Oxford News
Expert Comment: From frontier to feedback loop – Why space must become circular
Dr Yige Sun
Since 1957, when humanity first placed an artificial satellite into orbit, space has shifted from being ‘the final frontier’ to a critical domain underpinning navigation, finance, weather forecasting, disaster response, streaming and communications. More than 60% of smartphone-enabled services rely directly or indirectly on space-based assets. The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, and in the UK alone space activity currently supports 18% of national GDP and over 55,000 jobs.
Space is no longer an empty frontier; it is now essential infrastructure, and like all infrastructure, it carries environmental consequences. But rapid commercial expansion raises a pressing question: can the space economy become circular before congestion makes it brittle?
Why has space become so crowded?
For decades, space missions have followed a linear model: launch, operate, discard. This approach was tolerable when launch frequency was low and orbital density manageable – but this is not the case now.
Orbital space is governed largely by voluntary guidelines. Disposal rules lack enforcement, and liability frameworks designed for state-led missions struggle to address today’s commercial, multi-actor environment.
Launch costs have fallen sharply over the past decade, with the cost of reaching Low Earth Orbit (LEO) plummeting from roughly $54,500/kg during the Space Shuttle era (1981-2011) to approximately $1,400/kg with the SpaceX Falcon Heavy in 2018, a 95% reduction. This has brought us into the era of the ‘mega-constellation’ – perhaps best illustrated by Starlink. As of late 2025, Starlink comprised approximately 9,400 satellites – a staggering 65% of all active satellites in orbit and roughly 52% of all mass in LEO.
With thousands of operational satellites in LEO and tens of thousands more planned, the problem is not merely aesthetic clutter. It is systemic risk. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), as of January 2026, there were about 14,200 active satellites in orbit, yet these are shadowed by over 54,000 tracked debris objects (greater than 10 cm) and an estimated 1.2 million dangerous fragments between 1cm and 10cm (with another 140 million between 1 mm to 1 cm).
Orbital debris travels at speeds of up to 10 km/s (10 to 20 times faster than a bullet), with collision speeds reaching 14–15 km/s. This means that even small fragments carry destructive energy. ESA’s Space Environment Health Index currently sits at a concerning level of 4, far exceeding the threshold of 1 required for long-term orbital sustainability.
Despite these risks, orbital space is governed largely by voluntary guidelines. Disposal rules lack enforcement, and liability frameworks designed for state-led missions struggle to address today’s commercial, multi-actor environment. This encourages risk externalization: operators deploy rapidly and long-term stewardship becomes a secondary cost.
Durability is sustainability
On Earth, circular economy principles seek to decouple growth from resource depletion through reuse, repair, remanufacture and material recovery. In orbit, this means shifting from disposable satellites to serviceable, upgradeable and recoverable assets. Recent research estimates that recovering and reusing orbital debris could unlock a net material value of between $570 billion and $1.2 trillion.
The Satellite Applications Catapult’s In-orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM) test bed. Credit: Satellite Applications Catapult.
But circularity in space is not just about recycling debris; it is about designing systems so failure does not automatically produce debris. For instance, refuelling and modular upgrades can convert stranded assets into adaptive infrastructure. In-orbit servicing and assembly allow systems to evolve rather than be replaced wholesale. Even extending the lifetime of individual missions reduces manufacturing demand and launch frequency.
My recent work with Mr Gary Cannon and Mr Mike Curtis-Rouse at the Satellite Applications Catapult establishes that serviceable satellite and spacecraft architectures – modular systems, traceable material interfaces and robotic-compatible access points – can significantly extend operational lifetimes and enable in-orbit upgradeability. This work provides a critical link between high-level UK policy ambitions, such as the National Space Strategy (2021) and the Rendezvous and Proximity Operations Regulatory Sandbox (2025), and the actionable engineering principles required for serviceable system design. Sustainability is not an end-of-life correction, but a core requirement embedded at the design inception. By addressing these vulnerabilities early, satellites can be transformed from disposable units into maintainable infrastructure assets.
Life-cycle thinking must begin before launch. The environmental footprint of a satellite is embedded in material extraction, cleanroom fabrication and launch emissions. These decisions must be integrated at the architecture stage rather than retrofitted later.
Additionally, there is a burgeoning market for approaches that harness in-space manufacturing; reusing and servicing satellites already in orbit and – in the future – manufacturing new materials directly in space that benefit from the microgravity environment. This sector generated $4.4 billion in revenue in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2024 to 2032.
Beyond hardware: The governance challenge
There is a burgeoning market for approaches that harness in-space manufacturing; reusing and servicing satellites already in orbit and – in the future – manufacturing new materials directly in space.
But the challenge is not merely engineering; it is institutional design.
Legal frameworks built in 1967 (Outer Space Treaty) and 1972 (Liability Convention) were not designed for proximity operations, robotic servicing or shared orbital infrastructure. Governance lag creates uncertainty for investors and discourages adoption of circular practices.
Without regulatory clarity, circular practices remain voluntary, allowing competing actors to externalize costs. A circular space economy requires enforceable disposal norms, transparent debris tracking, clearer liability allocation and incentives that reward life extension over replacement.
The economic logic for circularity is already clear. As satellite deployment accelerates, congestion imposes a ‘debris tax’ through increased manoeuvres, insurance premiums and shortened operational lifetimes. In 2025 alone, Starlink satellites executed approximately 300,000 collision avoidance manoeuvres, a 50% increase from 2024, demonstrating the immense fuel and management burden of a hyper-congested environment. The World Economic Forum projects that debris-related costs could reach $42.3 billion over the next decade if unmitigated. Circular design reduces exposure to these risks by stabilising the shared orbital environment.
Space is the next internet
Space has evolved into a critical layer of global infrastructure. Infrastructure that cannot circulate resources, manage risk and renew itself ultimately collapses under its own growth.
Much like the early internet, space activity is now expanding beyond its initial boundaries in LEO, with lunar communications networks, logistics platforms and resource extraction under active discussion. If linear extraction models are exported beyond Earth before circular governance frameworks mature, congestion and conflict risks may scale with expansion.
Sustainability in space is not about slowing innovation. It is about preventing systemic fragility.
Space is no longer an experimental domain. It has evolved into a critical layer of global infrastructure. Infrastructure that cannot circulate resources, manage risk and renew itself ultimately collapses under its own growth.
Space circularity is therefore not environmental idealism. It is strategic self-preservation.
You can read the report ‘Technical Considerations for Serviceable Spacecraft’ co-authored by Dr Yige Sun, here.
For more information about this story or republishing this content, please contact [email protected]
Thames Valley Police has launched an investigation after a pigeon was killed in a wildlife crime incident in Plover Drive, Oxford, at around 6.50pm on August 24.
The force said that two teenage boys used a catapult to knock a pigeon from a tree before the bird was attacked by three smaller terrier-type dogs that were with them.
READ MORE: Oxford probe launched after ‘shocking assault’ of 60-year-old by teen boys
Descriptions of the two boys have been released with the first described as wearing a black sleeveless vest, dark-coloured bottoms, black trainers with white soles.
In addition he had a black-and-white flat-peaked cap worn backwards and was believed to have been carrying a catapult.
The second was reportedly wearing a light-coloured T-shirt and blue jeans, with brown, medium-length hair.
He was also seen carrying an unidentified item.
A spokesperson for the police said: “We are keen to hear from anyone who witnessed this incident or who may recognise those involved from the descriptions above.
READ MORE: Police race to ‘fear for welfare’ incident by Oxford BMW factory
“We would also like to hear from anyone with dashcam footage from the Plover Drive area between 6.30pm and 7pm on 24 August that may assist our investigation.
“Wildlife crime has a real impact on our communities, and we take reports of offences against wild animals and birds seriously.
” If you have any information, please contact the force on 101 or report online, quoting reference 43260448136.”
Following the incident in North Way, Barton on Monday, August 17, Thames Valley Police said it wanted the public’s help to locate Oxford local Arthur McDonagh.
The force warned the public not to approach the 33-year-old, but instead to call the police if they see him.
READ MORE: Probe launched as Oxford woman ‘assaulted’ in Vauxhall Astra car
On Tuesday, August 18, a spokesperson said: “Thames Valley Police is appealing for the public’s help to locate Arthur McDonagh, aged 33, from Oxford.
“He is wanted in connection with a serious assault that happened in North Way, Barton, yesterday (August 17).
“Arthur is known to frequent the Garsington area.
“If you have any information about his whereabouts call 101 or make a report online, quoting reference 43260426989.
“If you see him, do not approach him, but instead call 999.”
Well over a week on, the police has revealed that Mr McDonagh remains at large.
The spokesperson said today (Saturday, August 29): “Arthur McDonagh remains outstanding; our enquiries are ongoing to locate him.”
During the incident emergency services were called to Barton Village Road at about 11.10am.
The force closed North Way to the junction with Edgecombe Road while officers carried out their enquiries.
A damaged white pickup truck was left in the middle of the street, surrounded by broken glass and with what appeared to be blood splattered on the rear right-hand side.
The white pickup truck could be seen behind the police cordon.
There were multiple reports of different weapons being used during the assault, but Thames Valley Police confirmed that they do not believe an axe, bat or machete were used in the attack.
But police declined to say what weapon they do believe was used in the assault.
The force confirmed a man was taken to hospital for treatment, and that he was in a stable condition, and they thanked the local community for their support.
Following the incident, Mike Rowley, Labour councillor for Barton and Sandhills, said his thoughts were with the victim and praised local officers for their response.
READ MORE: Public told ‘DO NOT APPROACH’ amid Oxford attack manhunt
He said: “My thoughts are with the victim as the incident sounds horrible.
“I am in touch with the police, but I’m not expecting any updates yet as their priority is finding the offender and making sure there aren’t any further offences.”
Appeals for public help in finding individuals by the police can relate to suspects, witnesses or others who may have vital information in relation to the incident.
They do not mean the person is to blame nor do they imply guilt.
The alert comes ahead of the September ’76 number plate change.
New research from temporary car insurance provider Tempcover reveals that one in five drivers would not check if they were insured before test-driving a vehicle in a private sale.
With more than 4.3 million private used car sales each year in the UK, Tempcover analysis warns that uninsured test drives could top 2 million annually.
The warning follows SMMT Q2 data showing that the UK used car market recorded more than 2 million transactions, including a 67% rise in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales.
Test drives of used electric vehicles are becoming more thorough, with 43% of drivers saying they drive EVs further and for longer than petrol or diesel models, averaging an extra 2.8 miles per test.
This is often to assess battery health and charging capabilities, but driving without insurance remains illegal and carries serious penalties.
What is the punishment for being caught test-driving without correct insurance?
Motorists caught test-driving without valid cover face a £300 fine and six penalty points, or, if prosecuted in court, an unlimited fine, six to eight points, and a criminal record.
Many drivers are unaware that ‘Driving Other Cars’ (DOC) clauses in standard policies rarely cover private test drives.
Tempcover also found that 43% of motorists did not know they could purchase temporary insurance for as little as an hour to stay protected during a test drive.
This marks a sharp rise from an estimated 1.3 million during the September ’75 plate change and 1.5 million during the March ’26 plate change.
Jake Lambert, a temporary car insurance expert at Tempcover, said: “Second-hand electric cars are changing hands at an increasing pace, and buyers looking to grab an EV bargain during the September ’76 number plate change are likely to take longer, diagnostic test drives – covering more miles and driving to public charging points to vet battery performance before handing over their hard earned money.
“These extended test drives make proper insurance coverage even more crucial.
“Private sellers have no legal obligation to insure a buyer, and relying on outdated policy assumptions without verifying cover leaves drivers at risk of taking to the road without valid insurance.
“Securing fully comprehensive, temporary insurance is a simple fix that protects buyers from severe out-of-pocket costs if an accident happens.”
How does the September ’76 number plate change impact this?
UK number plates change twice a year in March and September for newly-registered vehicles, which are associated with different numbers.
Recommended reading:
March releases use the last two digits of the year, so 2026 becomes 26, while September releases add 50 to the same figure, turning 2026 into 76.
There is usually a seasonal rush when the new plates comes in which is typically driven by sellers looking to avoid the immediate depreciation that comes with an older registration.
As a result, this period may see an increased period of test drive taking place for private car sales.
Have you checked to see if you have the correct insurance to test-drive a car? Let us know in the comments.
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