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IMF hails UK’s budget deficit improvement and warns global debt heading towards post-WW2 high – business live | Business
IMF hails UK’s budget deficit improvement
Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund has applauded the UK’s progress in reducing its budget deficit last year.
A day after slashing the UK’s growth forecasts, the IMF cited Britain as an example of an major economy which managed to trim its borrowings, after the UK’s deficit fell from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025.
In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, just released at its spring meeting in Washington, the IMF says:
In 2025, the headline deficit for advanced economies excluding the United States held broadly steady at 2.4% of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio for these economies fell only marginally to 95.3%, effectively unchanged from its 2019 level prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The United Kingdom recorded a notable improvement, reducing its deficit to 5.4% of GDP, with the change driven by tax increases, tax threshold freezes, and the expiration of temporary measures for energy support.
Canada and Japan also posted gains, reflecting spending restraint. These gains were partly offset by the use of some fiscal space by countries with historically strong fiscal positions, such as Korea and The Netherlands.
The IMF is forecasting that the UK’s annual budget deficit will drop to 3.9% of GDP this year, and continue falling until 2031 when it will be 1.6% of GDP, the second-lowest in the G7 after Canada.
In contrast, the US will need revenue and expenditure measures over the medium term to control its deficit, given “the persistence of primary spending and the scale of projected deficits”, the IMF says.

The Fund also warns Rachel Reeves not to stray from her fiscal rules, saying:
In the United Kingdom, adhering to established spending envelopes while strengthening the efficiency of value-added and property taxes is key to rebuilding buffers.
Key events
Finance ministers call for swift end to Iran war
A group of 11 finance ministers, including UK chancellor Rachel Reeves, are calling for a swift and lasting negotiated resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.
In a joint statement, finance ministers from the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, Spain, Norway, Ireland, Poland and New Zealand warn that the Iran war will continue to weigh on global growth, inflation and financial markets even once it is durably resolved.
The group of finance chiefs are calling on all parties to implement the ceasefire in full, saying:
The past weeks have brought unacceptable loss of life and significant disruption to the global economy and financial markets, and the ceasefire will be crucial to protecting civilian populations and the security of the region.
They also call for a swift and lasting negotiated resolution to the conflict, and a return to free and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The group also call for an end to protectionist actions in hydrocarbon and other supply chains, adding “We commit to promoting cooperation and integration to support regional and global stability.”
And they conclude by reaffirming “unwavering support for Ukraine” and pledge to maintain economic pressure on Russia, saying:
Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues to negatively impact the global economy. Russia must not benefit from this conflict, and as market conditions allow to avoid exacerbating disruptions to supply chains and energy prices, we will continue collaborating on ways to increase pressure. We remain committed to upholding the rules based international system.
Revealed: How Donald Trump drives up geopolitical risk
Donald Trump has added to geopolitical risk today by threatening to row back on the trade deal the US signed with the UK last year.
Professor Costas Milas, of the Management School at University of Liverpool, has created a graph showing how Trump can inflame geopolitical risk, for months.
Professor Milas explains:
President Trump keeps on dominating the news with aggressive, contradicting, and often opaque statements. His latest one? That he might reconsider the US-UK trade deal.
There is no doubt, in my mind, that Trump himself is a big source of geopolitical risk. Why? Consider a Google measure of Trump dominating the news together with global geopolitical risk acts (from the website of Matteo Iacoviello). I collect monthly data from 2015 (first term of Trump as President) and show below how a “shock” to Trump news raises global geopolitical risk acts for as many as nine (9) months.
The impact is statistically significant using a 95% confidence interval. World leaders do take notice!
IMF: Support on energy or food costs should be ‘targeted and temporary’
The IMF is also warning governments to be careful when providing support to citizens through the cost of living pressures created by the Iran war.
In a blog post to accompany today’s Fiscal Monitor, they say:
If governments decide to help companies and families facing higher energy or food costs, this support should be targeted and temporary, focusing on those most exposed and least able to absorb price increases. Many countries built effective social safety nets during the pandemic; these mechanisms can—and should—be used again.
Countries with “narrow fiscal space” should avoid financing support measures with additional borrowing, the Fund argues, saying:
A better approach is to reallocate spending within the same limits and prioritize crisis-related spending (which could be more politically feasible).
The alternative is to lock in higher debt and higher interest costs, which will eventually force tougher choices—or worse, destabilize government debt markets and worsen conditions today.
IMF hails UK’s budget deficit improvement
Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund has applauded the UK’s progress in reducing its budget deficit last year.
A day after slashing the UK’s growth forecasts, the IMF cited Britain as an example of an major economy which managed to trim its borrowings, after the UK’s deficit fell from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025.
In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, just released at its spring meeting in Washington, the IMF says:
In 2025, the headline deficit for advanced economies excluding the United States held broadly steady at 2.4% of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio for these economies fell only marginally to 95.3%, effectively unchanged from its 2019 level prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The United Kingdom recorded a notable improvement, reducing its deficit to 5.4% of GDP, with the change driven by tax increases, tax threshold freezes, and the expiration of temporary measures for energy support.
Canada and Japan also posted gains, reflecting spending restraint. These gains were partly offset by the use of some fiscal space by countries with historically strong fiscal positions, such as Korea and The Netherlands.
The IMF is forecasting that the UK’s annual budget deficit will drop to 3.9% of GDP this year, and continue falling until 2031 when it will be 1.6% of GDP, the second-lowest in the G7 after Canada.
In contrast, the US will need revenue and expenditure measures over the medium term to control its deficit, given “the persistence of primary spending and the scale of projected deficits”, the IMF says.
The Fund also warns Rachel Reeves not to stray from her fiscal rules, saying:
In the United Kingdom, adhering to established spending envelopes while strengthening the efficiency of value-added and property taxes is key to rebuilding buffers.
IMF: Global debt still on track to hit 100% of GDP by 2029
Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund is warning that the war in the Middle East has added a new source of fiscal pressure to the global economy.
In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, just released, the IMF points out that global public debt dynamics did not improve in any material way in 2025, even before the Iran conflict drove up the oil price.
It says:
The conflict has material global reach, disrupting energy supplies, tightening financial conditions, and forcing governments to choose between shielding their populations from price spikes and preserving fiscal space.
The IMF also warns that the fiscal picture has worsened coompared with a year ago – when Donald Trump’s trade wars were causing instability.
Global gross government debt rose to nearly 94% of GDP in 2025, and is on track to reach 100% by 2029, for the first time since the aftermath of the second world war (as the IMF also warned last October).
The IMF says the the projected increase in global debt largely reflects the increase in debt in the world’s two largest economies, China and the US, explaining:
The United States is running a general government deficit of 7 percent to 8 percent of GDP despite operating near full capacity, with no debt consolidation plan in sight, and its gross debt is projected to reach 142 percent of GDP by 2031.
China’s near-term fiscal expansion, aimed at supporting domestic demand amid deflationary pressures, has widened the country’s overall deficit to nearly 8 percent of GDP, and persistent large deficits are expected to push its debt toward 127 percent of GDP by 2031.
Bessent: US will avoid long-term inflation hit from Iran war

Richard Partington
The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the economic shock from the Iran war will pass without driving up long-term inflation in the US, my colleague Richard Partington reports from Washington DC.
“This war will end. I don’t know if it’s 3 days, 3 weeks, 3 months, but we will get on the other side of this,” Bessent said.
“There’s always a catch-up, there’s pent-up demand.”
Speaking at the CNBC Invest in America conference in Washington on Wednesday, Bessent also said the US Fed was in danger of being caught out by falling inflation.
“I understand why they’re doing it [holding on rates]. It wouldn’t be necessarily my base case. I ‘d at least be ready to cut and I’d have an open mind that they may need to cut more because they’ve waited longer.”
Companies in New York state have reported a jump in costs this month, as the Iran war hits the US economy.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, just release, shows that “the pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month”.
Firms also reported that supply availability worsened this month too; however, they remain optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.
Most European stock markets are resolutely flat today, as investors try to judge the Iran situation.
Germany’s DAX index has gained just 0.05%, while Italy’s FTSE Mib is up a mere 0.2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 index is now 0.15% higher.
That’s countered by France’s CAC 40, which has slipped by 0.6% – pulled down by luxury goods firms Kering and Hermès following the latter’s results.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, says there have been “some conflicting reports” from the Middle East today, adding:
Trump has just come out and said that Iran is about to reach an agreement, confirming earlier reports that two sides had agreed ‘in principle’ on extending the truce.
Other reports have quoted Iran’s military warning continued US blockade would break the ceasefire, while Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson has said that they do not confirm any details mentioned by western media about the negotiations.
Who do you believe? Well, markets certainly appear to be believing Trump. Though the dollar and oil prices rebounded slightly, markets still seemed to be leaning quite heavily toward a constructive outcome. That said, it still feels a touch premature to be pricing in a smooth resolution.
While I think a degree of caution is still warranted, markets are quite optimistic, judging by the big risk rally we have seen this week. Meanwhile a flurry of central bank speakers will no doubt keep things ticking over today, though it’s likely that any headlines out of the Iran negotiations will remain the dominant driver for FX.
Hermès reports Iran war hitting luxury goods sales
Miatta Mbriwa
The French luxury group Hermès has reported that the Iran war is hitting sales in France, as fewer tourists visit Paris and high-spending shoppers pull back on buying designer products amid growing concerns over the conflict’s toll on the global luxury sector.
Sales of its flagship Birkin and Kelly handbags as well as silk scarves and perfume rose by 6% in currency-adjusted terms, underperforming analysts’ expectations in the first-quarter of 7.1%. Currency fluctuations pulled the company’s revenue down by €290m (£250m), prompting a 1% drop in reported sales to €4.07bn compared to €4.13bn last year.
Hermès has said that sales in France have been “affected by a slowdown in tourist flows” owing to the US-Israeli war with Iran, adding that it is hitting sales in concession stores at airports and in other key markets such as the Middle East. Despite being the fastest-growing region for Hermès in 2025, sales in the Middle East dropped by 6% in currency-adjusted terms, to €160m, compared to €185m euros in 2025’s first quarter.
The company’s chief financial officer, Éric du Halgouët, cited “the geopolitical events affecting the region in March,” as playing a significant part in the downturn.
Hermès is the latest luxury group to report a slump in sales following the outbreak of the conflict in late February. Major rival in the sector LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group reported its seventh consecutive quarter of declines on Monday, rising just 1%. French luxury goods company Kering also reported an 8% tumble in sales at its key brand Gucci this week.
Executive chair of Hermès, Axel Dumas, said: “In a tense geopolitical environment, Hermès maintains its course, true to its long-term strategy…continuing its profitable growth in 2026 with confidence and conviction.”
Shares in Hermès are down 8%, having dropped by 14% at the start of trading.
Pizza chain Franco Manca shutting stores and cutting jobs

Sarah Butler
Pizza chain Franco Manca is to close 16 of its 70 restaurants via an insolvency process with the likely loss of about 225 jobs.
The company said “external cost pressures” including increases in the legal minimum wage, business rates and employers’ national insurance contributions, meant a number of its restaurants were “no longer sustainable.”
The casual dining chain, which is part of Fulham Shore, which also owns The Real Greek chain, is owned by Toridoll, the Japanese operator of Wok to Walk and Marugame Udon, and restaurant sector investment fund Capdesia.
It recently appointed advisory firm Alvarez & Marsal to look at options for the future of the business and is thought to have considered a number of takeover bids before deciding to implement a Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA)a, an insolvency process under which a company can cut rents and exit leases.
A sale of The Real Greek is still under consideration, according to Propel, the industry newsletter which first reported the CVA.
Marcel Khan, the chief executive of The Fulham Shore which was bought by Toridoll and Capdesia for £93m in 2023, said:
“Over the last two years under our current management, we have been making strong progress against several key performance indicators, with productivity, customer satisfaction, happiness ratings, loyalty and frequency improving significantly.
However, even restaurant businesses that are doing all the right things from a customer and operational perspective are not immune to widely publicised pressures impacting the hospitality industry. This includes significant increases in National Insurance and the national living wage in recent history, as well as a lack of business rates relief for the restaurant sector and disproportionately high VAT in the UK compared with Europe.
As a result of these external cost pressures, we have to make sure that we are putting our business on a sustainable footing for long-term growth and development. This is why we have taken the difficult decision to undertake a CVA for Franco Manca, which will see a minority proportion of our restaurants closing where they are no longer sustainable in this cost environment.
“We are deeply saddened by the closures of a minority proportion of our restaurants, and will support our affected team members throughout this process in every way that we can.”
Bank of America posts 17% jump in profits
Bank of America has become the latest Wall Street bank to post a jump in profits after the Iran war created market volatility.
BofA has reported a 17% jump in net income in the first quarter of this year, up to $8.6bn from $7.4bn in January-March 2025.
Revenues rose by 7%, including a 21% jump in investment banking fees, and a 13% rise in sales and trading revenue at the bank’s global markets division.
Chair and CEO Brian Moynihan attributed the jump in earnings to “disciplined execution”, adding:
Revenue growth of 7% year-over-year included net interest income that was better than we expected, up 9%, as well as double-digit growth in sales and trading revenue, investment banking fees and asset management fees.
We remain watchful of evolving risks. However, we saw healthy client activity, including solid consumer spending and stable asset quality, indicating a resilient American economy.
Fox News are broadcasting an interview with Donald Trump now, in which he is being asked about the Iran war and its impact on the US economy.
The US president said the war would slow economic growth, saying: “There’s going to be a hit.”
But he added that gas prices are “coming down very soon and very big”, saying he believed they will be “much lower” before the midterm elections.
That’s from our Middle East liveblog:
Sanctioned tanker turns back to strait of Hormuz
A US-sanctioned tanker. which sailed through the strait of Hormuz yesterday has now pulled a u-turn and returned to the Gulf, shipping data shows.
Rich Starry, which had been placed under US sanctions for dealing with Iran, abruptly turned north last night and headed back towards the strait.
This indicates it failed to break through the US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports.
Another sanctioned tanker, Elpis, has stopped near the place where Rich Starry turned around…
Oil rises on report US sending thousands more troops to Mideast
The oil price has pushed higher, following a report that the US is sending “thousands” more troops to the Middle East.
According to the Washington Post, the Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops to the region. The move is to put pressure Iran into agreeing a deal, but US officials have also said they are considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire does not hold, they say.
The Washington Post reports:
The forces moving into the region include about 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several warships escorting it, said current and former officials, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military movements.
About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month.
Brent crude is now up 1.2% at around $96 a barrel.
Rogoff warns markets are ‘naive’ if they think it’s ‘mission accomplished’ in Iran
The financial markets are being ‘naive’ if they think the Middle East conflict is resolved, Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff has suggested.
Rogoff says it’s ‘puzzling’ that the markets are taking a ‘no problem’ approach to the war, with US stocks near record highs amid hopes that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad later this week.
Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Rogoff says:
I think it’s naive to think it’s mission accomplished. I think it’s a temporary respite.
The Iranian regime is still in place, Frankly the US regime is still in place, and I think more things will happen.
But…the markets have just decided it doesn’t matter, everything’s going to be fine. I think it’s a little naive.
Rogoff warns that the war is already a “big stagflationary shock”, on top of the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs which is still working its way through the system.
Over the medium term, this pushes interest rates up, not down, he explains.
After climbing most days since the Iran war started, UK mortgage rates may have reached a plateau.
The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.89%, unchanged from Tuesday, data from Moneyfacts shows.
The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.77%, which is also unchanged.
UK News
Starmer was kept in dark about Mandelson’s vetting by two other top civil servants | Peter Mandelson
Keir Starmer was kept in the dark about sensitive information relating to Peter Mandelson’s security vetting by two other top civil servants, including the head of the civil service, the Guardian can reveal.
The prime minister said on Friday that it was “unforgivable” and “staggering” that senior officials did not tell him that Mandelson failed a security vetting process weeks before he took up his role as ambassador to Washington.
Olly Robbins was forced out of his job as permanent secretary of the Foreign Office on Thursday after it was revealed his department granted Mandelson developed vetting clearance against the advice of the relevant agency.
Now the Guardian can reveal that two other top civil servants, including the cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo, failed to immediately notify him when they discovered that UK Security Vetting (UKSV) had advised that Mandelson should be denied clearance.
Downing Street has said Starmer did not find out about the vetting failure, which occurred in January 2025, until Tuesday this week. However, the Guardian has established that both Romeo, the government’s most senior civil servant, and Catherine Little, the Cabinet Office’s permanent secretary, have been aware since March.
Their delay in informing the prime minister will fuel concern about whether his government is being run by mandarins rather than ministers.
Romeo, who was appointed by Starmer in February, was told about the failure by Little in March. Little is the top civil servant at the Cabinet Office, which UKSV is part of. Her department has also been overseeing the process of complying with a “humble address”, parliamentary motion that ordered the government to release “all papers” relevant to Mandelson’s appointment.
The motion made an exception for papers prejudicial to national security or international relations, which it said should be released to the intelligence and security committee (ISC).
A government source insisted Little “did not sit on the information” but was involved in a complex process and was trying to establish the risks in sharing highly sensitive information, including with the prime minister. The source added that Little informed Romeo of her plan to establish those risks. Romeo, the government source said, was supportive of the plan.
That process appears to have taken weeks, with as many as a dozen officials and lawyers aware of Mandelson’s vetting failure. Starmer’s statement would suggest he was not formally notified by any of them until a few days ago.
At the centre of the controversy was an extraordinary summary document produced by UKSV on 28 January last year, weeks after Starmer had announced Mandelson would be his ambassador to Washington.
The document identified highly sensitive concerns UKSV had about Mandelson and recommended, in conclusion, that he should not be given security clearance. It was that recommendation that was overruled by the Foreign Office.
A Cabinet Office spokesperson said that, after receiving the UKSV document after the humble address, Little “immediately undertook a series of expedited checks in order to be in a sound position to share the document, or the fact of it”.
The spokesperson said this included receipt of legal advice about what could be shared in the context of the humble address and consideration of whether the information would prejudice criminal proceedings.
Little also sought information from the Foreign Office about “the process they had followed” when deciding to give Mandelson security clearance against the advice of UKSV, the spokesperson said. They added: “As soon as these checks were conducted, the prime minister was informed.”
According to a government source, Little had always been of the view that the outcome of the UKSV process should be made public, and the relevant document disclosed in unredacted form to the ISC. However, officials in her department have in recent weeks been divided over how to proceed and whether to release the document to the committee at all.
Prior to the publication of the Guardian’s story on Thursday, there was said to have been “no consensus” among officials. Some flagged national security concerns and argued it would be “unprecedented” to disclose the UKSV file, even to the ISC, a committee comprising nine MPs and peers, including Jeremy Wright, a former attorney general, and Alan West, a retired Royal Navy admiral.
Its members are sworn to secrecy under the Official Secrets Act and are given access to highly classified material. According to one source familiar with debates swirling in Little’s department, there were fears among at least some officials that there might be an attempted “cover-up” and the document would never see the light of day.
Some officials noted that the UKSV document appeared to contradict statements made by the prime minister and his former chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, that implied vetting failures could partly be blamed for Mandelson’s appointment.
Amid an impasse among officials, some in government are said to have argued that precedent should be set aside to disclose the UKSV documents to the committee, and tjat anything short of that would risk breaching the wishes of parliament.
The discussion about whether or not to release the documents to the parliamentary committee appears to have lasted for weeks. If Downing Street’s chronology is to be believed, the prime minister was completely oblivious that it was even happening.
By Wednesday this week, one compromise option being considered involved providing unredacted versions of the document only to two ISC members, such as the chair and one other member. Another was only showing the documents to those members of the committee who are also members of the privy council, a historical body that advises the monarch.
One source said Little is now expected to be asked to appear before the ISC in a closed hearing to answer questions about the affair. Lord Beamish, who chairs the ISC, has said that his committee and parliament would take a “very dim view” if documents were withheld from its members.
A Cabinet Office spokesperson said Little and officials working on the humble address “have always worked on the basis of being transparent about the UK Security Vetting recommendation”.
Neither the Cabinet Office nor No 10 have disputed, however, that there has been an internal debate over whether the materials could be withheld. That raises questions about the accuracy of public remarks on Friday by the chief secretary to the prime minister, Darren Jones.
A close ally of Starmer, Jones was asked on the BBC’s Today programme to comment on the Guardian’s report that “officials have toyed with the idea at least of not revealing all of this to parliament”.
He replied: “That’s not true. All of these documents are going through what’s called the humble address process, which my department is responsible for.”
Asked if he had misled the public, a source close to Jones insisted that his answer was “clearly focused on the official government response to the humble address, which he makes clear later in his answer.”
UK News
Irish fugitive and suspected crime boss Daniel Kinahan arrested in Dubai
Kinahan, in his 40s, was arrested in Dubai on foot of an arrest warrant issued by the Irish courts.
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Man found guilty of rape that led to Andrew Malkinson’s wrongful imprisonment | Crime
A man who evaded justice for more than two decades has been found guilty of the “horrific” 2003 rape for which Andrew Malkinson was wrongfully jailed for 17 years.
Paul Quinn, 52, was convicted by a jury on Friday after a fresh forensic analysis found traces of his DNA on the victim.
The father-of-six was convicted of two counts of rape, attempted strangulation and grievous bodily harm. He was found not guilty of two counts of indecent assault, which were alternative counts to the rapes.
Quinn sat with his head bowed and removed his glasses as the verdicts were returned. He will be sentenced on 5 June.

It can now be revealed that Quinn is being investigated as a potential suspect in other serious sexual assaults, including three rapes that took place while he was at large.
Greater Manchester police are now facing questions about why he was not investigated at the time despite being a convicted sex offender who lived near the scene of the attack.
Instead, detectives focused on Malkinson, who was jailed in 2004 and went on to spend 17 years in prison while protesting his innocence.
His conviction was eventually quashed in 2023, becoming one of the most notorious miscarriages of justice in modern British history.
In a statement read by a police officer after the verdicts, the victim of the rape said she was very pleased with the result but added: “It does not change the fact that two lives have been impacted in such a way.”
The mother-of-two, who was 33 at the time of the attack, said the investigation had “robbed Mr Malkinson of 17 years” and “robbed me of the life I wanted to have”. She added: “The impact of what happened that day has stayed with me and will stay for life.”
Malkinson said he was content that the right result had been reached but that Quinn “could have been caught a long time ago”.
He added: “Instead, they wanted a quick conviction and I was a handy patsy forced to spend over 17 years in prison for his horrific crime. All those responsible for allowing this dangerous man to wander free whilst I was locked up must now be held to account.”
A jury at Manchester crown court was told that Quinn’s DNA was identified on samples of the victim’s clothing in October 2022 after a fresh forensic review.
Police and prosecutors knew as long ago as 2007 that an unidentified man’s DNA was found on the victim but decided not to carry out further tests at the time.
The organisation responsible for investigating potential miscarriages of justice, the Criminal Cases Review Commission, also declined to commission further forensic work and refused twice to refer Malkinson’s case to the court of appeal.
An investigation by the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) is investigating five former Greater Manchester police officers on suspicion of gross misconduct, including one who is under criminal investigation. A sixth officer, still serving at GMP, is being investigated on suspicion of misconduct.
The police watchdog is examining GMP’s destruction of evidence in the Malkinson case, its failure to disclose the criminal histories of two key witnesses in the 2004 trial, and whether those witnesses were offered incentives to testify against the innocent man.
Steph Parker, an assistant chief constable at GMP, said the verdicts had come “two decades too late for all involved in this horrendous case”.
Parker paid tribute to the victim and Malkinson, offering both an unreserved apology on behalf of the force, which she said would continue to support the IOPC and the public inquiry.
She added: “Paul Quinn is a dangerous man. He is the one responsible for this horrific attack, and he has known it all along for more than 20 years. The harm he has done to the victim and the cowardice of watching the wrong man go to prison for his crime is unforgivable.”
Quinn admitted in court that it was his DNA on items of the victim’s clothing, including a vest top above her left nipple that had been partly severed in the attack.
He suggested the woman may have been one of “hundreds” of local women he claimed to have “copped off with” in Little Hulton, Greater Manchester.
Quinn had lived in the area all of his life until he moved to Exeter in 2017 over what police said they believed was a drug debt he owed.
Jurors at Manchester crown court were not told about the drug dispute or that Quinn had been convicted of twice raping a 12-year-old girl in 1990 and 1991, when he was 16.
Four years earlier, when he was 12, he received a criminal caution for the indecent assault of a woman.
By the end of his teens, Quinn had convictions for burglary, actual bodily harm, possessing an air gun, and arson with intent after setting fire to a wheelie bin outside the home of an ex-girlfriend while she was inside with her children.
It emerged during the trial that he had repeatedly searched online for details about the case.
In 2019, before Malkinson’s case was widely known as a miscarriage of justice, he looked up an article from the original trial before Googling “wrongly convicted cases UK”. He claimed this was because he was fascinated by true crime documentaries.
Quinn had given his DNA to police in 2012 as part of a nationwide operation to get samples from serious offenders whose crimes were carried out before the national DNA database was established in 1995. It was this sample that eventually led the police to his door in 2022.
He appears to have known the day would come, however. The trial heard he had searched repeatedly “how long is DNA kept in database” in the weeks after the Guardian revealed in 2022 that a fresh analysis linked another man to the 2003 attack.
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