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Heathrow third runway GDP yield may be 90% less than original estimate | Heathrow airport

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The economic boost from a Heathrow third runway could be a tiny fraction of previous estimates, new government analysis shows, while the overall trade-off from the bigger airport could set the UK back by as much £62.5bn.

As ministers promised to speed up expansion of the London airport in the name of economic growth, documents prepared by the Department for Transport said the runway was expected to boost GDP by only up to 0.05% – 90% less than the 0.5% previously stated.

The figures, described as historically bad by one economist, put the arguments for a third runway in fresh doubt. The DfT calculates the net present value of the scheme, even if entirely privately financed, to be between -£23.4bn and £-62.5bn. Net present value is defined by the DfT as the overall social value of expanding Heathrow, compared with not doing it, adding all costs and benefits.

That figure incorporates between £29bn-£42.4bn in positive benefits to passengers – primarily, lower air fares – and wider economic benefits.

But the government’s assessment is that those gains are outweighed by the social and environmental impact of building the runway. Profits at airlines and other airports are expected to fall by around £25bn, according to the appraisal.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has championed rapid expansion of Heathrow in the name of economic growth, which she described as “this government’s top priority” as the consultation for the next stage of legislative was launched on Thursday.

The documents state that “external analysis, commissioned by the DfT, has found that the scheme could add up to 0.05% to GDP in 2056”.

Figures previously cited by the government have been in the range of 0.43%-0.5% growth.

Heathrow said the new figures did not capture all the economic benefits, while a government spokesperson said they were “only part of the picture”.

However, Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the New Economics Foundation said: “In its desperation for a fraction of a percent of GDP growth, this government has lost its way. They said they were backing Heathrow expansion for economic reasons but their own analysis shows it won’t deliver.

“The results from the department’s impact assessment must be some of the worst in history, and reflect what we’ve been saying for the past year: the economic argument for expansion does not add up.”

A DfT spokesperson said: “Net present value is just one part of the overall picture – crucially, an expanded Heathrow could support over 60,000 new local jobs and deliver £40bn of benefits to the UK.

“This will attract international investment and strengthen Britain’s connectivity, and we have been clear that expansion will be financed by the private sector.”

Heathrow said the DfT appraisal model excluded other ways in which expansion could increase the UK’s economic competitiveness and did not capture the value of UK trade.

It said the Treasury had consistently found that a bigger airport would grow the economy and benefit the UK, and was backed by trade unions, regional airports and businesses.

The documents were published as the government announced the next stage in rapid approval of the third runway, with a consultation before a MPs vote, and ministers promising spades in the ground by 2029.

Heathrow’s proposed 3,500-metre runway would divert the M25 motorway and demolish about 800 homes, to add about 276,000 extra flights a year. The scheme is estimated to cost £33bn, although a recent independent assessment for the Civil Aviation Authority said the project was likely to cost between £32.7bn and £52.4bn.

A DfT health impact assessment separately showed that the third runway could significantly harm the health and wellbeing of up to 3 million people living near Heathrow. The official report said an expanded Heathrow was also likely to worsen access to housing, education, healthcare, open space, and transport, as well as affect water quality and community cohesion.

The Lib Dem transport spokesperson, Olly Glover, said: “Labour can’t show how a Heathrow expansion squares with our climate commitments, or that it can be delivered anywhere near legal noise and air pollution limits.”

“Real leadership delivers economic progress without trashing our climate commitments or steamrolling the communities in the flight path.”



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M60 traffic: Rush hour chaos as 'police-led incident' sparks motorway closure

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A stretch of the motorway has been closed due to a police-led incident.


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‘Leicester Square, please guv’: Self-driving taxis cleared for London streets ‘later this summer’ | Self-driving cars

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The taxi app company Uber and the autonomous technology developer Wayve have been granted the first minicab licences in London, allowing them to offer self-driving taxi rides to paying customers – but with a human safety driver in place, for now.

The companies said they would start trips in the UK “later this summer” before the full public launch.

The San Francisco-headquartered Uber and London-based Wayve are racing against the Google-owned Waymo and its Chinese equivalent Baidu’s Apollo Go to launch self-driving taxi services in London. Their progress is being watched closely because the British capital will be one of the first cities in the world to have American and Chinese tech firms operating on the same roads.

Uber and Wayve said more than 100,000 Londoners were on their waiting list for the self-driving taxis.

Transport for London (TfL), the capital’s licensing authority, granted 15 private hire vehicle licences to Ford Mustang Mach-E vehicles equipped with Wayve’s artificial intelligence driving software, as well as surround cameras and radar. The companies said TfL had confirmed they reached the required safety standards.

A TfL-licensed private hire driver will sit in the driver’s seat during trips to intervene if necessary, although the software is expected to control the car.

The next step, of operating the taxis without a driver, will require Uber and Wayve to seek approval via a new process, known as an automated passenger services permit, with the government’s Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency.

TfL said it would monitor the use of the vehicles, and was ready to intervene if passenger safety was compromised.

A TfL spokesperson said: “Safety is our top priority. Any new vehicle licensed to carry passengers on London’s roads must align with our Vision Zero goal of eliminating all deaths and serious injuries from collisions on London’s streets by 2041.”

Wayve, which was co-founded by the New Zealand-born Alex Kendall, has been testing its tech in London since 2018 with safety drivers. In previous demonstrations to the Guardian the car has navigated most of the obstacles of north London’s busy roads, although the safety driver was forced to intervene at one point.

Sarah Gates, Wayve’s vice-president for global affairs and assurance, said: “This licence is an important step towards giving Londoners the chance to experience autonomous driving technology.

“The responsible deployment of these vehicles will bring us safer, cleaner and quieter streets, and we’re proud to continue working alongside regulators, communities and the public as we take the next steps towards making autonomous rides a reality in the capital.”

Autonomous driving systems usually incorporate surround cameras and radar. Wayve also utilises AI. Photograph: The Lightwriter/Alamy

Driverless taxi services are already operating in several cities around the world, although mainly in the US and China, where most of the software developers are based. However, US companies are essentially blocked from China, and vice versa, meaning they have not had to compete directly.

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Uber abandoned its own efforts to develop self-driving technology in 2020, but it is working with several partners around the world who are in turn using different systems. That includes the Chinese company WeRide, which is operating driverless taxis in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Wayve is also working with the Japanese manufacturer Nissan on integrating its tech in private cars.

Uber’s global head of autonomous mobility operations, Annie Duvnjak, said: “This licence is a key milestone in bringing autonomous rides to London on Uber.

“Our interest list has seen an incredible response from Londoners who are excited to experience Wayve’s British-built autonomous driving technology.”

The news came as Uber reported better than expected second-quarter gross bookings of $58.02bn (£43bn), but said earnings for the next quarter would fall below Wall Street forecasts.

Uber said earnings per share would come in between ​84 cents and 88 cents, compared with analysts’ expectations of 89 cents, with foreign exchange costs trimming booking growth.

The company also outlined ‌plans to spend more than $10bn on autonomous vehicles over the coming years, although it did not provide a specific ‌timeline.



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Gatwick airport to open second runway after legal challenge fails | Gatwick airport

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Gatwick airport is to start development of its second runway after campaigners lost a legal challenge to the plans.

The court of appeal on Tuesday dismissed a bid by local campaign groups to challenge an earlier high court ruling that the scheme could proceed.

The £2.2bn project, approved by the transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, in September, will allow about 100,000 more flights a year to use Britain’s second busiest airport.

Pierre-Hugues Schmit, the Gatwick chief executive, said the airport was “very pleased that this ruling brings to an end an eight-year planning and legal process which has carefully tested and scrutinised every aspect of our expansion plans on multiple occasions”.

The plans will involve the West Sussex airport slightly repositioning its emergency runway and using it routinely for short-haul passenger aircraft. It is now among the busiest single-runway airports in the world, but hopes to have the second runway in operation as early as 2030.

The government declared the court ruling a “major milestone for Gatwick and for local communities”.

Alexander said: “Around 13 million more passengers and 100,000 more flights will give holidaymakers greater choice and strengthen global links to help make the UK one of the most attractive places in the world to invest.

“We’ll back expansion that supports growth and our climate goals. To drive forward sustainable change, we’re also investing more than £219m for green fuel production to cut emissions from flying and secure the future of aviation.”

Campaigners had sought a judicial review of the Department for Transport’s decision to approve the plans, arguing that the government did not properly assess the scheme’s climate impact.

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One of the applicants, Peter Barclay, the chair of Gatwick Area Conservation Campaign, said he was disappointed with the ruling but added: “It is time for governments to wake up and realise that saying yes to the expansion of any and every airport will not kickstart the economy … It will further lock in aviation’s climate, noise and air pollution impacts, increase congestion on roads and public transport and blight local communities.”

Meanwhile, Luton Rising, the council-owned company behind Luton airport, announced that all legal challenges to its expansion plans had now been cleared. The supreme court has dismissed any final possibility of appealing a high court ruling last November upholding Alexander’s signoff on plans to increase the airport’s annual capacity from 19 million to 32 million passengers by the mid-2040s.

The airport owner said it would create up to 11,000 new jobs and generate up to an additional £1.5bn in annual economic activity, and pledged strict controls on noise and carbon emissions, air quality and surface access to the airport.



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