Parcelhero has published a new report revisiting its earlier forecast for the future of the UK High Street. It says store closures have already exceeded the level it projected for 2030.

The delivery and retail research firm estimates that 122,682 physical stores have closed since 2016, compared with its earlier forecast that 100,000 would shut between 2016 and 2030.

The new report revisits warnings made in Parcelhero’s 2016 study, which argued that the rise of eCommerce would reshape town centres and wipe out large parts of traditional retail. That earlier work, discussed in Parliament, focused on the likely decline of department stores, fashion chains, bank branches and newsagents.

David Jinks, Head of Consumer Research at Parcelhero and lead author of both reports, said the latest findings suggest the direction of travel has not changed, even if some parts of the High Street have proved more resilient than expected.

“When we released our first study, 2030 seemed a long way off. With just four years remaining, now is the ideal time to see whether our town centres continue to wither on the vine or whether there are green shoots we didn’t foresee 10 years ago.

At first glance, I’m afraid our new report, ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back?’, is far from encouraging reading. That question mark in the title is there for a reason. The first report forecast 100,000 store closures by 2030. As our new report reveals, in some ways the situation is even worse than we feared. Since 2016, an estimated 122,682 physical stores have already closed.”

Big names gone

The report lists a long line of brands that have disappeared from town centres, entered administration or sharply reduced their store estates over the past decade. Among those named are Jaeger, Toys R’ Us, Maplin, Mothercare, Thomas Cook, Debenhams, Beales, Laura Ashley, Harveys Furniture, McColl’s, Paperchase, Homebase, Ted Baker, Oddbins and Lloyds Pharmacy.

It also points to more recent pressure on chains including Claire’s, The Original Factory Shop, Russell & Bromley and Quiz.

Department stores are presented as one of the clearest examples of structural decline. House of Fraser’s store count has fallen from 59 to 23 since Sports Direct bought the business after it entered administration, while Debenhams’ 165 department stores had all closed by mid-2021 following liquidation. Beales, which had 23 stores in 2019, no longer has any.

According to the report, more than 83% of UK department store space has disappeared since 2016.

Fashion retail has also suffered heavy losses. Arcadia Group alone closed more than 200 stores, while household names including LK Bennett, Karen Millen, Jack Wills, Cath Kidston, Oasis, Warehouse, TM Lewin, Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Burtons have all entered administration or closed large parts of their estates.

Branches and bookshops

The latest study also tracks the retreat of other traditional High Street staples. Around 6,660 bank branches closed between 2016 and 2025, adding to the long-term decline in branch banking as customers moved online.

Newsagents and stationery retailers have also shrunk. WHSmith sold its High Street stores to Modella Capital, where they were rebranded as TGJones, while Paperchase and McColl’s have vanished from many town centres.

Not every prediction from a decade ago has been borne out. Jinks said bookshops have held up better than expected, with 1,052 independent bookshops still trading despite pressure on physical retail.

“Our new report goes on to feature many other categories where our original predictions were all too true. However, our crystal ball was not infallible. In ‘The Death of the High Street’, we predicted that bookshops were nearing their final chapter. We said, ‘The traditional High Street book store industry is collapsing at 2.3% a year, with just 1,071 retail businesses remaining.’ While there has been a decline, the current number of independent bookshops alone still stands at 1,052. Bookshops have turned over a new leaf.”

Online shift

The report argues that the broad shift to online shopping remains a central force behind changes on the High Street, even though the pandemic-era surge did not continue at the same pace.

Online spending accounted for 14.2% of all retail spending in mid-2016, according to Parcelhero. It peaked at 35.6% in February 2021 during the pandemic before easing back to around 28% of the market. In February 2026, online sales represented 28.2% of total retail spend, the report says.

That leaves open the question of whether Parcelhero’s earlier prediction that online would account for 40% of retail spending by 2030 will be reached.

The report says the pandemic created a short-lived boom that also exposed weaknesses among online-first retailers. It cites setbacks at Ocado, Asos and Boohoo, and notes the disappearance of rapid grocery delivery firms Jiffy, Gorillas and Getir. Missguided also entered administration after expanding too far.

Signs of life

Even so, the report identifies pockets of growth in physical retail. Convenience stores were the fastest-growing category in 2024 as major supermarket groups opened more smaller outlets. Coffee shops and cake shops also recorded net openings.

Jinks said the overall closure figure does not amount to a net loss on the same scale, because retail churn means some openings replace closures. But he added that closures still outnumber openings in important sectors and continue to threaten weaker shopping areas.

“Don’t run away with the idea that eCommerce is on its way out and the High Street will return to its former glory, however. Our latest report reveals that online sales have fallen back since 2021, but they remain significantly higher than in 2016, at around 28% of the entire market. In February 2026, online held 28.2% of total retail spend, for example. The jury is still out on our predicted eCommerce share of 40% by 2030.

So have online’s growing pains been the High Street’s gain? Well, as our new report’s title, ‘2030: The High Street Fights Back?’, hints, there have been some encouraging signs. In 2024, the fastest-growing category was convenience stores, as large supermarket chains accelerated growth in this expanding market by opening increasing numbers of smaller stores. Likewise, coffee shops saw more than one net opening per week, and cake shops also grew in number. So at least part of our High Street looks set to enjoy a sweet future.

While we have lost 122,682 physical stores between 2017 and the end of 2025, that is not a net loss. That number is harder to determine, but it will be lower, as some churn is natural. Even so, as our report highlights, many more shops have closed than opened, especially in key sectors such as department stores. This still threatens the survival of some High Streets and shopping arcades. The High Street may not have reached a dead end by 2030 but, in this new age of retail, it will have arrived at its biggest crossroads.”

Locai Labs has signed a contract with First Light Fusion to supply and deploy a domain-specific large language model for use as an AI coding assistant by First Light Fusion’s science and engineering teams.

The agreement follows a memorandum of understanding signed by the two UK companies earlier this year.

The model was trained on First Light Fusion’s scientific and engineering workflows using Locai Labs’ proprietary Forget-Me-Not framework. It has been installed on First Light Fusion’s secure computing infrastructure in Oxford, keeping proprietary data and intellectual property within the company’s existing systems.

First Light Fusion works on inertial fusion energy and has also developed machine learning simulation tools for its research. The coding assistant is intended to support work across its science and engineering operations, where specialist software and technical workflows are part of day-to-day development.

The contract also provides for ongoing updates. Under the project plan, the system will undergo two full retraining cycles each year to reflect changes in First Light Fusion’s research activity.

Secure environment

A central feature of the deployment is that the model runs inside First Light Fusion’s own environment rather than through an external service. It has been deployed on secure, air-gapped computing infrastructure designed to isolate sensitive information from outside networks.

That arrangement reflects the sensitivity of data involved in fusion research, where simulation work, experimental results and engineering designs can form part of a company’s intellectual property. By keeping the model within its own systems, First Light Fusion aims to use AI tools without moving research data outside its direct control.

Locai Labs describes itself as a UK artificial intelligence company focused on foundational models. Its Forget-Me-Not method is used to adapt models for specific tasks and organisations, in this case to meet the specialist requirements of fusion energy research rather than general software development.

The contract gives Locai Labs a role in one of the UK’s more technically demanding industrial research fields. Fusion companies increasingly rely on simulation, modelling and data analysis to shorten development timelines and improve experimental design, creating a potential market for tailored AI systems that can operate in secure research settings.

First Light Fusion was founded as a spin-out from the University of Oxford and has focused on technologies linked to inertial fusion energy, defence applications and materials science research. Its infrastructure includes what it describes as Europe’s largest pulsed power facility and the UK’s largest two-stage gas gun.

It has also outlined a strategy called FLARE, which it presents as a route towards commercial inertial fusion energy. The latest agreement suggests the company is also investing in software and internal research tools as it develops that broader technical programme.

Industry context

For Locai Labs, the contract provides a reference point for applying domain-specific language models to industrial and scientific work. Rather than offering a general chatbot, it has supplied a model trained on a single customer’s internal workflows and hosted within that customer’s secure estate.

Mark Thomas, Chief Executive Officer of First Light Fusion, said: “We’ve been impressed by the quality and speed of the work delivered by Locai Labs. From initial planning to the final deployment on our air-gapped system, their team demonstrated a deep understanding of our needs and a commitment to excellence which aligns with our own mission. This AI coding assistant is already proving to be a valuable asset.”

James Drayson, Chief Executive Officer of Locai Labs, said: “This collaboration is a powerful example of how UK-developed foundational AI can be applied to accelerate UK scientific research and industrialisation. It’s a privilege to support such an innovative and mission-driven company.”

G.M. Jones & Son Ltd, which was founded in 1989, is an independent distributor that primarily serves the fast-food industry in the West Midlands, Staffordshire, and Shropshire.

The company is “one of a handful” that sells Pukka Pies products, in fresh, frozen, and unbaked forms.

G.M. Jones & Son Ltd offers “competitive pricing with an outstanding service”, according to its website.

G.M. Jones & Son Ltd to close after entering liquidation

After 27 years in business, G.M. Jones & Son Ltd is set to close after voluntarily entering liquidation.

The decision to enter liquidation comes despite the Staffordshire-based company reporting year-on-year sales growth on its website.

Timothy Frank Corfield of Griffin & King was appointed liquidator on Monday (April 20), according to The Gazette.

“No impact” on Pukka Pies products

Following news of G.M. Jones & Son Ltd falling into liquidation, Pukka Pies has assured customers there will be “no impact” on its products.

A Pukka Pies spokesperson, via The Sun, said: “G.M. Jones [and Sons] are one of many suppliers of Pukka Pies.

“We want to reassure customers that there is no impact on the availability of Pukka products.”

“As one of our valued wholesale partners for many years, it’s sad to see them – particularly a fellow family-run company – face challenges in today’s competitive market.

“We’ve worked closely with customers to help them transition smoothly to alternative suppliers so people across the UK can continue to enjoy Pukka products as usual.”

Pukka Pies has reassured customers that “there is no impact on the availability of Pukka products”. (Image: Pukka Pies)

Other major UK companies that have closed or entered administration in 2026

It has been a rough start to 2026 for the UK high street, with a wide range of businesses entering administration or closing down.

Major high street retailers have been forced to close stores, including:

Several other retailers have fallen into administration, including:

Major fashion retailer LK Bennett also entered administration back in January and is now set to close all its remaining stores over the coming days.

Meanwhile, four UK travel companies have closed in 2026:

EcoJet Airlines, billed as “the world’s first Electric Airline”, also entered liquidation after just three years, resulting in the cancellation of all planned flights.

What has a nose, wings and runs off of hydrogen? Ecojet 😎 pic.twitter.com/y8QGiBdFe2

— ecotricity (@ecotricity) July 17, 2023

UK delivery company Yodel is set to be phased out over the coming months after being acquired by InPost.

It’s also been reported that Morrisons is looking to sell some of its in-store pharmacies as it continues to cut costs.

It’s not been all bad news for the UK high street, with several major brands announcing new store openings for 2026, including Aldi, M&S, and Superdrug.

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