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Ebola spread in central Africa could match 2014 record outbreak, US health officials say | Africa

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Central Africa’s Ebola outbreak could spread to be similar in scale to the worst outbreak in history, west Africa’s 2014-2016 outbreak that killed more than 11,000 people, according to a new analysis by US health officials.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday published a range of scenarios generated by computer models, from 10,000 cases to more than 20,000. In the west Africa outbreak, more than 28,000 cases were reported.

The analysis from the CDC said cases could grow to 20,000 or more, depending on how quickly infected people are isolated to slow the spread.

Incident manager for the CDC’s Ebola response, Dr Satish Pillai, said without strong public health interventions, “the modelling work suggests an outbreak of that scale is possible”.

Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center in the United States, said the modelling “affirms what we have worried about since the beginning: this outbreak is following dangerous trajectory” if more is not done to stop its spread.

But she cautioned it can be extremely difficult to predict how outbreaks will progress. “I wouldn’t read too much into the specific numbers. It’s really hard to make an accurate projection when you have limited data,” she said.

The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday there have been about 400 confirmed cases, including 63 deaths. Experts say there are probably other cases that haven’t been diagnosed or reported.

The viruses that cause Ebola are spread through contact with body fluid such as vomit, blood and semen. There are no specific treatments or vaccines for the Bundibugyo virus at the heart of the current outbreak. The disease is often fatal.

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency in May. Some experts believe infections may have been occurring in February, but health officials initially tested for a different kind of Ebola virus.

The outbreak response has been complicated by an armed conflict between Congo’s government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, as well as attacks by the Islamic State-affiliated group the Allied Democratic Force. The violence has caused massive displacement of people living in the conflict areas, officials say.

CDC’s modelling report attempts to project how things might play out, based on different factors – including how many infections and deaths have already happened, and how quickly responders can identify and isolate infected people before they can spread the infection to others.

Pillai said the actual isolation rate is unknown but is considered to be “on the lower end of the scenarios” that CDC modelled.

Higher isolation rates, of 50% or 70%, could result in the number of cases being more like 10,000, CDC officials said. But if the actual number of deaths were greater in late May than now recognised, that could make the outcomes worse, CDC officials said.

Some CDC modelling during the large Ebola outbreak in West Africa proved to be way off. The CDC issued modelled numbers in 2014, when the epidemic was spiralling out of control and international health officials were quickly trying to build a response.

It estimated that in a worse-case scenario where nothing was done, as many as 1.4 million people might become infected. That turned out to be more than 50 times higher than what happened.



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Voters in Scotland head to the polls for Westminster by-elections

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Residents in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry are choosing new members of parliament.



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As Spielberg confirms whether ET was ‘slimy or dry’, we enter a new age of the celebrity interview | Film

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For the most part, Steven Spielberg has avoided most of the indignities of the modern day press tour. He hasn’t had to subject himself to any spicy chicken wings, or summon any witticisms when presented with a cloche-covered sausage roll. Unlike many other celebrities, he hasn’t chosen to promote Disclosure Day by answering softball questions while simultaneously fashioning a Lionel Richie-style clay approximation of himself for YouTube. For this he should be applauded.

Instead, Spielberg has spent this promotional cycle on something more suited to his stature. A maestro tour, if you will, on which he gets to position Disclosure Day against a body of work that is second to none. Publications have run long oral histories about his entire career. He was a guest during the prestigious final week of Stephen Colbert’s talkshow. He was interviewed by the New York Times about the exact texture of ET’s skin.

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That last one really did happen. A clip of the interview has gone mildly viral, featuring interviewer Rachel Abrams straight-out asking Spielberg “Was ET slimy or dry?” before suggesting that this is a decades-old conundrum that had long foxed everyone she knows. To his credit, Spielberg answered the question with tremendous gusto, if a little bewilderment. “ET was a little moist but never slimy,” he replied, after shaking his head. He then explained that, while “ET was only dry when he got sick”, it would be wrong to call him slimy. Xenomorphs are slimy, he pointed out. “ET never had tendrils of drool.”

Full disclosure day … Steven Spielberg. Photograph: Steven/AFF-USA/Shutterstock

Now, why Abrams asked this question is another matter. The good faith interpretation is that Spielberg has spent the last half-century in the public eye, and been interviewed so many times that he has developed a tendency to become something of an anecdote jukebox, reeling out the hits unprompted. This is something that afflicts only the truly famous but it can be debilitating. There are, after all, only so many times that a person can hear Ringo Starr’sI thought it was you three” story.

Viewed from this perspective, there is real value in extracting genuinely new information from A-list celebrities. The fact that ET is now canonically moist maybe adds something to the cultural conversation that wasn’t there before? If so, the question deserves to be commended. However, if Abrams just asked a deliberately dumb question to the director of Schindler’s List because she knew it would get clicks, then that is another matter entirely.

We must also question why the subject arose in the first place. Abrams’s justification that it was in the public interest, since it had long been a discussion within her social group, rings a little false, because presumably everyone in her social group has eyes and can see perfectly well for themselves that ET isn’t slimy. It’s right there! All through the film! We know what texture ET’s skin is because ET is a visible character throughout the entire movie. As everybody knows, ET’s skin is clearly pleather or pleather-adjacent, like the skin of a Mediterranean grandmother. There is certainly no slime there. If there was, then the film would have included a scene of Drew Barrymore skidding about in ET’s slug trail, or the climatic hug scene between ET and Elliott would have ended with Elliott looking down at his slime-covered clothes and tutting, “These were new on today.”

Visible moisture … Drew Barrymore and ET. Photograph: RONALD GRANT

But none of that happened so we can reasonably ascertain that ET isn’t slimy and this was a stupid question to ask. Still, the new media landscape loves nothing more than a replicable format, so perhaps this is something we’ll see more of in the future. For all we know, the New York Times is working on a series called Famous Auteurs Answer Self-Evident Questions as we speak, and this time next week they’ll drag Martin Scorsese in to ask if Jake LaMotta had 12 ears, or Paul Thomas Anderson to ask if Daniel Day-Lewis is secretly a mouse. For the avoidance of doubt, I hope this happens.



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Polls set to open in Makerfield by-election

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There are 14 candidates vying to be the Greater Manchester constituency’s new MP.



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