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Grand National stats: Can trends find 2026 winner of Aintree race?
Official rating
Every horse in training is giving an official rating by the handicapper based on the level that they run to. Fourteen of the past 16 winners have been rated 146+, with 13 of those between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett were rated 159 and 163 going into the past two editions so a higher mark may be a positive.
Runs since September
In the first seven runnings this decade, five winners had run six times since September, with the others having five and three outings.
That trend has settled down in the past 10 years, with the average being four runs. Noble Yeats had seven before his 2022 run, while five had been in three races.
No winner in the past 25 editions has run fewer than three times that season.
Trainer location
An English trainer last won the race in 2015, with an Irish trainer winning seven of the nine since. Scot Lucinda Russell has had two winners, though she has no runners this year.
Breeding
Of the 24 hours to win the race this century, 18 were Irish-bred, four were French-bred and two British-bred.
Finish last time out
Of the past 25 winners, 11 have finished in the top two of their previous run.
Six of the past eight winners also won their previous race, though Noble Yeats was ninth and Minella Times pulled up.
Four of the six winners before that had finished in the top four too, so the trends suggest form is a factor.
Career falls
Every winner this century except Auroras Encore had two or fewer falls in their career prior to the race.
In the past decade, Minella Times is the only horse to have fallen in their career and won the Grand National.
Won over three miles or more
Twenty one of the 24 different horses to have won this century have all registered at least one career win over three or more miles before winning the National.
Eighteen of them have won more than two races over that trip, though two of the past five aren’t included in that group.
Days since last run
The average break between runs for the past 10 winners is just over 41 days, with a range of 24-84 days.
If you take out the two highest and lowest, you’re left with a gap of 36 days.
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Reform Senedd worker's social media featured dozens of racist and anti-Muslim posts
Derek Roberts, who had planned to stand for the Senedd until he quit, now works for Member of the Senedd Gaz Thomas.
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Doomscrolling: is it really worth five years of your one wild and precious life? | Social media
Name: Doomscrolling.
Age: The term first emerged in 2018, but took off in 2020 (when the doom got especially heavy).
Appearance: All-consuming.
Of course it’s all-consuming! Have you seen the horrors going on out there? War, climate collapse, AI … We need to stay informed: the robot apocalypse is coming, and I, for one, intend to be ready. Intentionally consuming news from reliable sources is one thing, but do you have any idea how much time you spend inadvertently making yourself scared and angry on your phone?
No, and I suspect this is not information I will enjoy learning. Definitely not. New survey data suggests people might spend up to five years of their waking lives doomscrolling.
What? That cannot be right – break it down for me. Well, a Virgin Media O2 survey of more than 6,000 people across the UK has found that 36% of our phone use is “unintentional”. That’s automatically flicking between apps and checking our phones out of habit, idly letting our thumbs show us all the most upsetting, frightening things out there (interspersed with adverts for protein powder and podcasts).
Mine are for Dubai and mindfulness apps, but go on. That’s an hour and 26 minutes a day, or 41,000 hours in a lifetime (for someone who gets a smartphone aged 10 and survives to the predicted average age of 88).
My doomscrolling suggests it’s unlikely any of us will be surviving to 88 soon. But that is shocking. It’s four years and eight months, somewhere between the lifespan of a feral pigeon and a ferret.
A weird way to put it, but OK. Fine. In four years and eight months, a human goes from a helpless larva to a fully fledged person with bladder control and opinions about Bluey.
Better. Just think what you could do in that time. You could do a PhD, you could go to veterinary school and find out how to extend feral pigeon lifespans, you could write 107 romance novels (if you match Barbara Cartland’s 1976 record of 23) … You could go to Jupiter (almost, theoretically)!
I could not do any of that. Maybe not, but you can certainly do better things with your one wild and precious life than “unintentionally” scrolling through infinite horrors on your phone because a bunch of irresponsible billionaires precision-engineered it that way. Study something fun, travel, volunteer …
You’re right, but how? As you say, the billionaires have stitched us up. In 2020, journalist Karen Ho created a Twitter “doomscrolling reminder bot” that issued helpful nightly reminders (“Hey, are you doomscrolling?”) to encourage people to stop. Surely now it would be easy to get AI to do something similar, but customised for each of us?
Are you saying this is something the technology my doomscrolling has made me terrified of could actually help with? Who knows, but stranger things have happened.
Do say: “Hey, are you doomscrolling?”
Don’t say: “You have 10 seconds to stop before your robot overlord administers your mandated punishment.”
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