Business & Technology
Parcelhero says High Street closures beat 2030 forecast
Parcelhero has published a new report revisiting its earlier forecast for the future of the UK High Street. It says store closures have already exceeded the level it projected for 2030.
The delivery and retail research firm estimates that 122,682 physical stores have closed since 2016, compared with its earlier forecast that 100,000 would shut between 2016 and 2030.
The new report revisits warnings made in Parcelhero’s 2016 study, which argued that the rise of eCommerce would reshape town centres and wipe out large parts of traditional retail. That earlier work, discussed in Parliament, focused on the likely decline of department stores, fashion chains, bank branches and newsagents.
David Jinks, Head of Consumer Research at Parcelhero and lead author of both reports, said the latest findings suggest the direction of travel has not changed, even if some parts of the High Street have proved more resilient than expected.
“When we released our first study, 2030 seemed a long way off. With just four years remaining, now is the ideal time to see whether our town centres continue to wither on the vine or whether there are green shoots we didn’t foresee 10 years ago.
At first glance, I’m afraid our new report, ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back?’, is far from encouraging reading. That question mark in the title is there for a reason. The first report forecast 100,000 store closures by 2030. As our new report reveals, in some ways the situation is even worse than we feared. Since 2016, an estimated 122,682 physical stores have already closed.”
Big names gone
The report lists a long line of brands that have disappeared from town centres, entered administration or sharply reduced their store estates over the past decade. Among those named are Jaeger, Toys R’ Us, Maplin, Mothercare, Thomas Cook, Debenhams, Beales, Laura Ashley, Harveys Furniture, McColl’s, Paperchase, Homebase, Ted Baker, Oddbins and Lloyds Pharmacy.
It also points to more recent pressure on chains including Claire’s, The Original Factory Shop, Russell & Bromley and Quiz.
Department stores are presented as one of the clearest examples of structural decline. House of Fraser’s store count has fallen from 59 to 23 since Sports Direct bought the business after it entered administration, while Debenhams’ 165 department stores had all closed by mid-2021 following liquidation. Beales, which had 23 stores in 2019, no longer has any.
According to the report, more than 83% of UK department store space has disappeared since 2016.
Fashion retail has also suffered heavy losses. Arcadia Group alone closed more than 200 stores, while household names including LK Bennett, Karen Millen, Jack Wills, Cath Kidston, Oasis, Warehouse, TM Lewin, Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Burtons have all entered administration or closed large parts of their estates.
Branches and bookshops
The latest study also tracks the retreat of other traditional High Street staples. Around 6,660 bank branches closed between 2016 and 2025, adding to the long-term decline in branch banking as customers moved online.
Newsagents and stationery retailers have also shrunk. WHSmith sold its High Street stores to Modella Capital, where they were rebranded as TGJones, while Paperchase and McColl’s have vanished from many town centres.
Not every prediction from a decade ago has been borne out. Jinks said bookshops have held up better than expected, with 1,052 independent bookshops still trading despite pressure on physical retail.
“Our new report goes on to feature many other categories where our original predictions were all too true. However, our crystal ball was not infallible. In ‘The Death of the High Street’, we predicted that bookshops were nearing their final chapter. We said, ‘The traditional High Street book store industry is collapsing at 2.3% a year, with just 1,071 retail businesses remaining.’ While there has been a decline, the current number of independent bookshops alone still stands at 1,052. Bookshops have turned over a new leaf.”
Online shift
The report argues that the broad shift to online shopping remains a central force behind changes on the High Street, even though the pandemic-era surge did not continue at the same pace.
Online spending accounted for 14.2% of all retail spending in mid-2016, according to Parcelhero. It peaked at 35.6% in February 2021 during the pandemic before easing back to around 28% of the market. In February 2026, online sales represented 28.2% of total retail spend, the report says.
That leaves open the question of whether Parcelhero’s earlier prediction that online would account for 40% of retail spending by 2030 will be reached.
The report says the pandemic created a short-lived boom that also exposed weaknesses among online-first retailers. It cites setbacks at Ocado, Asos and Boohoo, and notes the disappearance of rapid grocery delivery firms Jiffy, Gorillas and Getir. Missguided also entered administration after expanding too far.
Signs of life
Even so, the report identifies pockets of growth in physical retail. Convenience stores were the fastest-growing category in 2024 as major supermarket groups opened more smaller outlets. Coffee shops and cake shops also recorded net openings.
Jinks said the overall closure figure does not amount to a net loss on the same scale, because retail churn means some openings replace closures. But he added that closures still outnumber openings in important sectors and continue to threaten weaker shopping areas.
“Don’t run away with the idea that eCommerce is on its way out and the High Street will return to its former glory, however. Our latest report reveals that online sales have fallen back since 2021, but they remain significantly higher than in 2016, at around 28% of the entire market. In February 2026, online held 28.2% of total retail spend, for example. The jury is still out on our predicted eCommerce share of 40% by 2030.
So have online’s growing pains been the High Street’s gain? Well, as our new report’s title, ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back?’, hints, there have been some encouraging signs. In 2024, the fastest-growing category was convenience stores, as large supermarket chains accelerated growth in this expanding market by opening increasing numbers of smaller stores. Likewise, coffee shops saw more than one net opening per week, and cake shops also grew in number. So at least part of our High Street looks set to enjoy a sweet future.
While we have lost 122,682 physical stores between 2017 and the end of 2025, that is not a net loss. That number is harder to determine, but it will be lower, as some churn is natural. Even so, as our report highlights, many more shops have closed than opened, especially in key sectors such as department stores. This still threatens the survival of some High Streets and shopping arcades. The High Street may not have reached a dead end by 2030 but, in this new age of retail, it will have arrived at its biggest crossroads.”
Blossom Pottery Cafe opened on Friday, August 14 at 18 South Bar, bringing a new artistic opportunity to coffee, tea and cake lovers in the town.
Opening the cafe was a long-standing dream of owner Wendy, who began pottery as a personal hobby and gradually developed the idea of creating a space where people of all ages can enjoy the peaceful pass time.
With every table full on opening weekend and dozens of beautiful pieces newly painted by guests, the owner said her ‘heart is so full’ to see the dream realised.
“So grateful to see so many of you coming to support us on our opening day,” she shared. “Thank you so much.”
Wendy earlier said: “We’re incredibly excited to be opening Blossom Pottery Studio & Café and bringing something new to Banbury.
“We hope it becomes a place where people can take a break from their busy lives, enjoy being creative, and make lasting memories with family and friends.
“The support we’ve received from the local community has been amazing, and we can’t wait to welcome everyone through our doors.”
As part of the grand opening, all customers who visited during the opening weekend or made a pottery painting booking within the next three months received a free cupcake from the cafe.
Blossom Pottery Cafe hosts family-friendly pottery painting sessions from 10am each day, with normal cafe opening hours 8am to 5pm.
Atos highlighted the views of three apprentices entering the technology industry, focusing on apprenticeships as a route into tech as artificial intelligence reshapes workplace skills.
All three work as First Line Service Desk Apprentices and described a jobs market in which technical knowledge alone is not enough. Alongside coding and troubleshooting, they said communication, customer service, problem-solving and adaptability have become central to early careers in IT.
Kyle Brady said he moved into an apprenticeship after studying physics, maths and computer science at A level, then spending time in temporary work, including as a forklift driver, while building his technical skills independently. The apprenticeship, he said, offered a way to gain workplace experience while continuing to learn.
His account points to a common hurdle for new entrants: gaining practical experience before securing a first role. Brady said that challenge shaped his view of what employers value in technology jobs.
“After completing my A levels in physics, maths and computer science, I knew I wanted a career in technology. I’ve always enjoyed solving problems and understanding how things work, but I found it difficult to get my foot in the door. I spent some time in temporary jobs, including as a forklift driver, while building my technical skills in my own time. When the opportunity to start an apprenticeship came along, it felt like the perfect way to gain real workplace experience while continuing to learn.
“One of the biggest things my apprenticeship has taught me is that a career in tech is about much more than technical knowledge. Working on the helpdesk has shown me how important communication, customer service and problem-solving are. Being the first point of contact for users has completely changed how I see the industry and helped me develop skills I never realised I’d need. The experience has also shown me how quickly technology is evolving, especially with AI becoming part of more workplaces. That means the ability to keep learning and adapting is becoming just as important as technical skills. My apprenticeship has helped me build that mindset while giving me hands-on experience with the realities of working in IT.
“It’s also opened up opportunities I wouldn’t have had otherwise. Learning about career paths in cybersecurity and data engineering has shown me the range of opportunities available and given me confidence about where my career could go next. I’d encourage anyone thinking about a career in technology to keep an open mind and not feel like university is the only route. Apprenticeships give you the chance to earn while you learn, develop practical skills from day one and build the confidence to adapt as technology continues to change. In an industry being transformed by AI, that real-world experience is invaluable,” Brady said.
Ryan Cresswell said he studied IT at college and games design at university before working in sales to strengthen his people skills. He later returned to technology, but said employers often wanted practical IT experience as well as qualifications.
His experience reflects a wider issue for people seeking entry-level technology roles. Employers often ask for evidence of workplace readiness even for junior positions, making apprenticeships one way to bridge the gap between education and employment.
“After studying IT at college and games design at university, I began working in sales to hone my people skills before returning to technology. One of the biggest challenges I faced while applying for jobs in tech was that employers liked my qualifications but wanted candidates with hands-on IT experience. That made it difficult to get my foot in the door.
“My apprenticeship has given me the opportunity to earn, learn and gain practical experience at the same time. It’s allowed me to develop my technical troubleshooting skills, but I’ve also learned a lot about communication, problem-solving and handling different types of people. My advice to anyone considering a career in tech is to explore the different paths available. In the past it felt like university was the only choice, but that’s no longer the case. Also, speak to people already working in the industry and stay curious. Apprenticeships are a great way to build skills, confidence and hands-on experience, whether working individually or in a team, while discovering what’s right for you. The most important thing is to keep learning and not be afraid to take a different path if the first one doesn’t work out,” Cresswell said.
Skills shift
Zainab Hussain said she chose an apprenticeship because it offered immediate workplace experience and a path into more senior roles without student debt. She said the role had helped her develop both technical and interpersonal skills, including troubleshooting problems and explaining complex concepts clearly.
Her comments underscore how apprenticeships are being framed by employers and trainees as an alternative to university for some digital roles. In this case, the appeal lies in earning while learning, building professional networks and gaining direct exposure to the daily demands of IT support.
“I’m naturally drawn to tech and have always been IT literate, so I knew it was the right path for me. It’s an industry that’s constantly evolving, and I wanted to be part of that. I chose an apprenticeship because it felt like the best way to gain real experience from day one, and it sets you up to move into higher roles faster than if you go to university. I also wanted to build a career in the industry without taking on student debt.
“My time at Atos so far has helped me develop both my soft and technical skills, such as how to troubleshoot problems and communicate complex concepts clearly. I’ve also had the chance to earn, learn and build my experience, all of which are helping prepare me for the next stage of my career. The apprenticeship path has given me valuable opportunities to network with co-workers from different career backgrounds and skill sets, which you wouldn’t get at uni. The workplace experience has been incredibly valuable, so if you’re interested in tech, I’d encourage you to go for an apprenticeship, explore every opportunity available and keep an open mind,” Hussain said.
Taken together, the three accounts point to a shift in the skills mix associated with junior technology roles. As AI tools become more common in workplaces, the apprentices said the ability to keep learning, work with users and adapt to changing systems is becoming as important as formal technical training.
All three also described apprenticeships as a practical answer to the experience barrier that can prevent candidates entering the sector. They framed the route as a way to gain income, training and exposure to real workplace problems at the same time, while opening paths into areas such as cybersecurity, data engineering and wider IT support.
Liquidators have been instructed to wind down Go Fly Oxford, which provided lessons for commercial and private pilots licences.
Colin Wilson and Emma Mifsud, of Opus Restructuring & Insolvency, have been appointed as joint liquidators for Go Fly Oxford Ltd back in May 2025.
But new records filed by the liquidators have revealed an HMRC secondary preferential claim of £118,132.
Ten unsecured claims have been received by the liquidators totalling £60,314.
Further unsecured creditor claims estimated in the statement of affairs total £88,955, the published documents say.
Over the past year, liquidators say they investigated whether any recoveries could be made from directors or other parties, but concluded there were no further viable assets or claims.
Aircraft shown in the 2024 accounts at a book value of £238,181 had been sold before liquidation. The liquidators found the sales appeared to be at fair value and saw no basis for a claim over the transactions.
The aircraft sales happened about seven months before liquidation, outside the relevant period for a preference claim.
The aircraft were reportedly transferred to creditors and leased back so the company could continue trading.
A purchaser of a PA34-200 aircraft was said to owe £6,000. The liquidators received £4,980; the remaining £1,020 was treated as settled because the purchaser had paid a company liability instead.
Two employees were made redundant on 31 March 2025 and were given information to submit claims to the Redundancy Payments Service.
READ MORE: MOT centre and car shop collapses into administration
The flying school was based at Oxford Airport when it collapsed.
Its website, which has since been shut down, described the business: “At Go Fly Oxford we pride ourselves on offering a personal and tailored approach to pilot training.
“We know that people learn at different paces and in different ways, this makes catering for individual needs our main target.”
Oxford Airport’s main trade is pilot training. Flight schools at Oxford train pilots who go on to fly for more than 100 airlines in the UK and globally, including for British Airways.
Historically, the airport has been Europe’s foremost centre for professional pilot training with well over 40,000 students having started their careers there.
At one point, the airport’s runway was the busiest in the world with more than 235,000 movements a year (a take-off or landing) and up to 1,100 flights in a single day, its website says.
The business’ report says: “Over the course of 2025, the company will be complementing its Diamond DA40 fleet with a new fleet of Elixir aircraft, a safer and more efficient type of aircraft, which will provide a much reduced cost per flight hour.
“This, along with growth in enrolments and full utilisation of the European base will ensure the profitability of the business in the coming years.”
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