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Police declare terrorist incident after two Jewish men stabbed in London

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Local election campaigning enters final week as forecaster warns Labour could lose 1,850 English seats –UK politics live | Politics

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Good morning. We are now into the final week of campaigning for the Scottish parliament, Welsh Senedd and English local elections. Keir Starmer had been planning a big speech today, but he, and other political leaders, are today focusing on their response to the Golders Green stabbing and the antisemitism threat facing Britain’s Jewish community – described as a “national security emergency” by Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terror legislation. Here is our overnight story. And here is our live blog by Taz Ali.

Taz will be covering most of the political reaction to that story, and so that won’t be something I will be covering here. (And because criminal proceedings are active, comments relating to the attack won’t be allowed below the line, I’m afraid.)

Instead, let’s start with the elections, and a member of the House of Lords called Robert Hayward. Hayward is a Conservative and former MP but at Westminster he is best known as an elections specialist who produces detailed forecasts ahead of elections. They are not always perfect – no forecast is – but they are well-informed, and politically neutral, and Hayward is one of the very few people doing forecasting of this kind whose views are taken seriously by the main political parties. He won’t necessarily tell you exactly what will happen; but he is worth reading if you want to know what the politicos expect to happen (which is useful intelligence because often election results are assessed by how they match up against expectations).

Last night Hayward revealed his forecast on ITV’s Peston.

Robert Hayward’s forecast for English local elections Photograph: ITV’s Peston

And this is how Hayward explains it in his summary.

double quotation markEngland all figures given are net losses and gains

Labour will lose 1850 seats

The losses will be nationwide

What impact on Sir Keir’s role? Given S Times comment re 1500 losses and ‘nervous breakdown’ this is bad news for Sir Keir and Labour.

Reform will be biggest gainer from both Labour and Conservatives, overwhelmingly outside London. They will gain 1550 seats

Will their national equivalent vote be lower than last year? I believe it will be

Conservatives will lose 600 seats many in councils deferred from last year. These seats were previously contested in the vaccine bounce year of 2021.

Do they gain any notable councils or stop Reform from taking control of target councils? Yes

Have they improved on the national equivalent vote last year? About static

Greens will gain 500 seats in London and middle class areas of other cities

Can they take any mayoralties or control any councils? Yes definitely mayoralty possibly a council or two

Lib Dems will gain 150 seats but will need to gain councils to be involved ‘in the conversation’.

Will national equivalent vote share reflect decline in poll position. Yes

Have they lost their position as part of the protest parties? Up to a point.

Independents will gain 250 seats

Many of these will be in east London, Birmingham and Lancs

Other forecasts are available too. I will post more on those soon.

Parliament is not sitting today, and there is not much in the diary. But we won’t be short of politics.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.

If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.

I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

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BBC obtains Northamptonshire Police video of woman’s arrest

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The Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner for Northamptonshire, Danielle Stone, told a panel she and Balhatchet were not made aware of the proceedings for contempt until October last year, but acknowledged there were “huge questions” about the chief constable’s apparent lack of awareness, and has launched a review.



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From Life Itself by Suzy Hansen review – Turkey in the age of Erdoğan | Books

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Thankfully, the attack left only black eyes and bloodied faces. It was in Karagümrük, a tough neighbourhood in Istanbul’s old city, once known for mafia types and Turks on the hard right. But, as Suzy Hansen explains, it had been transformed by an influx of Syrian refugees – until the locals apparently decided they’d had enough, and came for them with sticks, baseball bats and knives for carving doner kebab.

So begins From Life Itself, in which Hansen traces a story that illuminates a politics of mass migration and nationalist backlash that has resonances far beyond Turkey. It is a more ambitious book than that, too. An American who lived in Istanbul and visited Karagümrük for more than a decade – during which Turkey’s enfeebled democracy came under ever more sustained assault – she hoped to convey “how ordinary people experience authoritarianism in the 21st century – how our era feels”.

The first third nonetheless outlines a more or less conventional history of Turkey: from the grand modernising, secularising programmes of its early years to the emergence of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nearly a century later, his rule in so many ways a repudiation of the country’s founding project.

As the work of a journalist well acquainted with her adopted country, From Life Itself is lovingly written and well observed. Hansen has a good eye, for example, for Istanbul’s light, its “pink and gold splendour”. She is alert to aspects of its history that can go underappreciated: not least the central role of internal migration, of peasants arriving to the city “laden with bags of yoghurt or tomatoes from their village”, and the construction boom that followed in their wake.

Where the book really comes alive is when that history catches up to Hansen’s own time in Turkey, and particularly her reporting on Karagümrük and its characters: Hüseyin, the Erdoğan-sympathising market owner; İsmail, the veteran district head, nostalgic for a lost Istanbul; Ebru, an estate agent determined to improve the neighbourhood; Tarik, a young Syrian learning the rules of the street the hard way.

Hansen is right to point out that, for all Europe’s angst about refugees over the last decade or so, no country has taken in more people than Turkey, which has absorbed three million Syrians since the outbreak of its neighbour’s civil war. In Karagümrük, once a bastion of Turkish nationalism, street signs start to appear in Arabic script. Yet this was not just a story of tension and resentment. Hüseyin helped newcomers to fill out forms and understand bills. President Erdoğan, at least initially, spoke of welcoming Syrians as part of a wider Muslim family.

But there were ugly attitudes and incidents, and Hansen brilliantly captures the little ways in which local prejudices begin to manifest: the complaints that Syrians smell of cooking oil; that they walk down the street all wrong; that they are a threat to Turkish women. Here it feels the book really gets into the grit of Karagümrük and the nativist politics recognisable far outside it.

Sometimes the focus blurs: in documenting the hollowing out of Turkey’s independent institutions – and building on her previous reporting – Hansen takes us to a university faculty in Ankara, a prospective canal project in Istanbul, and shadows a dissident architect working in the wake of the country’s devastating 2023 earthquake. All are important stories, but they touch less on daily life in Karagümrük.

But perhaps this points to a disconcerting truth: that the breadth of Erdoğan’s assault is so bewildering – from the courts, to higher education, to the digital world – that it is impossible to grasp its extent in just one place. And that democracy can be picked apart and, like the characters in Karagümrük, most people just keep their heads down and carry on.

From Life Itself: Turkey and Istanbul in the Age of Erdoğan by Suzy Hansen is published by Profile (£12.99). To support the Guardian, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.



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