Business & Technology
Parcelhero says High Street closures beat 2030 forecast
Parcelhero has published a new report revisiting its earlier forecast for the future of the UK High Street. It says store closures have already exceeded the level it projected for 2030.
The delivery and retail research firm estimates that 122,682 physical stores have closed since 2016, compared with its earlier forecast that 100,000 would shut between 2016 and 2030.
The new report revisits warnings made in Parcelhero’s 2016 study, which argued that the rise of eCommerce would reshape town centres and wipe out large parts of traditional retail. That earlier work, discussed in Parliament, focused on the likely decline of department stores, fashion chains, bank branches and newsagents.
David Jinks, Head of Consumer Research at Parcelhero and lead author of both reports, said the latest findings suggest the direction of travel has not changed, even if some parts of the High Street have proved more resilient than expected.
“When we released our first study, 2030 seemed a long way off. With just four years remaining, now is the ideal time to see whether our town centres continue to wither on the vine or whether there are green shoots we didn’t foresee 10 years ago.
At first glance, I’m afraid our new report, ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back?’, is far from encouraging reading. That question mark in the title is there for a reason. The first report forecast 100,000 store closures by 2030. As our new report reveals, in some ways the situation is even worse than we feared. Since 2016, an estimated 122,682 physical stores have already closed.”
Big names gone
The report lists a long line of brands that have disappeared from town centres, entered administration or sharply reduced their store estates over the past decade. Among those named are Jaeger, Toys R’ Us, Maplin, Mothercare, Thomas Cook, Debenhams, Beales, Laura Ashley, Harveys Furniture, McColl’s, Paperchase, Homebase, Ted Baker, Oddbins and Lloyds Pharmacy.
It also points to more recent pressure on chains including Claire’s, The Original Factory Shop, Russell & Bromley and Quiz.
Department stores are presented as one of the clearest examples of structural decline. House of Fraser’s store count has fallen from 59 to 23 since Sports Direct bought the business after it entered administration, while Debenhams’ 165 department stores had all closed by mid-2021 following liquidation. Beales, which had 23 stores in 2019, no longer has any.
According to the report, more than 83% of UK department store space has disappeared since 2016.
Fashion retail has also suffered heavy losses. Arcadia Group alone closed more than 200 stores, while household names including LK Bennett, Karen Millen, Jack Wills, Cath Kidston, Oasis, Warehouse, TM Lewin, Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Burtons have all entered administration or closed large parts of their estates.
Branches and bookshops
The latest study also tracks the retreat of other traditional High Street staples. Around 6,660 bank branches closed between 2016 and 2025, adding to the long-term decline in branch banking as customers moved online.
Newsagents and stationery retailers have also shrunk. WHSmith sold its High Street stores to Modella Capital, where they were rebranded as TGJones, while Paperchase and McColl’s have vanished from many town centres.
Not every prediction from a decade ago has been borne out. Jinks said bookshops have held up better than expected, with 1,052 independent bookshops still trading despite pressure on physical retail.
“Our new report goes on to feature many other categories where our original predictions were all too true. However, our crystal ball was not infallible. In ‘The Death of the High Street’, we predicted that bookshops were nearing their final chapter. We said, ‘The traditional High Street book store industry is collapsing at 2.3% a year, with just 1,071 retail businesses remaining.’ While there has been a decline, the current number of independent bookshops alone still stands at 1,052. Bookshops have turned over a new leaf.”
Online shift
The report argues that the broad shift to online shopping remains a central force behind changes on the High Street, even though the pandemic-era surge did not continue at the same pace.
Online spending accounted for 14.2% of all retail spending in mid-2016, according to Parcelhero. It peaked at 35.6% in February 2021 during the pandemic before easing back to around 28% of the market. In February 2026, online sales represented 28.2% of total retail spend, the report says.
That leaves open the question of whether Parcelhero’s earlier prediction that online would account for 40% of retail spending by 2030 will be reached.
The report says the pandemic created a short-lived boom that also exposed weaknesses among online-first retailers. It cites setbacks at Ocado, Asos and Boohoo, and notes the disappearance of rapid grocery delivery firms Jiffy, Gorillas and Getir. Missguided also entered administration after expanding too far.
Signs of life
Even so, the report identifies pockets of growth in physical retail. Convenience stores were the fastest-growing category in 2024 as major supermarket groups opened more smaller outlets. Coffee shops and cake shops also recorded net openings.
Jinks said the overall closure figure does not amount to a net loss on the same scale, because retail churn means some openings replace closures. But he added that closures still outnumber openings in important sectors and continue to threaten weaker shopping areas.
“Don’t run away with the idea that eCommerce is on its way out and the High Street will return to its former glory, however. Our latest report reveals that online sales have fallen back since 2021, but they remain significantly higher than in 2016, at around 28% of the entire market. In February 2026, online held 28.2% of total retail spend, for example. The jury is still out on our predicted eCommerce share of 40% by 2030.
So have online’s growing pains been the High Street’s gain? Well, as our new report’s title, ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back?’, hints, there have been some encouraging signs. In 2024, the fastest-growing category was convenience stores, as large supermarket chains accelerated growth in this expanding market by opening increasing numbers of smaller stores. Likewise, coffee shops saw more than one net opening per week, and cake shops also grew in number. So at least part of our High Street looks set to enjoy a sweet future.
While we have lost 122,682 physical stores between 2017 and the end of 2025, that is not a net loss. That number is harder to determine, but it will be lower, as some churn is natural. Even so, as our report highlights, many more shops have closed than opened, especially in key sectors such as department stores. This still threatens the survival of some High Streets and shopping arcades. The High Street may not have reached a dead end by 2030 but, in this new age of retail, it will have arrived at its biggest crossroads.”
Grumpys Sweet Shop in Fettiplace Road, which operated as a cafe and collectibles shop until it became a sweet shop in 2023, has announced it will close by the end of August.
A statement from the team behind the shop said the ‘difficult decision’ was taken with a ‘heavy heart’.
The final day trading would be Friday, August 28.
READ MORE: New Oxford ‘traffic filter’ scheme launch date announced
The statement said: “This hasn’t been a decision we’ve taken lightly.
“Like so many families and small businesses, we’ve felt the impact of the rising cost of living, and the increasing costs of running a business have made things more challenging than ever.
“On top of that, our current lease has came to an end.
“Renewing it would mean committing to another seven years, and after a great deal of thought, we’ve decided that this is the right time for us to close this chapter.
“While we’re incredibly sad to say goodbye, we’d love to see as many of you as possible before we close.
READ MORE: Oxfordshire postcode wins big in Postcode Lottery draw
“From the bottom of our hearts, thank you for making Grumpy’s Sweet Shop so much more than just a business.
“You turned it into a place filled with smiles, laughter, and wonderful memories that we’ll treasure forever.”
The owners added that ‘everything you see in the shop’ is now for sale, and offers will be considered for all fittings and displays.
The dispute that halted the much-anticipated introduction of new trains to Milton Keynes looked to be coming to be coming to an end.
The Government has been pushing for ‘Driver-Controlled’ or ‘Driver-Only Operation’—a cost-saving method introduced widely on London commuter lines in the 1980s, a move widely condemned by trade unions.
The Department for Transport’s (DfT) plan for trains to be staffed by a driver and a customer service inspector seemed to solve the dispute.
But this did not meet the The National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT)’s demands.
The union has been opposing plans to use driver-only trains between Oxford and Milton Keynes Central.
Although the line between Bicester and Bletchley has technically been open since 2024, it has only been used by freight, charter, and test trains.
Chiltern Railways was chosen as the operator and has been advertising for customer service inspectors, instead of guards.
However, these inspectors would not be considered ‘safety-critical,’ meaning the driver would be responsible for opening and closing the doors.
Chiltern Railways stated it has made significant progress in preparing for the line to open to scheduled passenger trains, but no date has been announced.
READ MORE: Cruz Beckham pokes fun at brother Brooklyn amid bitter family fallout
The company said it is continuing to work closely with the The Department for Transport, trade unions, and industry partners.
The National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers general secretary Eddie Dempsey insisted on the necessity of a guaranteed safety-critical second person aboard trains, citing their essential role in handling a wide range of duties and responding appropriately to ‘dangerous and fast-moving’ situations.
He said: “We need a clear commitment from Chiltern that East West Rail services will not be Driver Only Operation and that a second safety-critical member of staff will be guaranteed.”
Chiltern Railways is set to be renationalised on September 20, when it will be taken over by DfT Operator in preparation for Great British Railways.
45 drivers have been recruited for the new service, but no guards.
The project delays have already taken a significant financial toll.
Six two-carriage trains have accumulated £2.6m in costs due to delays in their lease.
Currently idle in a Bletchley depot, these units are costing the Department for Transport money without generating any fare income.
The Government previously said trains from Oxford to Milton Keynes are being lined up to appear in the December rail timetable.
In a written statement, rail minister Lord Peter Hendy said: “Chiltern worked with Network Rail, the Department for Transport and other operators on the December 2026 timetable and services have been timetabled between Oxford, Winslow, Bletchley and Milton Keynes.”
SOFIAH NICHOLE SALIVIO
News Editor
More than 100 technology companies have signed up for Boycott Your Bed 2026, a charity sleepout expected to bring together more than 500 participants across four UK cities.
Participants from companies including Accenture, PwC, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Siemens and Barclays are due to spend a night outdoors as part of the annual fundraiser for Action for Children. The event will take place in London, Glasgow, Manchester and Leeds.
Now in its 29th year, Boycott Your Bed has become a longstanding fixture in parts of the UK technology sector. Organisers say it has raised GBP £14.6 million for Action for Children since launching in 1998.
The sleepout aims to raise both money and awareness for vulnerable children, young people and families across the UK. Action for Children operates 342 services in communities, schools and online, and says it helped more than half a million children, young people and families in the last year.
Recent government figures cited by organisers show that more than four million children in the UK are growing up in poverty. Against that backdrop, the event asks participants to spend one night outside as a reminder of the insecurity some families face.
Although the fundraiser is open to individuals and teams from any industry, it has attracted strong backing from the technology community for nearly three decades. This year’s participating businesses also include Capgemini, Red Hat, Burberry, Specsavers, Irwin Mitchell, Kier Group and Sparta Global.
Organisers present the event as both a fundraising effort and a meeting point for people across the sector. Its mix of senior leaders, partners, customers and technology professionals has helped give the sleepout a profile beyond that of a conventional charity initiative.
Sector gathering
The level of corporate involvement suggests companies still see value in cause-led events that also create space for professional networking. In a market where firms face pressure to show social impact while maintaining industry ties, Boycott Your Bed has carved out a role that does both.
That dual purpose appears to be part of the event’s staying power. With registrations still open for a limited period, organisers expect further sign-ups before the sleepout takes place.
For Action for Children, the event provides a significant fundraising channel linked to a business audience with long-standing ties to the charity. For participating companies, it offers a visible way to support a national children’s charity while bringing staff and contacts together in an informal setting.
The format is simple: individuals and teams commit to one night outdoors in organised sleepouts staged simultaneously across the four cities, with fundraising tied to participation.
Long record
Boycott Your Bed began as a campaign to raise awareness and funds and has grown into one of the larger recurring charity gatherings associated with the UK technology industry. Organisers say more than 100 companies have already registered for this year’s edition.
The range of names on the participant list points to support from consulting firms, financial services groups, industrial businesses and software companies. That gives the event a broader corporate base than a niche sector fundraiser, even though its roots remain closely tied to the technology industry.
Ken Deeks, vice president and founder of Boycott Your Bed, commented on the scale of support and the purpose behind the event. “Understanding the reality of these challenges has been both eye-opening and deeply moving. Boycott Your Bed raises awareness of issues that can often remain hidden from view. The response from the technology community continues to be incredible, with more than 100 companies already signed up and many more expected to join before October. We anticipate more than 500 sleepers on the night, creating a fantastic opportunity for people from across the sector to come together. Importantly, sleepers will play a direct role in supporting Action for Children’s work with vulnerable children, young people and families across the UK,” Deeks said.
-
Business & Technology3 weeks agoHSBC UK & Visa test AI shopping with live payments
-
Business & Technology4 weeks agoMouser warns against viral hacks to cool overheating phones
-
Business & Technology3 weeks agoValarian lands USD $50 million backing for sovereign AI
-
Business & Technology4 weeks agoKane tops England influencer rankings after Mexico win
-
Business & Technology4 weeks agoSNP & Palantir launch AI tools for SAP transformations
-
Oxford News4 weeks agoDWP now checking bank accounts for Universal Credit and Pension Credit
-
Oxford Events4 weeks agoHenley Festival 2026 highlights: Five nights of unforgettable performances and festival moments
-
Business & Technology4 weeks agoOde launches free AI voice service for poem recommendations