Oxford News
Expert Comment: From frontier to feedback loop – Why space must become circular
Dr Yige Sun
Since 1957, when humanity first placed an artificial satellite into orbit, space has shifted from being ‘the final frontier’ to a critical domain underpinning navigation, finance, weather forecasting, disaster response, streaming and communications. More than 60% of smartphone-enabled services rely directly or indirectly on space-based assets. The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, and in the UK alone space activity currently supports 18% of national GDP and over 55,000 jobs.
Space is no longer an empty frontier; it is now essential infrastructure, and like all infrastructure, it carries environmental consequences. But rapid commercial expansion raises a pressing question: can the space economy become circular before congestion makes it brittle?
Why has space become so crowded?
For decades, space missions have followed a linear model: launch, operate, discard. This approach was tolerable when launch frequency was low and orbital density manageable – but this is not the case now.
Orbital space is governed largely by voluntary guidelines. Disposal rules lack enforcement, and liability frameworks designed for state-led missions struggle to address today’s commercial, multi-actor environment.
Launch costs have fallen sharply over the past decade, with the cost of reaching Low Earth Orbit (LEO) plummeting from roughly $54,500/kg during the Space Shuttle era (1981-2011) to approximately $1,400/kg with the SpaceX Falcon Heavy in 2018, a 95% reduction. This has brought us into the era of the ‘mega-constellation’ – perhaps best illustrated by Starlink. As of late 2025, Starlink comprised approximately 9,400 satellites – a staggering 65% of all active satellites in orbit and roughly 52% of all mass in LEO.
With thousands of operational satellites in LEO and tens of thousands more planned, the problem is not merely aesthetic clutter. It is systemic risk. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), as of January 2026, there were about 14,200 active satellites in orbit, yet these are shadowed by over 54,000 tracked debris objects (greater than 10 cm) and an estimated 1.2 million dangerous fragments between 1cm and 10cm (with another 140 million between 1 mm to 1 cm).
Orbital debris travels at speeds of up to 10 km/s (10 to 20 times faster than a bullet), with collision speeds reaching 14–15 km/s. This means that even small fragments carry destructive energy. ESA’s Space Environment Health Index currently sits at a concerning level of 4, far exceeding the threshold of 1 required for long-term orbital sustainability.
Despite these risks, orbital space is governed largely by voluntary guidelines. Disposal rules lack enforcement, and liability frameworks designed for state-led missions struggle to address today’s commercial, multi-actor environment. This encourages risk externalization: operators deploy rapidly and long-term stewardship becomes a secondary cost.
Durability is sustainability
On Earth, circular economy principles seek to decouple growth from resource depletion through reuse, repair, remanufacture and material recovery. In orbit, this means shifting from disposable satellites to serviceable, upgradeable and recoverable assets. Recent research estimates that recovering and reusing orbital debris could unlock a net material value of between $570 billion and $1.2 trillion.
The Satellite Applications Catapult’s In-orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM) test bed. Credit: Satellite Applications Catapult.
But circularity in space is not just about recycling debris; it is about designing systems so failure does not automatically produce debris. For instance, refuelling and modular upgrades can convert stranded assets into adaptive infrastructure. In-orbit servicing and assembly allow systems to evolve rather than be replaced wholesale. Even extending the lifetime of individual missions reduces manufacturing demand and launch frequency.
My recent work with Mr Gary Cannon and Mr Mike Curtis-Rouse at the Satellite Applications Catapult establishes that serviceable satellite and spacecraft architectures – modular systems, traceable material interfaces and robotic-compatible access points – can significantly extend operational lifetimes and enable in-orbit upgradeability. This work provides a critical link between high-level UK policy ambitions, such as the National Space Strategy (2021) and the Rendezvous and Proximity Operations Regulatory Sandbox (2025), and the actionable engineering principles required for serviceable system design. Sustainability is not an end-of-life correction, but a core requirement embedded at the design inception. By addressing these vulnerabilities early, satellites can be transformed from disposable units into maintainable infrastructure assets.
Life-cycle thinking must begin before launch. The environmental footprint of a satellite is embedded in material extraction, cleanroom fabrication and launch emissions. These decisions must be integrated at the architecture stage rather than retrofitted later.
Additionally, there is a burgeoning market for approaches that harness in-space manufacturing; reusing and servicing satellites already in orbit and – in the future – manufacturing new materials directly in space that benefit from the microgravity environment. This sector generated $4.4 billion in revenue in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2024 to 2032.
Beyond hardware: The governance challenge
There is a burgeoning market for approaches that harness in-space manufacturing; reusing and servicing satellites already in orbit and – in the future – manufacturing new materials directly in space.
But the challenge is not merely engineering; it is institutional design.
Legal frameworks built in 1967 (Outer Space Treaty) and 1972 (Liability Convention) were not designed for proximity operations, robotic servicing or shared orbital infrastructure. Governance lag creates uncertainty for investors and discourages adoption of circular practices.
Without regulatory clarity, circular practices remain voluntary, allowing competing actors to externalize costs. A circular space economy requires enforceable disposal norms, transparent debris tracking, clearer liability allocation and incentives that reward life extension over replacement.
The economic logic for circularity is already clear. As satellite deployment accelerates, congestion imposes a ‘debris tax’ through increased manoeuvres, insurance premiums and shortened operational lifetimes. In 2025 alone, Starlink satellites executed approximately 300,000 collision avoidance manoeuvres, a 50% increase from 2024, demonstrating the immense fuel and management burden of a hyper-congested environment. The World Economic Forum projects that debris-related costs could reach $42.3 billion over the next decade if unmitigated. Circular design reduces exposure to these risks by stabilising the shared orbital environment.
Space is the next internet
Space has evolved into a critical layer of global infrastructure. Infrastructure that cannot circulate resources, manage risk and renew itself ultimately collapses under its own growth.
Much like the early internet, space activity is now expanding beyond its initial boundaries in LEO, with lunar communications networks, logistics platforms and resource extraction under active discussion. If linear extraction models are exported beyond Earth before circular governance frameworks mature, congestion and conflict risks may scale with expansion.
Sustainability in space is not about slowing innovation. It is about preventing systemic fragility.
Space is no longer an experimental domain. It has evolved into a critical layer of global infrastructure. Infrastructure that cannot circulate resources, manage risk and renew itself ultimately collapses under its own growth.
Space circularity is therefore not environmental idealism. It is strategic self-preservation.
You can read the report ‘Technical Considerations for Serviceable Spacecraft’ co-authored by Dr Yige Sun, here.
For more information about this story or republishing this content, please contact [email protected]
Alexandra House of Joy was founded in 2018 by husband and wife, Ian and Rachel Scott-Hunter to build the site on Middle Wretchwick Farm in Bicester.
The centre was Alexandra’s dream and will support and care for young and old adults with profound learning disabilities and their primary care givers.
Rachel said: “This is a legacy to our very brave and inspirational daughter. If we walked away, it would dishonour all that she went through.
“We know first-hand what families like ours are facing – the worry, fear, stress, isolation and loneliness, day and night, year after year.
“Love drives us, but love shouldn’t mean having to struggle without support.”
Alexandra, who was born at St David’s Hospital in Bangor, North Wales, suffered a brain haemorrhage four days after birth. This confined her to a life in a wheelchair where she was totally dependent on others. She died of sepsis in 2019.
From 1991, when Alexandra entered adult social care, the couple say they saw “how fragile and unfair the system could be” and now warn of a “shocking and disgraceful” erosion of adult social care.
READ MORE: Traditional pub near Oxford plans to change its look
“We were heard, marginalised, excluded, ignored and utterly disrespected,” the co-founder said, “No-one was doing anything so we had to bring change.
“As services have disappeared, many are facing exhaustion, isolation and heartbreak alone.
“Families caring for people with profound learning disabilities in our community are being left behind.”
Despite this, the couple has raised £982,434 over the last eight years and are now only £17,565 off their £1m goal which will secure the start of the three-phase building project.
When the doors finally open, Rachel hopes her daughter’s legacy will be one “of love, courage and quiet strength.”
She said: “Our centre will offer care, hope and relief for people. People with profound learning disabilities will be valued and family caregivers will know they are not alone.”
Phase one, which aims to break the ground by early 2027, will see the construction of a four-bed purpose-built centre to support up to 25 families a month.
Phase two would add more bedrooms, extra activity rooms and a hydrotherapy pool, while phase three would see the creation of a small hospice service with two beds, a family lounge and relatives’ apartment.
The charity has been supported by local businesses and organisations, including Bicester Motion, Bicester Village and Bicester Tesco, who have hosted fundraising events over the years.
A fundraising tandem skydive will take place at Brackley Airfield in July and MP Calum Miller, the charity’s ambassador, will be joining supporters to climb Snowdon in September 2026 to raise funds.
St Hugh’s School, a co-educational day school and boarding school for pupils aged three to 13, is located at Carswell Manor, and is about to launch a new senior school.
The independent school will welcome its first cohort of Year 9 pupils in September 2026, with the first group of GCSE pupils completing their studies in 2029.
READ MORE: UK private school prepares for expansion
The opening of the senior school follows the purchase of nearly 20 acres of land next to the existing site.
The newly acquired land will play a central role in the school’s strategic vision for the next five to 10 years.
To coincide with the launch of the senior school, free bus travel is being trialled for pupils.
The school said in a statement: “We are thrilled to share our new initiative for all our families in September 2026.
“Through our existing bus routes, and an additional Oxford route, we are offering our families a free bus service to and from school for pupils in Years 1-9.
“We are hoping this offering will support our families both financially and logistically, whilst delivering on our pledge to be more sustainable as a school and to reduce congestion within the local area.”
The school added buses can be booked for just morning or afternoon each day.
It said: “In addition, we will offer a free breakfast club for pupils in Year 1 and above who are unable to use our current offering of bus routes.
“Supper will also be available for all Year 3 pupils free of charge. This is an addition to our existing free wrap-around care provision before and after school for children from reception upwards.
“We hope that this initiative will offer families greater flexibility to ensure we support them logistically on a day-to-day basis.”
Both the free transport and meal provision will run as a trial for the 2026-2027 academic year, during which the school will assess enthusiasm, viability, and long-term sustainability.
If uptake remains strong, the school hopes to expand the offer further in future.
To ensure fair access for as many as possible, and to prevent block bookings for unused seats or meals, St Hugh’s will introduce a small charge to cover costs in cases where journeys or meals are missed at short notice.
St Hugh’s has been working closely with architects to shape a comprehensive development plan, including a new dining room, enhanced teaching spaces, and expanded facilities for the pre-prep, prep, and the new senior school which formally opens in June this year.
An open morning for prospective parents and pupils was held on May 8, and places at the senior school are now being advertised.
The party group has a new leadership team in place after it held its seats at the May 7 polls, but failed to make new gains in the authority.
Dr Chris Smowton, who led the group for four years and into the 2026 vote, has been replaced by Katherine Miles, who represents Summertown.
She said: “I am delighted to take the baton from Chris as we head into a critical period of time of change in our city.
“The local government re-organisation will reshape the way the city is run – we need to ensure Oxford has a strong voice.
“I will work to seek a fairer and more sustainable open economy in Oxford and tackle the dual climate and nature emergencies.”
Ms Miles was first elected in 2021 and has lived in Oxford for more than a decade.
Her background is in international development, women’s financial inclusion and climate risk insurance.
She added: “Thank you to Chris Smowton for his effective leadership of the group over the last four years. I look forward to continuing to work together.”
Dr Smowton, who represents Headington, will now be deputy leader of the group.
He said: “This is a vital year for Oxford as we go into a generational change in local government structure.
“I will work to hold the Labour minority to account and fight to ensure we deliver affordable housing, genuinely safe roads and a cleaner, greener city.”
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