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Expert Comment: Could oil price surge accelerate the UK’s shift to renewables?

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Dr Laurence Wainwright

Dr Laurence Wainwright, Departmental Lecturer and Course Director, MSc Sustainability, Enterprise and the Environment, said: 

The opening months of 2026 have been characterised by unprecedented levels of geo-political-economic turbulence, uncertainty and volatility. The launch of “Operation Epic Fury” on 28 February has had, and will continue to have, profound implications for global energy availability, cost, and security – as well as significant broader economic implications. 

For the United Kingdom, the crisis represents an acute threat to an already stuttering and fragile economy. A rise in energy costs adds to the growing list of interrelated challenges facing the country, which include significant low productivity, a heavily constrained national budget, record taxation rates, and a seemingly omnipresent cost of living crisis.

The conflict has also served to reignite the row over North Sea drilling. Proponents argue that the UK should utilise its vast reserves and it is necessary for domestic survival. 

Simultaneously, the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade has said that “doubling down on renewables” represents the most prudent way forward to protect against such a shock from ever impacting the UK again. 

Research from the Oxford Smith School supports this. Our work has shown that ‘solving’ the elusive wicked problem of the energy trilemma – affordability, security/independence, and environmental sustainability – can only be attained through countries completely weaning off fossil fuels. In the immediate term however, there is little the Government can do, and already stretched low- and middle-income earners will take a significant hit. Given the Government’s current economic woes and record national debt, Whitehall has only limited options to assist the public with energy prices. 

This energy shock, although painful, may serve as the tipping point that dramatically increases the pace of global adoption of renewables. History has shown us – perhaps sadly – that it is often the case that sticks, rather than carrots, are what cause humans to change their ways. The current situation may serve as just that stick.

Professor Cameron HepburnProfessor Cameron Hepburn

Professor Cameron Hepburn, Battcock Professor of Environmental Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, and Director of the Economics of Sustainability Programme, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, said: 

The surge in oil prices past $110 a barrel following the Iran conflict is the most significant energy shock since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the echoes of 1973 are hard to ignore — petrol station queues are already forming across the UK  and the government has had to reassure the public there is no fuel shortage – which there isn’t.

Drivers will feel the impact at the pump within ten to fourteen days, but the 1.5 million households reliant on heating oil are being hit right now, with costs jumping by hundreds of pounds in a matter of days.

For the roughly 33 million households on standard energy tariffs, the Ofgem price cap shields them until July, but wholesale gas prices have already surged and that protection simply delays the pain by a few months.

It might seem really worrying that the UK’s gas storage currently holds barely a day and a half of supply — down from twelve days a few years ago.  Actually, though, we currently have reliable supplies through Norwegian pipelines, even if we are now paying the highest wholesale gas prices in Europe for the privilege.

Unlike 1973, we now have a partial insurance policy: wind and solar generate roughly a third of our electricity and are completely insulated from events in the Gulf. The tragedy is that consumers don’t yet benefit from that cheap homegrown power, because our electricity market still prices all power off the most expensive gas plant running at any given moment — meaning even EV drivers will end up being partly hit by a fossil fuel shock that moves into higher power prices.

Every pound invested in renewables, insulation grid infrastructure and other clean technologies permanently reduces our exposure to exactly this kind of geopolitical crisis. The energy transition is no longer just climate policy — it is the most credible energy security strategy the UK has.

Dr Anupama SenDr Anupama Sen

Dr Anupama Sen, Head of Policy Engagement, Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, said:

In 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a Smith School analysis found that had the UK moved away from importing Russian oil and gas after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, it would have saved ~£22 bn.

The evolving 2026 energy crisis simply reiterates this argument – if we were less reliant on oil and gas today, we would be in a much better economic position.

In the longer-term, the best way to keep energy bills low for UK households would be to expand our portfolio of generation options: renewables and batteries can go a long way in shielding electricity prices form geopolitical energy shocks. Alongside this, the UK should continue its focus on electrifying heating and insulating homes, as focusing on reducing exposure to gas volatility will keep bills down even when prices spike, as households will need less of it to stay warm and secure. 

For more information about this story or republishing this content, please contact [email protected]



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BBOWT shares tips for helping wild bees this summer

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CAN you imagine summer without the sight of bumblebees buzzing from flower to flower, or a summer lunch without juicy tomatoes or strawberries?

If we don’t help our wild bees, this could be a glimpse of the future.

Our bees are in trouble.

Bees pollinate flowers, but also many of our favourite food crops, equivalent to every third mouthful of food we eat.

But they’re losing the habitat and plants they need to survive.

In the countryside, 97 per cent of lowland meadow has already been lost and the dramatic decrease in suitable habitats isn’t just confined to rural areas.

Gardens used to act as ‘green corridors’ for wildlife to move around towns and cities, and into and out of urban areas, but are increasingly being paved over or even covered with fake grass – with no real plants at all.

Helping bees is easy though.

Anyone can take action to help wild bees whether you have a wall for vertical planting, window box, or back garden.

It’s easy to plant a bee haven and fun choosing between bee-friendly beauties like borage, foxglove and honeysuckle.

There are 15 million gardens in the UK.

Put together they cover an area that’s seven times the size of the Isle of Wight.

If we all made our gardens more bee-friendly it would have a huge impact on our wild bees.

So, what should you plant in your garden?

Bees need a supply of pollen and nectar throughout the year, from late winter/early spring when some emerge from their winter hibernation right through until the end of the year.

Plant a selection of perennials, such as bergamot, globe thistle and knapweeds, for pollen through the summer.

These will provide bees with food year after year.

Add a few annuals each year, such as borage, cornflower and sunflower for variety.

Later in the autumn, hebe and ivy provide food when summer plants have gone to seed.

Then make sure you’ve got a few winter-flowering crocuses and hellebores to help bees as they emerge on warmer winter or early spring days in need of food after their winter hibernation.

Did you know there are around 250 species of bee in the UK?

Just one species of bee, the honeybee, actually makes honey.

Then there are bumblebees, which are familiar to most of us, and many different kinds of solitary bee.

Solitary bees are fantastic pollinators for our garden plants.

They don’t live in colonies, but instead the females make their own nest without any ‘workers’ to help them.

Some make their nests in gaps in the walls of old buildings or dig holes in bare ground (look for small piles of earth with a tiny hole in the middle).

You can help some species of solitary bee in your garden by providing a ‘bee hotel’.

Cut lengths of old bamboo and tie together, or drill long holes in old pieces of wood.

Hang somewhere sunny and sheltered and, in time, the bees will move in.

The exposed cliffs at BBOWT’s Dry Sandford Pit nature reserve near Abingdon are a haven for many types of solitary bee, which burrow into the soft, sandy layers.

Look for the ‘honeycomb’ of tiny holes.

You may see the UK’s newest bumblebee in your garden – the tree bumblebee.

These were first recorded here in 2001 but they’ve now spread throughout much of England and Wales.

They have a distinctive ginger-coloured back (thorax) and black and white abdomen.

Some make their homes in old bird nest boxes as they prefer to nest above the ground.

Help ensure our bees’ survival by making your garden bee-friendly this summer.

You’ll be making a real difference to our bees and helping to ensure our summer strawberries are here to stay.

Find out more about bees and how to help them at bbowt.org.uk/different-kinds-bees.





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Buckland Primary School Weins Homes Badbury Green village

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Year Six pupils from Buckland Primary School visited Wain Homes’ Badbury Green site to learn about the housebuilding process and future career opportunities.

During the visit, students explored the stages of construction, the importance of green spaces, and the wide variety of roles available in the industry.

James Stevens, class teacher at Buckland Primary School, said: “Thank you to the Wain Homes team for giving our children an enjoyable and informative experience in a way they could easily understand.

“The children now have knowledge of how the homes they live in are built and some of the careers they may be interested in as they get older. They particularly enjoyed looking round the show homes and having a go at laying some bricks.”

The pupils toured two show homes and tried their hand at bricklaying.

A time capsule, filled with children’s notes describing life in 2026, was also buried during the visit, set to be be opened in 2076.

Tim Lund, regional sales director at Wain Homes, said: “We hope the visit inspired some of the children to consider construction as a future career. They were eager to learn and now understand each stage of the process of building a modern energy efficient home.”

Wain Homes is building 125 energy-efficient homes at the site.





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Didcot man arrested for ‘drunk and disorderly and ‘assault’

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The Thames Valley Police neighbourhood team for Didcot and Wallingford said the male was arrested on Broadway this week after officers were called to a ‘drunk and disorderly’ incident.

Before the police arrived the situation developed further, with more offences allegedly committed including assault, shoplifting and assault on police officers.

READ MORE: Abingdon police seek to identify man who ‘frequents’ park

A spokesperson for the neighbourhood team said: “In Didcot, the team were involved in the arrest of a male on Broadway for being drunk and disorderly.

“This then developed into further arrests for assault, shoplifting, and two assaults on police officers.

“Cases like this may result in court proceedings or out-of-court disposals, such as conditional cautions, community resolutions, or penalty notices, depending on the circumstances.

“Our officers will not tolerate violence or disorder in our communities.”





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