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Revealed: the new affordable commuter hotspots in Great Britain | Property

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The commuter belt is being redrawn. During Covid, in the hope that remote working would stick, buyers broke free from conventions and transformed the housing map. A race for space – and to the coast and rural areas – were the stories of the pandemic.

As the call back to the office intensified, this trend unwound and homebuyers began targeting the more traditional commuter zones once again. Unfortunately, the homebuying landscape is very different to five years ago and some of those locations are unaffordable.

The cost of living is significantly higher, as are mortgage repayment costs. There is arguably little help now for first-time buyers and, while house prices in London have softened (in some areas), the capital remains entirely unaffordable for many.

Priced-out first-time buyers are competing with second and third steppers for homes in the commuter belt, and with downsizers who are relocating from rural locations to be close to transport links and grandchildren.

Thousands of people commute to London as living in the capital remains unaffordable for many. Photograph: alice-photo/Shutterstock

“Britain’s traditional commuter belts have shrunk back down after the pandemic, but they are not as compact as they were before, with buyers searching for value,” says Frances McDonald of Savills. That translates as being pushed into new areas where prices are still affordable.

“New infrastructure has driven changes, too,” she adds. As an example, she says: “The Elizabeth line has opened up the westerly home counties for those working in the City and Canary Wharf.”

Research from Savills shared exclusively with Guardian Money reveals the new affordable commuter hotspots – suburbs, towns and villages with a direct service into London, Birmingham, Manchester and Edinburgh. These are places where entrances and exits into the local railway station have soared since before the pandemic as commuters get cute and hunt out new locations that work for them.

The analysis takes railway station use and house prices into account and combines them to show which locations are proving popular and yet affordable in 2026.


London’s commuter belt

Travel time 19–29 minutes

Iver, Buckinghamshire

Train time: 24 minutes (into London Paddington). Season ticket cost: £2,868 a year. Average house price in 2025: £539,575

Iver ticks a lot of boxes for commuters. Photograph: Greg Balfour Evans/Alamy

Iver ticks a lot of boxes. Average house prices reflect the fact it is in Buckinghamshire rather than Greater London. The Elizabeth line stops at Iver station (actually in neighbouring Richings Park) and reaches Canary Wharf in just over 40 minutes. There is a gym, a park, a village hall, a fish and chip shop, a primary school (with a “good” rating from Ofsted) and two pubs. It is part of a belt of villages: Iver Heath, Richings Park and Shreding Green, all to the north-east of Slough and all popular with commuters.

Shenfield, Essex

Train time: 23 minutes (into London Liverpool Street). Season ticket cost: £4,008 a year. Average house price in 2025: £656,159

Shenfield and the wider Brentwood area attract family buyers. Photograph: cre8/Alamy

The rail service from Shenfield into London is “turn up and go”, says Stephen White of Savills. “There is a train about every five minutes, so you don’t need to keep an eye on the time.” For first-time buyers, the cluster of flats around the station presents a chance to get on the ladder, with prices from £170,000, but it is mainly families buying in Shenfield and the wider Brentwood area, drawn by schools and green space. “We see a lot of buyers from Wapping, Islington and Shoreditch – often they have small children and want a larger home,” White says. There’s a four-bedroom detached house for sale for £850,000 on the edge of parkland, while the bigger five-bedroom properties break through the £1m threshold. There is better value for money in neighbouring villages, according to Paul Cromwell of Bairstow Eves. He suggests Pilgrims Hatch and Doddinghurst.

Twyford, Berkshire

Train time: 21 minutes (into London Paddington). Season ticket cost: £4,764. Average house price in 2025: £553,597

Twyford has a village-like feel. Photograph: D Callcut/Alamy

More expensive than Reading but cheaper than Henley-on-Thames or Marlow, Twyford has a village-like feel and a thriving scene of independent cafes, bars and restaurants. There are yoga studios, and the Bia Cycling Club (women only) takes to the surrounding lanes. Big events include the fete in the summer and a beer festival. House prices have ticked up with the arrival of the Elizabeth line, says Haydon Canavan of Grapevine estate agents. “This is a busy local market, with families moving out of London for the schools and to get more house for their money,” he says. Two-bedroom cottages start from £375,000 and three-bedroom, semi-detached homes from £600,000. The most desirable roads, London Road and Wargrave Road, are lined with big detached properties that cost more than £1m. The neighbouring village of Charvil is slightly cheaper and a 15-minute walk to the station.

Travel time 30–59 minutes

Prittlewell, Essex

Train time: 55 minutes (into London Liverpool Street). Season ticket cost: £5,120. Average house price in 2025: £295,326

The suburb of Prittlewell sits to the north of Southend-on-Sea and is home to Southend high school for boys and the university hospital, and close to the airport and open countryside. The Palace theatre is a short walk away, and it is under two miles to the seafront and Chalkwell Beach. Priory Park provides 18 hectares (45 acres) of green along with tennis courts, bowling greens, basketball courts and formal gardens. Just beyond the park is a Waitrose and the Garon Park golf complex. “Most buyers come from London, Ilford and Barking [and are] relocating to be close to the grammar schools,” says Mark Newman of Winkworth estate agents. “There are more houses on the market currently than flats.”

Folkestone West, Kent

Train time: 52 minutes (into London St Pancras International). Season ticket cost: £7,180. Average house price in 2025: £310,304

Folkestone is in the middle of a huge regeneration project. Photograph: David Goddard/Getty Images

A cheaper and smaller alternative to Brighton, with a growing cultural scene. The maritime town is in the throes of a nine-hectare (23-acre) regeneration project transforming the old harbour and railway station into an entertainment and food hub. The promenade is now lined with bars and restaurants, live music venues and food stalls, and at the tip of the harbour arm is a champagne bar housed in the old lighthouse. Residential projects on the surrounding land are under way. For art galleries, head down the cobbled old high street. “Folkestone offers an ideal balance for those commuting two to three days a week,” says Claire Reene of Bairstow Eves. “We are seeing strong demand for period homes near the two train stations. As most buyers want easy access to transport, homes in town are selling faster than those in surrounding villages.” Average prices for semi-detached homes start from about £350,000 to £400,000, and detached homes from £450,000.

Colchester, Essex

Train time: 47 minutes (into London Liverpool Street). Season ticket cost: £6,700. Average house price in 2025: £285,722

Colchester is Britain’s oldest recorded town. Photograph: Nick Hatton/Alamy

Just south of the Suffolk border, commuters come here for access to London, Cambridge or Ipswich and to be surrounded by countryside. Known as Britain’s oldest recorded town, with its centre encircled by ancient Roman walls and an 11th-century castle, Colchester was upgraded to city status as part of the Jubilee celebrations in 2022. It is fast-growing with plenty of new-build developments on the edge. There is high demand for the villages of Great Bentley (with a 17-hectare, or 43-acre, village green) and Alresford (six miles south of the city), according to Simon Andrews of Abbotts estate agents. “We have highly sought-after schools in the area, too, such as Colchester Royal grammar school and St Mary’s Colchester,” he adds.

Sandy, Bedfordshire

Train time: 49 minutes (into London St Pancras). Season ticket cost: £6,152. Average house price in 2025: £310,337

Sandy in Bedfordshire has a host of pubs and restaurants. Photograph: LH Images/Alamy

For its size, Sandy has a lot of state primary schools and one secondary school (Sandy secondary school), all rated “good” by Ofsted, making it a convenient place for families to settle. “Buyers get a lot more for their money than in Hitchin and Stevenage, as it is slightly further out of London,” says Santino Diniro of Taylors estate agents (and Bedfordshire is generally cheaper than Hertfordshire). The number of schools is dwarfed by that of pubs and restaurants, including the 18th-century Queen’s Head, Pecoro (pizza restaurant) and the Indian restaurant the Ivory Lounge. The community comes together at the carnival and garden and craft show. There are after-school clubs and crystal workshops at the coffee shop Brew and Renew, and forest bathing at the Lodge – the RSPB’s headquarters. Michael Graham is selling a detached, four-bedroom, period property on the edge of town for £640,000.

Travel time 60–89 minutes

Corby, Northamptonshire

Train time: 71 minutes (into London St Pancras). Season ticket cost: £10,624. Average house price in 2025: £225,245

Corby has risen in popularity since the station was built in 2009. Photograph: John Robertson/The Guardian

Corby used to be the largest town in England without a railway station. One was built in 2009, and the old industrial town has risen in popularity as a commuter destination ever since. It has plenty of green pockets – West Glebe Park and Great Oakley Park, for example – and it is a half-hour drive to Rutland Water. On the outskirts is Rockingham Forest Park, 200 square miles of ancient woodland. Investment has been poured into the town, namely the Corby East Midlands International Pool and the Cube – an innovative, award-winning civic hub that houses the council, the town hall, the library, arts exhibitions and shows. Homebuyers are attracted to the nearby villages: Little Stanion and Stanion, Great Oakley, Rockingham and Cottingham, says Chris Smith of William H Brown, who sees a lot of buyers signing up for new-build homes at the Priors Hall Park development on the edge of town.

Retford, Nottinghamshire

Train time: 87 minutes (into London King’s Cross). Season ticket cost: £14,504. Average house price in 2025: £212,487

Retford’s market square has a string of cafes and restaurants. Photograph: eye35/Alamy

On the east coast mainline, this market town works for those heading to London two to three days a week, as well as those commuting to Nottingham, Lincoln or Sheffield. Around the market square are cafes and restaurants; there’s bottomless brunch on offer at the Glass Lounge and vegan options at Honey & Fig. There are also local independent breweries such as The Brew Shed and traditional country pubs in the outlying villages. “While many value Retford’s fast east coast mainline services, more buyers are choosing surrounding villages – places such as Barnby Moor, Sutton cum Lound, East Markham and Clarborough – for character homes, bigger gardens and a strong sense of community,” says Roo Fisher of Savills. Local beauty spots include Clumber Park in Sherwood Forest and Idle Valley nature reserve. There are two “good” secondary schools in the town: the Elizabethan academy and Retford Oaks academy. In the heart of the town is a grand Georgian home on sale with five bedrooms for £695,000 with Fine & Country estate agents.

Travel time 90–119 minutes

Doncaster, South Yorkshire

Train time: 91 minutes (into London King’s Cross). Season ticket cost: £16,024. Average house price in 2025: £148,803

An LNER train on the east coast mainline. Photograph: iWebbstock/Alamy

The LNER service options between Doncaster and London suit commuters making the trip to the capital a few times a week. Emma Power of Blundells estate agents says Doncaster attracts commuters who want value for money. She deals with buyers heading out into the villages of Sprotbrough, Cusworth, Armthorpe, Bessacarr, Cantley and Wheatley – all about 10 to 15 minutes from the centre and popular with cyclists because of the scenic routes. There is plenty to be excited about: “The St Leger [horse racing] festival attracts thousands of people to the racecourse each year, over four days, the airport (the Doncaster Sheffield airport) is expected to reopen in 2027-28, and the area is home to Yorkshire Wildlife Park.” She cites bucolic walks around Cusworth Hall and Potteric Carr nature reserve. Property in these villages is far more expensive than within Doncaster itself, with trophy homes that exceed the £1m mark.

Gloucester, Gloucestershire

Train time: 100 minutes (into London Paddington). Season ticket cost: £16,228. Average house price in 2025: £224,850

Gloucester is more affordable than the celebrity-studded areas of the Cotswolds. Photograph: Ben Molyneux Photography/Alamy

The stream of families relocating from London to the Cotswolds remains steady after the race for space. Gloucester is a gateway to the south Cotswolds but property here is more affordable than the celebrity-studded, golden area around Chipping Norton. Lucinda Eaton of the buying advisers Property Vision cites Painswick as an example of a chocolate box village close to Gloucester. The fastest trains from Gloucester and neighbouring Cheltenham take a similar time to arrive in London, and yet the average house price in Gloucester is more than £100,000 lower. There is a grammar school system in Gloucester: the boys-only (until sixth form) Sir Thomas Rich’s school, the girls-only (again until sixth form) Denmark Road high school, and the mixed Crypt school. The increase in commuters using Gloucester station reflects the shift west from Oxfordshire to Gloucestershire and Worcestershire for pretty villages at lower prices, Eaton says.


Birmingham

Wootton Wawen, Warwickshire

Train time: 43 minutes (into Birmingham Moor Street). Season ticket cost: £1,880. Average house price in 2025: £520,711

Wootton Wawen is in a cluster of commuter villages. Photograph: Colin Underhill/Alamy

Wootton Wawen is south of Birmingham, beyond Redditch. It is one of a cluster of commuter villages. There is more value to be had in the surrounding villages, it seems. There is a three-bedroom cottage in almost 1.2 hectares (three acres) with a tack room and stables for £799,950, and a three-bedroom 1970s house for £325,000. The village sits on the River Alne and has two pubs, a primary school and the Yew Tree Farm Shopping Village.

Hartlebury, Worcestershire

Train time: 51/44 minutes (to Birmingham Moor Street and Snow Hill). Season ticket cost: £1,552. Average house price in 2025: £376,790

Hartlebury is not far from Worcester. Photograph: Colin Underhill/Alamy

Worcestershire’s market towns and villages have become the Cotswolds of the Midlands, and are far more reasonable. The strip of villages to the north of Worcester also provides easy and quick access into the vast employment hub of Birmingham. Hartlebury is one such village. It has a castle and a common and several pubs (the Tap House and the Mitre Oak). Worcester is only a 20-minute drive away, while Kidderminster and Bewdley are on the doorstep. Wyre Forest nature reserve suits little explorers with a play park, while keen cyclists and walkers head to the Malvern Hills. There is a three-bedroom period cottage in Hartlebury listed on Rightmove for £260,000.

South Wigston, Leicestershire

Train time: 49 minutes (into Birmingham New Street). Season ticket cost: £3,972. Average house price in 2025: £249,811

Wigston is well placed to access London and Birmingham. The former requires a change at Leicester (only six minutes away on the train) while there is a direct service from South Wigston station to the capital of the Midlands. This suburb to the south of Leicester has plenty of period housing stock and a host of “good” primary schools to choose from, and several “good” secondary school options, too: Wigston Academy and Wigston College. Leicester grammar school is on hand. South Leicester rugby football club is based here and is a major part of the community. In terms of green space, there are country parks, the Grand Union canal and Glen Gorse golf club.


Manchester

Holmes Chapel, Cheshire

Train time: 42 minutes (into Manchester Piccadilly). Season ticket cost: £3,260. Average house price in 2025: £350,304

The Harry Styles walking tour starts at the railway station in Holmes Chapel. Photograph: Mark Waugh/The Guardian

Harry Styles has put Holmes Chapel on the map. He grew up in the town – eight miles north of Crewe and 21 miles south of Manchester – and worked at the bakery. Last year, a mural of the superstar was unveiled at the station. “A walking tour has been established that starts at the station and leads to key sites tied to his youth,” says Crispin Harris of Jackson-Stops estate agents. But there is more to Holmes Chapel than Styles. The historic village has a medieval church and charming cottages. There’s a new artisan market, a doctor’s surgery and a secondary school (Holmes Chapel comprehensive school, ranked good). Four-bedroom detached houses start from about £425,000.

Styal, Cheshire

Train time: 43 minutes (into Manchester Piccadilly). Season ticket cost: £1,596. Average house price in 2025: £411,992

Cottages in Styal, which is known for its historic cotton mill. Photograph: Russell Hart/Alamy

Styal is well positioned for Manchester airport as well as the city centre. The direct trains are less frequent and slightly slower than those running from neighbouring Wilmslow, which is classed as being part of the well-heeled Cheshire “Golden Triangle”. Andrew Thorpe of Savills says: “Styal is a popular and convenient spot and new-build property prices per square foot are about 25% cheaper than in Wilmslow. We see a lot of buyers moving back to the north-west from London, as well as families moving out of Manchester.” Styal sits near the banks of the River Bollin and is best known for its old cotton mill, now maintained by the National Trust. Many of the period cottages in the village were built for the mill workers in the late 18th and early 19th centuries.

Bamford, Derbyshire

Train time: 55 minutes (into Manchester Piccadilly). Season ticket cost: £3,560. Average house price in 2025: £523,615

If you like climbing, then Bamford may be for you. Photograph: Septemberlegs Editorial/Alamy

This is one for climbers. In under an hour, commuters working in Manchester can be among the crags of the Peak District national park. Bamford, nestled in the Hope Valley, is surrounded by beauty spots: Ladybower reservoir, Hordron Edge stone circle and Bamford Edge, with popular routes up the latter’s jutting buttresses. The Hope Valley climbing and training centre is based in Bamford, too. The station for this village is a 15-minute walk away, which, not surprisingly, involves a hill. The social hub of the village is the Anglers Rest pub, owned by the community, and with a post office. There’s a primary school, a bakery and a village hall. “Bamford combines beautiful countryside living with practical convenience and great amenities. Properties here hold their price,” Jackson-Stops’ Harris says.


Edinburgh

Camelon, Stirlingshire

Train time: 36 minutes (into Edinburgh Waverley). Season ticket cost: £2,396. Average house price in 2025: £173,381

The Falkirk Wheel, which connects the Forth & Clyde canal with the Union canal, is close to Camelon. Photograph: Murdo Macleod/The Guardian

The old industrial village of Camelon has become a suburb of Falkirk, which lies in the Forth Valley between Scotland’s two biggest cities. “Even though Camelon has a direct rail service to Edinburgh and Glasgow (similar journey times for each) it has remained under the radar for many buyers until recently. Buyers are being drawn by housing that still feels very sensibly priced, as well as the rail network,” says Andrew Ligertwood of Strutt & Parker estate agents. “What often surprises people is how quickly the town gives way to open space,” he adds. The Forth & Clyde canal is close by, with walking and cycling routes and surrounded by parkland. There are plenty of places to eat without needing to go into Falkirk, such as the Canal Inn and the new restaurant Sea-Salt. Falkirk golf club is on the doorstep.

Fauldhouse, West Lothian

Train time: 36 minutes (into Edinburgh Waverley). Season ticket cost: £2,224. Average house price in 2025: £155,947

Fauldhouse is one of a strip of villages running alongside the A71 as it heads south-west out of Edinburgh, and is enveloped entirely by green and blue spaces, such as Polkemmet country park, Greenburn golf club and Cobbinshaw reservoir. The last is a site of special scientific interest and an important spot for pink-footed geese (and anglers). Overlooking the golf course is a bar and lounge at the golf club, and the Flagstick restaurant is next door. In the centre of the village is the Heatherbell Inn, a community centre and two primary schools. According to Ligertwood, Fauldhouse, and the neighbouring village Addiewell (also with a direct train line to Edinburgh), offer good, family-size homes, on the edge of open countryside. “These places are increasingly becoming considered moves rather than compromises.”

Stirling, Stirlingshire

Train time: 39 minutes (into Edinburgh Waverley). Season ticket cost: £2,396. Average house price in 2025: £215,224

Stirling is dominated by its historic castle. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

In the centre of Scotland, and the gateway to the Highlands, Stirling is a historic city with a vibrant cultural scene. It appeals to students, first-time buyers, families and downsizers alike. Stirling Castle was the childhood home of Mary, Queen of Scots, and has views across the town and to the River Forth. There’s the National Wallace Monument and the Stirling Smith Art Gallery & Museum, and a string of festivals, from whisky and literature to beer and vegan food. “Stirling remains a firmly established commuter town and is emerging as a great alternative to Edinburgh for those buyers priced out of the capital,” Ligertwood says. “Kings Park is a favourite with families – a Victorian conservation area, with good schools, sports clubs and a hospital,” he adds.

Methodology

Savills worked out the best-value areas for housing with a station, and a direct line to London, Birmingham, Manchester or Edinburgh, that have seen station entry and exit numbers exceed their pre-pandemic levels – an indication of demand. Train times quoted are fastest journeys. Data sources: National Rail, Office of Rail and Road, Land Registry



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Seeing red when cyclists decide not to stop at traffic lights | Cycling

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Simon Jenkins is right that traffic rules can feel bureaucratic, but using Hans Monderman’s “shared space” to justify running red lights misses the entire point of Monderman’s philosophy (I’ll admit it: I’ve cycled through red lights. But Britain’s traffic laws are to blame, not me, 21 August).

Monderman didn’t champion anarchy so individuals could cherrypick which laws to follow; he suggested infrastructure be removed precisely to force collective cooperation, eye contact and mutual caution.

The moment cyclists ignore that negotiation process while vulnerable pedestrians are left unprotected, the delicate psychological balance collapses. Freedom without universal accountability isn’t shared space. It is just a system that rewards the most aggressive road user.

That is precisely why high-profile implementations like London’s Exhibition Road faced a fierce backlash and were reversed, and why the UK government eventually halted new level-surface shared-space projects: when compliance breaks down, it is blind and elderly people, and vulnerable pedestrians, who pay the price for an idealised view of human nature.
Gary Ogin
London

As a lifelong cyclist may I point out an alternative view to that of Simon Jenkins? I don’t mind red lights; they offer unplanned fartlek opportunities on a training ride, skill development in maintaining a track stand for an unpredictable length of time, and stomp intervals in getting away from them. And if I’m knackered, a nice unplanned rest and chance to take a drink. I’m not sure Jenkins’ anarchic behaviour and justification for it does much to help the case of cyclists.
Peter Anderson
Barwick-in-Elmet, West Yorkshire

I ride a bike and a motorbike, and drive a car, and on all three I stop at red lights. Cyclists who ignore traffic lights contribute to the growing antagonism towards the rest of us. Simon Jenkins should know better.
Edward Collier
Cheltenham, Gloucestershire

Four years ago, aged 83, I was knocked down by a young man on a bike. Damaged wrist. He rode away quickly after making sure I wasn’t dead. April this year, aged 87, I was knocked down on a pedestrian crossing by a black ebike. Deep wound on leg, police, ambulance, hospital. Four months later, the leg is still being treated. The rider rode off after making sure I wasn’t dead. Shame on you, Simon Jenkins.
Joan Grabham
Cambridge

Have an opinion on anything you’ve read in the Guardian today? Please email us your letter and it will be considered for publication in our letters section.



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UK petrol prices hit highest level in almost four years as bank holiday getaway looms | Petrol prices

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UK petrol prices have hit their highest level since 2022, piling more financial pressure on motorists before the bank holiday weekend.

The average cost of petrol has reached 161.6p a litre, while diesel costs an average of 183.4p a litre, according to the AA breakdown company.

The last time the petrol price was so high was in November 2022, when it soared in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It comes as millions of people prepare to make car journeys over the bank holiday weekend, which will be marked in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The RAC estimates that the UK’s motorways and major roads could have the most traffic since its records began in 2015.

The services company has predicted Friday is likely to be the worst day for heavy traffic, with more than 4.1m cars expected on the roads.

Luke Bosdet of the AA said the rise in petrol prices showed that “UK pump pricing is back to its worst”. It is “too often overpriced and uncompetitive, with too many communities denied road fuel at a reasonable price”, he said.

The Competition and Markets Authority found this summer that many petrol stations were too slow to pass on cuts in wholesale prices to their customers. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

The UK’s competition regulator told fuel retailers this year that it would step up its monitoring of pump prices amid concern over profiteering as the US war with Iran drives up wholesale costs.

Before the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, Brent crude – the international benchmark for oil prices – traded at about $72 a barrel. It hit a peak of $126 a barrel in April, before dipping to $71 at the start of July on hopes of a peace deal. It now trades at $89.63.

The Competition and Markets Authority found this summer that many petrol stations were too slow to pass on falls in wholesale energy prices to their customers.

A government scheme called Fuel Finder allows drivers to compare the cost of fuel offered by petrol stations across the UK. The AA found that in some areas, petrol was sold at about 10p below the national average cost for a litre on Thursday night, at stations in areas such as Aylesbury, Wembley and Gloucester.

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Bosdet said just one competitively priced forecourt “can often pull down the price of fuel locally, including at nearby supermarkets”.

He said: “Drivers just need to find them and go to them.”

Earlier this month the CMA said it had sent out more than 1,000 warning letters to retailers who had failed to share their prices with the Fuel Finder service.



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How Britain’s railways are struggling in the heat – and can they be fixed? | Rail industry

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Britain’s railways have faced a string of heat-related problems this summer, including a derailment near Lewes in East Sussex two weeks ago that injured 30 people, and another the next day when the rear carriages of a Greater Anglia train derailed “in an upright position” at Wickford railway station in Essex, with no reported injuries.

The problems came during one of the hottest and driest summers on record, with a series of heatwaves, and drought declared across large parts of England and Wales. Britain’s railways, built for a cooler, wetter climate, have been put under pressure. Network Rail said the summer had “presented exceptional challenges to the railway”.

Here’s what we know about how heat affects the rail network and what can be done to tackle it.


What happens to railways in the heat?

Steel expands when it gets hot, and the long, welded steel sections that make up modern railway tracks are no exception. “The classic concern for railways with hot weather is that the track might buckle,” said William Powrie, a professor of geotechnical engineering at the University of Southampton.

As temperatures rise, the rails expand, but their continuous design means there is little room for movement. “If they haven’t got anywhere to go, they end up generating compressive stresses,” Powrie said. “The problem with any sort of structure which has got a compression in it is that it can fail by buckling.”

The consequences can be serious. Just two days of record heat in 2022 led to almost 7,700 cancelled trains and an estimated £30m in costs, according to a taskforce set up by Network Rail after that heatwave.

On a hot day, the rail can reach much higher temperatures than the air. Network Rail says most of the network can operate when track temperatures reach up to 46C, roughly equivalent to an air temperature of 30C. But rails have been recorded at temperatures as high as 51C.

The sleepers and ballast that rails sit on can help stop them from buckling, keeping the track in place – but long periods of heat and drought can dry the soil beneath them. That soil can shrink when it dries, a problem given it “is essentially the foundation for anything on top of it”, said Manu Sasidharan, an assistant professor of infrastructure asset management at University College London.

The weight of passing trains makes the problem worse, putting pressure on the weakened soil and causing it to settle unevenly. Whatever sits on top, including the track, “will follow suit”, Sasidharan said.

While tracks and stations have been continually updated over the decades, some embankments, tunnels and other structures date to the 1800s, when much of the network was first laid.


How do hotter countries cope?

To stop rails from buckling, engineers lay them slightly stretched, a process called pre-stressing. It means the rail has some give in it before it starts expanding in the heat.

In the UK, rails are stretched so that they do not undergo compression until the air temperature passes 27C. That figure sits between the UK’s highest and lowest seasonal rail temperatures, protecting against buckling in the summer and breaking under tension in the winter.

Other countries set that figure differently. In parts of Australia and the US, the so-called stress-free air temperature can exceed 35C. In southern Europe too, where winters rarely get as cold as in the UK, rails are designed for more heat, since there’s less risk of the rail snapping in the cold.

“If you’re looking at Italy, where you don’t really get very low winter temperatures, then you can afford to increase the stress-free temperature,” Powrie said. “The problem is the range of temperatures that we have [in the UK] … in the winter, they go into tension and that can cause the rails to break.”

One option, in theory, could be to re-stress rails between seasons, loosening and retensioning them so the stress-free temperature is set higher for summer and lower for winter, rather than fixed year-round.

Network Rail says: “In Britain, the variations in short-term weather and long-term climate mean that it is neither practical nor cost-effective to implement these measures permanently.”

Another option is to lay track on solid concrete slabs, as in some countries, rather than the more common bed of sleepers and ballast. However, slab track costs about four times as much to install as standard ballasted track, which is why it remains rare across most of the UK network.


What can be done?

One idea under discussion is raising the temperature British rails are built to withstand. The post-2022 taskforce said that on modern, well-supported track the stress-free temperature could rise from 27C to 30C.

“You might say we should actually have a different stress-free temperature in the south of England compared to, say, the north of Scotland,” Powrie said. However, higher stress-free temperature also leaves rails more vulnerable in a cold snap.

Simpler measures are already in use. Some sections of track are painted white to reduce how much heat they absorb. Network Rail says a rail painted white is typically 5-10C cooler.

Both tactics may be necessary as summers get hotter – something that will be increasingly normal amid the climate crisis. All five of the UK’s warmest summers on record have happened since 2000, according to the Met Office.

Monitoring for faults remains difficult, though. The Network Rail taskforce found that fewer than half of the track buckles recorded in 2022 had been identified before they happened.

Part of the issue is the sheer amount of data modern trains generate. Many now carry sensors that pick up rough riding or unusual vibrations, but sifting through it all is a challenge that needs to be automated, experts say.

Much, therefore, still relies on judgment rather than data – for example, a train driver detecting rough riding on one part of the line and reporting it.

As a temporary measure, speed restrictions were imposed on trains in southern Essex in the aftermath of the Wickford derailment.


Did the Lewes derailment happen because of the heat?

It’s impossible to say for sure. An interim report by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) found that a “track geometry irregularity” existed before the derailment, and said investigators had since received reports of rough riding from passengers on that stretch of line.

Sasidharan said early evidence pointed to the track itself. “The initial indication of the derailment … is that it’s a track infrastructure fault, most likely,” he said.

At the site of the derailment, the embankment is built on clay, which shrinks more than other types of soils as it dries out. The RAIB said the clay was “sensitive to variations in water content”, and there was evidence it had shifted before the derailment, though not enough to amount to a significant slip.

Powrie said the location had several things working against it at once, making it a case of what safety experts call the “Swiss cheese” theory of accidents, where one only happens when several small failures line up together.

The derailment happened on a bend – where more force is exerted on the track – and close to where the track leaves a bridge and moves on to the embankment.

Powrie said these transition points were a natural weak spot because the track had to cope with a sudden change from something rigid to ground that could shift, especially when it was dried out. “It wouldn’t surprise me if the defect turned out to be related to the dryness,” he said, “but I don’t really want to speculate.”

Network Rail has said it is “fully committed to supporting the continuing investigation and acting on any lessons that emerge from its findings”.

It said: “Safety is and will always remain our highest priority. While Britain’s railway is one of the safest in the world, when incidents like this occur it is essential that we understand exactly what happened and identify any lessons that can be learned.

“Given the complexity of the issues being examined, it is important that the independent investigation is allowed to reach its conclusions. We will continue to cooperate fully with the RAIB throughout this process.”



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