Oxford News
Expert Comment: From frontier to feedback loop – Why space must become circular
Dr Yige Sun
Since 1957, when humanity first placed an artificial satellite into orbit, space has shifted from being ‘the final frontier’ to a critical domain underpinning navigation, finance, weather forecasting, disaster response, streaming and communications. More than 60% of smartphone-enabled services rely directly or indirectly on space-based assets. The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, and in the UK alone space activity currently supports 18% of national GDP and over 55,000 jobs.
Space is no longer an empty frontier; it is now essential infrastructure, and like all infrastructure, it carries environmental consequences. But rapid commercial expansion raises a pressing question: can the space economy become circular before congestion makes it brittle?
Why has space become so crowded?
For decades, space missions have followed a linear model: launch, operate, discard. This approach was tolerable when launch frequency was low and orbital density manageable – but this is not the case now.
Orbital space is governed largely by voluntary guidelines. Disposal rules lack enforcement, and liability frameworks designed for state-led missions struggle to address today’s commercial, multi-actor environment.
Launch costs have fallen sharply over the past decade, with the cost of reaching Low Earth Orbit (LEO) plummeting from roughly $54,500/kg during the Space Shuttle era (1981-2011) to approximately $1,400/kg with the SpaceX Falcon Heavy in 2018, a 95% reduction. This has brought us into the era of the ‘mega-constellation’ – perhaps best illustrated by Starlink. As of late 2025, Starlink comprised approximately 9,400 satellites – a staggering 65% of all active satellites in orbit and roughly 52% of all mass in LEO.
With thousands of operational satellites in LEO and tens of thousands more planned, the problem is not merely aesthetic clutter. It is systemic risk. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), as of January 2026, there were about 14,200 active satellites in orbit, yet these are shadowed by over 54,000 tracked debris objects (greater than 10 cm) and an estimated 1.2 million dangerous fragments between 1cm and 10cm (with another 140 million between 1 mm to 1 cm).
Orbital debris travels at speeds of up to 10 km/s (10 to 20 times faster than a bullet), with collision speeds reaching 14–15 km/s. This means that even small fragments carry destructive energy. ESA’s Space Environment Health Index currently sits at a concerning level of 4, far exceeding the threshold of 1 required for long-term orbital sustainability.
Despite these risks, orbital space is governed largely by voluntary guidelines. Disposal rules lack enforcement, and liability frameworks designed for state-led missions struggle to address today’s commercial, multi-actor environment. This encourages risk externalization: operators deploy rapidly and long-term stewardship becomes a secondary cost.
Durability is sustainability
On Earth, circular economy principles seek to decouple growth from resource depletion through reuse, repair, remanufacture and material recovery. In orbit, this means shifting from disposable satellites to serviceable, upgradeable and recoverable assets. Recent research estimates that recovering and reusing orbital debris could unlock a net material value of between $570 billion and $1.2 trillion.
The Satellite Applications Catapult’s In-orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM) test bed. Credit: Satellite Applications Catapult.
But circularity in space is not just about recycling debris; it is about designing systems so failure does not automatically produce debris. For instance, refuelling and modular upgrades can convert stranded assets into adaptive infrastructure. In-orbit servicing and assembly allow systems to evolve rather than be replaced wholesale. Even extending the lifetime of individual missions reduces manufacturing demand and launch frequency.
My recent work with Mr Gary Cannon and Mr Mike Curtis-Rouse at the Satellite Applications Catapult establishes that serviceable satellite and spacecraft architectures – modular systems, traceable material interfaces and robotic-compatible access points – can significantly extend operational lifetimes and enable in-orbit upgradeability. This work provides a critical link between high-level UK policy ambitions, such as the National Space Strategy (2021) and the Rendezvous and Proximity Operations Regulatory Sandbox (2025), and the actionable engineering principles required for serviceable system design. Sustainability is not an end-of-life correction, but a core requirement embedded at the design inception. By addressing these vulnerabilities early, satellites can be transformed from disposable units into maintainable infrastructure assets.
Life-cycle thinking must begin before launch. The environmental footprint of a satellite is embedded in material extraction, cleanroom fabrication and launch emissions. These decisions must be integrated at the architecture stage rather than retrofitted later.
Additionally, there is a burgeoning market for approaches that harness in-space manufacturing; reusing and servicing satellites already in orbit and – in the future – manufacturing new materials directly in space that benefit from the microgravity environment. This sector generated $4.4 billion in revenue in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2024 to 2032.
Beyond hardware: The governance challenge
There is a burgeoning market for approaches that harness in-space manufacturing; reusing and servicing satellites already in orbit and – in the future – manufacturing new materials directly in space.
But the challenge is not merely engineering; it is institutional design.
Legal frameworks built in 1967 (Outer Space Treaty) and 1972 (Liability Convention) were not designed for proximity operations, robotic servicing or shared orbital infrastructure. Governance lag creates uncertainty for investors and discourages adoption of circular practices.
Without regulatory clarity, circular practices remain voluntary, allowing competing actors to externalize costs. A circular space economy requires enforceable disposal norms, transparent debris tracking, clearer liability allocation and incentives that reward life extension over replacement.
The economic logic for circularity is already clear. As satellite deployment accelerates, congestion imposes a ‘debris tax’ through increased manoeuvres, insurance premiums and shortened operational lifetimes. In 2025 alone, Starlink satellites executed approximately 300,000 collision avoidance manoeuvres, a 50% increase from 2024, demonstrating the immense fuel and management burden of a hyper-congested environment. The World Economic Forum projects that debris-related costs could reach $42.3 billion over the next decade if unmitigated. Circular design reduces exposure to these risks by stabilising the shared orbital environment.
Space is the next internet
Space has evolved into a critical layer of global infrastructure. Infrastructure that cannot circulate resources, manage risk and renew itself ultimately collapses under its own growth.
Much like the early internet, space activity is now expanding beyond its initial boundaries in LEO, with lunar communications networks, logistics platforms and resource extraction under active discussion. If linear extraction models are exported beyond Earth before circular governance frameworks mature, congestion and conflict risks may scale with expansion.
Sustainability in space is not about slowing innovation. It is about preventing systemic fragility.
Space is no longer an experimental domain. It has evolved into a critical layer of global infrastructure. Infrastructure that cannot circulate resources, manage risk and renew itself ultimately collapses under its own growth.
Space circularity is therefore not environmental idealism. It is strategic self-preservation.
You can read the report ‘Technical Considerations for Serviceable Spacecraft’ co-authored by Dr Yige Sun, here.
For more information about this story or republishing this content, please contact [email protected]
On Wednesday, September 2, it was the Concours judging and private viewings to dominate the agenda for the day.
Twelve Concours classes were held across almost a century of motoring, including The Golden Age of Motoring, 100 Years of Carrrozzeria Touring, La Dolce Vita, 60 Years of the Lamborghini Miura and Passione Ferrari.
Two new classes also made their debut for 2026, Rare Breeds of the Digital Age and Hypercar Heaven, which recognise the growing importance of contemporary performance cars within the international collector market.
Judging will take place across Wednesday and Thursday, with the show field bringing together a 70-strong collection of classics, supercars and hypercars from around the world.
Some of the cars include Aa Maserati 8C 3000, Alfa Romeo Sprint Berlinetta, a one-off Maserati 3500GT Spyder Prototipo by Vignale, a very early Porsche 356 Split Window Coupé, Aston Martin DB3S, Lamborghini Miura P400S, Bizzarrini 5300GT, Ferrari 250 GT Series 1 Cabriolet, Bugatti EB110 Prototype, Aston Martin Valiant Prototype and the extraordinary Bugatti Bolide, one of just 40 produced worldwide.
Helen Pike has decided to step down as Master of Magdalen College School at the end of the 2026/27 academic year, the school in east Oxford announced in March.
MCS is one of the top performing schools in the country, ranking in the top 20 independent secondary schools in The Sunday Times Parent Power Schools Guide 2026.
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The new academic year will start next week, with Ms Pike preparing for one more year in charge before she hands over to her successor, who will take over in September 2027.
The first female Master at MCS, Ms Pike guided the board of governors to one of the most significant decisions in the school’s history, to become fully co-educational from 2027.
While there has been a co-educational sixth form at the school for 15 years, the school last month announced it will become fully co-educational over the coming decade.
Ms Pike said earlier: “I love MCS, and it is a perennial privilege to lead this remarkable school.
“Being Master of MCS is a brilliant job, and I am declaring my intention early in order to give MCS the very best opportunity to find the right Master for September 2027. I shall continue to do all in my power to further the fortunes of this wonderful school until then.
“I look forward to a new phase in my own professional life, one that builds on all that I have enjoyed and achieved in my career during the past 30 years.
“Having encouraged many cohorts of pupils to take sensible risks and to do something creative and different when the time feels right, I am doing just that.”
During Ms Pike’s tenure, MCS has been recognised as a Top 20 Independent School and South East School of the Year by the Sunday Times and won Independent School of the Year for Social Mobility.
Thanking her in his letter to the school community, chair of governors, Bob Price, said earlier this year: “Helen is an outstanding leader and will go with our sincere gratitude and warm thanks for her exceptional headship.
“She will leave the school in excellent shape for her successor.”
Recruitment for a replacement for Ms Pike is now under way.
Last month, Ms Pike congratulated pupils on their “outstanding success” in this year’s A-Level exams, after more than a quarter of pupils (43) achieved three A*s or more and 25 secured all A*s.
In total, 39 pupils from the 2026 cohort are heading to Oxbridge, while 22 have secured places to study medicine.
As part of the school’s expansion plans, MCS is preparing to build a new Science, Library and Partnerships building.
A spokeswoman said the new building will offer an exciting opportunity to reimagine the senior school site as staff look ahead to full co-education.
She added earlier: “With a vision to create a sector-leading science building in the centre of Oxford, the development will enable us to support an ambitious and forward-looking science curriculum, expanding to the emerging and rapidly advancing areas of robotics, AI and Big Data.”
Holding banners which read ‘For f**k’s sake, just stop oil’, the demonstrators took to the road in Parliament Square at noon today (Wednesday, September 2).
This was as Andy Burnham faced his first Prime Minister’s Questions, and many of the protestors glued themselves to the road.
The group demanded that the UK government stop approving all further oil and gas developments, and sign a Fossil Fuel Treaty to stop oil and gas extraction.
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Just Stop Oil say that the police are expected to arrest all those blocking the road, and that one lane has been left free of glued-on action takers to permit access for emergency vehicles.
Andy Burnham is due to make a decision on whether to allow more drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea.
Reverend James Crote, a Baptist Minister and grandfather from Chesterton near Bicester, said: “Today is my grandson’s first birthday. I have to take action for the sake of his future.
The 69-year-old added: “The government has been dilly-dallying about whether to say yes or no to the Rosebank oil field but, if we want a future for our children, there is no choice – it has to say ‘no’.
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“I am here as a Christian Minister because the Church has to speak out and demand that the government stops approving further oil and gas developments now. It’s time for us all to say ‘For God’s sake, Just Stop Oil’.”
Data from the Met Office indicates that 2026 was the hottest summer in UK recorded history, beating 2025, which was the previous hottest summer on record.
2026 was also one of the driest summers on record, delivering record-low food harvests.
Climbing temperatures have triggered wildfires across the country, and national fire chiefs said the wildfire risk facing the UK is “like nothing we have seen before”.
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Taking action, grandmother Victoria Ann Lynch-Staunton from Leamington Spa, said: “What is happening is beyond a tragedy.”
The 71-year-old added: “I beg everyone to join Just Stop Oil or governments will continue to prioritise endless growth and corporate profit over billions of lives – yours and your children.
“Wake up and smell the coffin. It is the responsibility of all of us to act now!”
A Just Stop Oil spokesperson said today: “We are all Just Stop Oil.
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“Every single person who fears deadly wildfires, devastating droughts, and spiralling food shortages is Just Stop Oil.
“The first duty of government is to keep the public safe – but by greenlighting oil and gas drilling, they endanger our survival while corporates and billionaires laugh their way to the bank.
“Every one of us feels alone and powerless in the face of this insanity, but we know there is massive political and public support for our demand.
“So we’re inviting everyone to join us at an online call on 3rd October 2026 – because it’s when we work together that we are powerful and win.”
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