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Hungary beware: authoritarianism can be checked, but it is rarely dismissed with a single blow | Blanche Leridon

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“Historic” is an adjective used too often these days, at the risk of trivialising the word and diluting its substance. But Sunday’s Hungarian election, which marked the fall of Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, deserves the label. The chief architect of European illiberalism, the man who dismantled Hungary’s rule of law, presided over a system of endemic corruption and stood as an avowed enemy of Ukraine is gone.

The scale of the moment is undeniable. For Ukraine and for the European project, the relief is palpable. With an election turnout of 79.5% – the highest the country has seen since the fall of the USSR – and a strong mobilisation of the youth vote, the Hungarian people have delivered a clear mandate for change. Despite the explicit support of Donald Trump and the Maga-sphere, despite an electoral map gerrymandered in his favour and a locked-down media landscape, Orbán lost. What is more, he lost so decisively that he was forced to concede immediately. There is, without a doubt, reason for enthusiasts of liberal democracy to celebrate – a “Budapest spring” in its own right.

However, we must be wary of the baggage this “historic” label carries. We should not expect too much, too soon. We are dealing with “long history” here – one election cannot bring about an instant return to liberal democracy. Experience across Europe shows that these national-populist episodes are not mere parentheses; they leave deep scars that take years to heal.

Poland’s example shows this process will take time. When Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition defeated the Law and Justice (PiS) party in 2023, there was a similar euphoria. Yet more than two years later, the rule of law in Poland is still not fully restored and PiS remains a potent force: it is the largest parliamentary group by number of seats and the Polish president, Karol Nawrocki, is backed by the party. This “Polish paradox” stems from the inherent tension of attempting to dismantle an illiberal system while respecting the very democratic principles one is seeking to restore. As we discovered in our recent research for Institut Montaigne, the Tusk government faced a dilemma: how could it correct the judicial appointments and decisions of the past decade without undermining legal certainty or violating procedural safeguards?

In Hungary, the task facing Péter Magyar will be even more daunting. Poland’s national-populist experiment lasted “only” eight years; Orbán was in office for 16. Furthermore, while PiS lacked the two-thirds majority needed to fully rewrite the Polish constitution, Orbán successfully enshrined his illiberalism into the foundations of the Hungarian state. Magyar inherits a “captured” state in which loyalists remain entrenched in every public structure, while key sectors of the economy and society – from the media to privatised universities – remain under the control of a pro-Orbán oligarchy.

Magyar is a conservative and former Fidesz insider who has pledged to tackle corruption and restore ties with Europe. He ran a good campaign, crisscrossing the country while maintaining a strong and effective presence on social media. But he inherits a country in a critical condition: since 2020, inflation in Hungary has exceeded 50%, while the country ranks 55th on the Economist’s Democracy Index (between Thailand and Sri Lanka), such that the country would be unable to join the EU if it were applying to do so today.

There was something both inevitable and incomplete about Orbán’s defeat. It was inevitable, given the wear and tear of long-term power and the failure to deliver on his own core promises of national grandeur and natalist policy. But his defeat also remains incomplete, because it takes infinitely more time and energy to rebuild than it does to dismantle. The legal vulnerabilities we have seen in Poland – where the levers of power remain beyond the executive’s reach due to a hostile presidency or a contested constitutional tribunal – will be mirrored, and likely amplified, in Hungary. Questions remain about how far Magyar, who now holds the two-thirds majority necessary to amend the constitution, will go in dismantling the system and whether the EU will maintain its pressure to ensure a genuine return to the rule of law.

This difficulty is compounded by what we might call the Trump factor. Just as Donald Trump has shown that a populist movement can survive and even thrive after losing power, Orbán’s brand of politics is now deeply rooted in Hungary. Orbán is only 62, and with his American ally providing a blueprint for the comeback narrative, he will probably wait for the new coalition to struggle with the realities of a broken economy. He will be betting on the frustration of voters when the historic change they voted for fails to produce an instant miracle. As Orbán said on Sunday evening after conceding defeat: “We never give up. This is one thing people know about us: we never give up.”

The electoral upset in Budapest follows another significant setback for the national-populist front: Giorgia Meloni’s failure to pass her constitutional referendum on judicial reform in Italy. The Italian case is complex and serves as a powerful double-edged lesson. On the one hand, it confirms that even the most pragmatic-looking populists eventually seek to weaken the independence of the judiciary to consolidate executive power. On the other, it proves that institutional counter-powers and public opinion can still act as effective roadblocks. Yet Meloni remains both in power and notably popular, demonstrating that a populist leader can survive a defeat without losing their political grip. This ambivalence highlights the resilience of these rightwing movements: they can be checked, but they are rarely dismissed with a single blow.

Sunday’s election was a victory not just at, but for the ballot box, and people are right to treat it with enthusiasm. But we must acknowledge that national populism is designed to survive the downfall of its creators. The Hungarian people have ended Orbán’s reign, but the work of reclaiming their state has only just begun. If Magyar’s new government cannot navigate the legal traps left behind, the ghost of the old regime – and its allies in Washington and Moscow – will be ready to return. In the history of populism, the first defeat is rarely the last.



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Nurse punched neighbour and forced her way into her home in row over parking

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Christine Sharman demanded her neighbour move his car, before lunging at his wife and punching her in the chest.



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Starmer was kept in dark about Mandelson’s vetting by two other top civil servants | Peter Mandelson

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Keir Starmer was kept in the dark about sensitive information relating to Peter Mandelson’s security vetting by two other top civil servants, including the head of the civil service, the Guardian can reveal.

The prime minister said on Friday that it was “unforgivable” and “staggering” that senior officials did not tell him that Mandelson failed a security vetting process weeks before he took up his role as ambassador to Washington.

Olly Robbins was forced out of his job as permanent secretary of the Foreign Office on Thursday after it was revealed his department granted Mandelson developed vetting clearance against the advice of the relevant agency.

Now the Guardian can reveal that two other top civil servants, including the cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo, failed to immediately notify him when they discovered that UK Security Vetting (UKSV) had advised that Mandelson should be denied clearance.

Starmer says it is ‘staggering’ and ‘unforgivable’ he was not told Mandelson failed vetting – video

Downing Street has said Starmer did not find out about the vetting failure, which occurred in January 2025, until Tuesday this week. However, the Guardian has established that both Romeo, the government’s most senior civil servant, and Catherine Little, the Cabinet Office’s permanent secretary, have been aware since March.

Their delay in informing the prime minister will fuel concern about whether his government is being run by mandarins rather than ministers.

Romeo, who was appointed by Starmer in February, was told about the failure by Little in March. Little is the top civil servant at the Cabinet Office, which UKSV is part of. Her department has also been overseeing the process of complying with a “humble address”, parliamentary motion that ordered the government to release “all papers” relevant to Mandelson’s appointment.

The motion made an exception for papers prejudicial to national security or international relations, which it said should be released to the intelligence and security committee (ISC).

The cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo (left), with Keir Starmer at a cabinet meeting in February. Photograph: Kin Cheung/AFP/Getty Images

A government source insisted Little “did not sit on the information” but was involved in a complex process and was trying to establish the risks in sharing highly sensitive information, including with the prime minister. The source added that Little informed Romeo of her plan to establish those risks. Romeo, the government source said, was supportive of the plan.

That process appears to have taken weeks, with as many as a dozen officials and lawyers aware of Mandelson’s vetting failure. Starmer’s statement would suggest he was not formally notified by any of them until a few days ago.

At the centre of the controversy was an extraordinary summary document produced by UKSV on 28 January last year, weeks after Starmer had announced Mandelson would be his ambassador to Washington.

The document identified highly sensitive concerns UKSV had about Mandelson and recommended, in conclusion, that he should not be given security clearance. It was that recommendation that was overruled by the Foreign Office.

A Cabinet Office spokesperson said that, after receiving the UKSV document after the humble address, Little “immediately undertook a series of expedited checks in order to be in a sound position to share the document, or the fact of it”.

The spokesperson said this included receipt of legal advice about what could be shared in the context of the humble address and consideration of whether the information would prejudice criminal proceedings.

Little also sought information from the Foreign Office about “the process they had followed” when deciding to give Mandelson security clearance against the advice of UKSV, the spokesperson said. They added: “As soon as these checks were conducted, the prime minister was informed.”

According to a government source, Little had always been of the view that the outcome of the UKSV process should be made public, and the relevant document disclosed in unredacted form to the ISC. However, officials in her department have in recent weeks been divided over how to proceed and whether to release the document to the committee at all.

Peter Mandelson photographed near his home in London on Friday. Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/Reuters

Prior to the publication of the Guardian’s story on Thursday, there was said to have been “no consensus” among officials. Some flagged national security concerns and argued it would be “unprecedented” to disclose the UKSV file, even to the ISC, a committee comprising nine MPs and peers, including Jeremy Wright, a former attorney general, and Alan West, a retired Royal Navy admiral.

Its members are sworn to secrecy under the Official Secrets Act and are given access to highly classified material. According to one source familiar with debates swirling in Little’s department, there were fears among at least some officials that there might be an attempted “cover-up” and the document would never see the light of day.

Some officials noted that the UKSV document appeared to contradict statements made by the prime minister and his former chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, that implied vetting failures could partly be blamed for Mandelson’s appointment.

Amid an impasse among officials, some in government are said to have argued that precedent should be set aside to disclose the UKSV documents to the committee, and tjat anything short of that would risk breaching the wishes of parliament.

The discussion about whether or not to release the documents to the parliamentary committee appears to have lasted for weeks. If Downing Street’s chronology is to be believed, the prime minister was completely oblivious that it was even happening.

By Wednesday this week, one compromise option being considered involved providing unredacted versions of the document only to two ISC members, such as the chair and one other member. Another was only showing the documents to those members of the committee who are also members of the privy council, a historical body that advises the monarch.

One source said Little is now expected to be asked to appear before the ISC in a closed hearing to answer questions about the affair. Lord Beamish, who chairs the ISC, has said that his committee and parliament would take a “very dim view” if documents were withheld from its members.

A Cabinet Office spokesperson said Little and officials working on the humble address “have always worked on the basis of being transparent about the UK Security Vetting recommendation”.

Neither the Cabinet Office nor No 10 have disputed, however, that there has been an internal debate over whether the materials could be withheld. That raises questions about the accuracy of public remarks on Friday by the chief secretary to the prime minister, Darren Jones.

A close ally of Starmer, Jones was asked on the BBC’s Today programme to comment on the Guardian’s report that “officials have toyed with the idea at least of not revealing all of this to parliament”.

He replied: “That’s not true. All of these documents are going through what’s called the humble address process, which my department is responsible for.”

Asked if he had misled the public, a source close to Jones insisted that his answer was “clearly focused on the official government response to the humble address, which he makes clear later in his answer.”



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Irish fugitive and suspected crime boss Daniel Kinahan arrested in Dubai

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Kinahan, in his 40s, was arrested in Dubai on foot of an arrest warrant issued by the Irish courts.



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