June heatwave would be ‘virtually impossible’ in 1976

The recent heatwave that has shattered records has intensified warnings about the pace and impact of climate change across Europe.

A rapid analysis conducted in response to the extreme hot and humid conditions affecting large parts of northern, western and central Europe has confirmed the event as the most severe heatwave ever recorded in the region.

June 2024 saw temperatures in the UK exceed records not seen since the summer of 1976, while France logged its hottest day on record and several other countries endured similar extremes, causing widespread disruption and placing pressure on public health systems.

A period of unusually hot summer weather occurred in the British Isles during the summer of 1976 (Image: PA Wire)

June heatwave would be ‘virtually impossible’ in 1976

Dr Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather and wildfire researcher at Imperial College London, said: “The science of how climate change is worsening heatwaves is settled.

“Continued fossil fuel emissions are directly responsible for the disruption people are experiencing this week in their homes, schools and workplaces.”

The analysis by the World Weather Attribution group found that both daytime highs and overnight temperatures during the heatwave would have been virtually impossible at this time of year under the climate of 50 years ago.

A similar event occurring under those conditions would have been an estimated 3.5C cooler.

The researchers also found that the intense overnight heat, which has contributed to sleepless nights for many, is now about 100 times more likely than it was just 23 years ago during the deadly 2003 European heatwave.

Daytime temperature peaks are now around 10 times more likely.

Humidity has also emerged as a growing threat.

The summer of 1976 wasn’t just hot — it was relentless.

People remember glorious beach weather and endless sunshine… but there was another side to it.

Reservoirs ran dry.
Grass turned to dust.
Livestock were fed winter straw.
Standpipes appeared in streets as families… pic.twitter.com/0Bi3BkUHgv

— Benonwine (@benonwine) June 25, 2026

Nearly half (45%) of the 854 cities studied across 30 European countries have either broken or are expected to break their “wet bulb globe temperature” record – a measure of heat stress that accounts for the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating.

More than half the cities analysed in the UK and Ireland broke heat stress records during the heatwave.

This surge in temperatures has been fuelled by a “heat dome” – a blocked high-pressure system that traps hot air over Europe and draws up warm air from the Sahara.

A new record high temperature was set for June for the second day in a row on Thursday (June 25).

The Met Office said temperatures had reached 36.4C at Yeovilton, Somerset, provisionally making it the UK’s hottest June day on record.

The new high surpasses both the previous record set on Wednesday (June 24), when temperatures reached 36.1C in Gosport, Hampshire, and the long-standing record for June heat, which dates back to 1976.

Speed of climate change is ‘startling’

Researchers compared observed and forecast temperature data to identify the hottest three-day period of the heatwave and contrast it with similar events in a cooler climate.

Their findings point clearly to the role of climate change in making this heatwave possible.

Dr Keeping said: “The speed of change is startling.

“Every few years we are seeing heat records shattered in Europe.

“This year it has been in consecutive months.

“In the UK, we are used to ‘snow days’ shutting down schools, but this generation is now growing up with ‘heat days’ as well.”

Professor Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said: “Scientists like me are beginning to sound like a broken record.

“We put out similar quotes year after year, reacting to heat extremes that climb ever higher.

“Yes, this is climate change, yes it’s us, no it’s not El Niño, yes we have the solutions, no we’re not implementing them fast enough.

“It’s really now a question of what kind of future we want for ourselves, and whether we’re willing to do what it takes to secure it.”

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said: “Extreme heat is shattering records across Europe, and the science is very clear about why: climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas.

“But the solutions are equally clear: a faster shift to clean energy – which is now much cheaper than fossil fuels – as well as protecting forests and building climate resilience.

“We must step up the pace, together.”

How hot do you think it will get this year in the UK? Let us know in the comments.