was a “strong performance in the first quarter of 2026”.
We have started the year with positive momentum, underpinned by healthy customer activity – growing all of our three businesses, expanding our capabilities to meet more of our customers’ needs and further improving productivity as we use AI at scale across the bank.
The agenda
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9:30am BST: Bank of England consumer credit (March; previous: £1.9bn; consensus: £1.8bn)
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9:30am BST: Bank of England mortgage approvals (March; previous: 62,580; consensus: 60,000)
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1:15pm BST: Bank of England – speech by Huw Pill, chief economist
A shortage of fertiliser due to the Iran conflict could reduce crop yields and push prices higher, says the boss of Yara.
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