Friedrich Merz’s first steps as German chancellor proved to be a stumble and, one year on, he is still struggling to find his footing at the helm of Europe’s top economy and most populous country, with support at historic lows and the far right poised to pounce.

The conservative Christian Democrat took office on 6 May 2025 after a humiliating loss in the first round of voting in parliament. It raised doubts, right from the start, about the stability of his coalition government with the Social Democrats.

Lawmakers formally elect the chancellor after a general election, and it is typically assumed they will rubber-stamp the new government’s chosen candidate.

Mystery still lingers about the identity of the 18 unnamed rebels in the secret ballot who denied Merz his majority, but it set the tone for an administration marred by crises, gaffes, outbursts and mistrust.

“The cart is certainly stuck in the mud,” Merz biographer Daniel Goffart said this week, summing up a sense of strategic helplessness by the government in the face of compounding emergencies and intractable conflicts at home and abroad.

A recent survey for US-based opinion research institute Morning Consult found Merz to have the second-lowest approval rating of 24 democratically elected world leaders, with just 19% of Germans saying they are satisfied with his work.

Senior aides privately say that Merz’s record unpopularity for a postwar chancellor is unfair given the size of the challenges he has had to face – from an often hostile Donald Trump to deindustrialisation in crucial sectors and, since the war in Iran, surging fuel prices.

They blame negative media coverage for driving a narrative of dysfunction and paralysis, and cite achievements including cutting new asylum applications by more than half, making big investments in defence and infrastructure, and addressing chronic shortages in the country’s armed forces in response to the threat posed by Russia.

However, critics say persistent rivalries and tensions within the government, combined with Merz’s communication style being erratic at times, have undermined a sense of common purpose given the enormous challenges facing Germany.

The chancellor has repeatedly caused anxiety or offence with offhand comments meant to set him apart from the cautious approach of his two predecessors, Olaf Scholz and Merz’s longtime rival Angela Merkel, on issues ranging from immigration and work to the future of the pension system.

“Merz is an impulsive guy, sometimes emotional,” Goffart said. “That can be refreshing but not always. And at the age of 70, it is probably not going to change.”

Late last month, Merz, who has prided himself on keeping the lines of communication to Trump open with flattery and pragmatism, stunned observers with an unvarnished critique of the US-led war in Iran to a classroom full of school pupils.

The blunt comments triggered a spat with the White House that soon threatened to turn into a historic rupture, with an angry Trump announcing a drawdown of at least 5,000 US troops stationed in Germany as well as punishing new trade penalties on European cars.

The vast majority of voters have dwindling faith that the coalition can revive the struggling economy, rescue a car industry under siege from Trump’s tariffs and Chinese competition, and recalibrate a social welfare system facing a looming demographic crunch.

Political commentator Nils Minkmar drew parallels with Timmy the wayward whale, a massive once-mighty but now slowly dying creature, and the quixotic efforts to rescue it: “A symbol for the whole country.”

“I have rarely seen a federal government as clueless as the Black-Red coalition in the face of Trump’s war on Iran,” he said, in reference to the governing parties’ colours.

Just as the suffering humpback was towed to the Atlantic “where – according to the miracle-belief surrounding the whale – it will then wave at the cameras as fit as Flipper”, Minkmar said, “so parts of the Union [Merz’s conservatives] want to steer the whole republic back to some golden age” using incremental measures such as petrol rebates and taxation tweaks.

“None of this will work,” he said. “There are enough people in the coalition parties who know better, but everyone is sitting on the fence. No one dares to come out of hiding. So Europe’s largest economy lies waiting on the sandbank. We are Timmy.”

Political consultant Johannes Hillje said Merz’s lack of previous experience as a head of government had exposed key skill gaps, while his promises as a former business executive to ignite a quick economic recovery had fizzled.

“Merz’s premiership is suffering because his personal shortcomings in communication and management are compounded by a structural crisis in the country, the resolution of which requires, above all, sound management and effective communication,” Hillje said.

“No one would claim that this leader faces easy tasks, but by making relatively simple mistakes he is making the job of governing even harder than it already is.”

Asking Germans to tighten their belts and make sacrifices now for their children’s and grandchildren’s future prosperity had to be matched with trust that Merz and his vice-chancellor, Social Democrat Lars Klingbeil, had not yet earned, Hillje said.

“Tough measures need to be backed by a vision that is broader and more appealing than a single painful reform. Such a vision is clearly lacking. Merz needs to incorporate more explanation and empathy into his communication.”

Despite the repeated setbacks, however, Goffart dismissed doomsday rhetoric about the government, even in the face of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, which is leading in several polls but kept from power with a “firewall” maintained by mainstream parties.

Despite frequent clashes, Goffart said the ruling parties appeared committed to sticking it out, also to thwart the disaster of a government collapse which the AfD could exploit in new elections.

“For better or for worse, they are a bit chained together,” he said of the coalition partners, dismissing speculation that Merz would give up on the alliance in favour of a minority government, potentially propped up with AfD support.

Merz would be unable to form a majority with any other party but the Social Democrats, Goffart added, even if their poll numbers currently fall short: “They all know that even if they bicker and get fed up, there is no alternative and that focuses minds.”

Some of the Australian women linked to Islamic State fighters face arrest and possible charges on their return from Syria this week, with the government and federal police promising a hardline response when the group touches down.

The home affairs minister, Tony Burke, confirmed that the government was aware that four Australian women and nine of their children had begun the journey home, after more than a decade of planning by a joint Asio and Australian federal police counter-terrorism taskforce.

Their arrivals, via flights from Doha, are expected on Thursday.

The government insists it has provided no assistance to the group, who were among a larger group of 34 Australian women and their children who had been stuck in al-Roj camp in northern Syria for several years, since the territorial collapse of Islamic State.

Australian citizens cannot legally be prevented from returning to the country unless a formal exclusion order is in place. Burke has issued a single order to prevent one woman in Syria from returning, based on Asio advice about a national security risk.

On Wednesday morning the government was alerted to the planned departure of a group of 13 who left al-Roj and travelled to Damascus last month. They all hold Australian passports.

“These are people who have made the horrific choice to join a dangerous terrorist organisation and to place their children in an unspeakable situation,” Burke said.

“As we have said many times – any members of this cohort who have committed crimes can expect to face the full force of the law.”

The AFP commissioner, Krissy Barrett, said some of the adults in the group faced arrest and possible charges when they arrived in Australia, while the children would be required to take part in an anti-extremist program. They would also receive psychological support.

She would not disclose how many of the adults faced arrest, due to operational considerations by police.

Behind-the-scenes planning for the group’s return has been under way for 10 years, including a community liaison team working with affected local communities.

“Operational planning for the return of these individuals started in 2015,” Barrett said. “The joint counter-terrorism teams … include some of the most experienced national security investigators and analysts in this country.”

Asio’s director general, Mike Burgess, said advice about the group had been provided to policing agencies. “The government understands our assessed risk,” he said.

“It’s up to them what they do when they get here. If they start to exhibit signs of concern, we and the police, through the joint counter-terrorism teams, will take action.

“I’m not concerned immediately by their return but they’ll get our attention, as you expect.”

The group began their second attempt to travel home to Australia last month after a much larger cohort was turned back by Syrian authoritiesin February. Syrian authorities were taking the group to Damascus, amid international pressure for countries to take back foreign fighters stuck in the camp.

The US has pushed countries including Australia to repatriate citizens who had travelled to the Middle East to join the IS caliphate but the issue has dogged successive governments.

Labor under Anthony Albanese had supported bringing the families home as recently as 2022 but the politics surrounding the return of the group has dramatically shifted since the December shootings at Bondi Beach.

Albanese has refused to help the group, saying the adults had “made their bed” and should suffer the consequences of their actions.