Good morning. ‘We don’t comment on leaks,’ is the usual government response to an unsanctioned lobby scoop. But this morning Peter Kyle, the business secretary, took a different response. Asked about a Times splash saying the government is making plans to deal with possible food shortages in the summer, caused by the Iran war, he told Sky News:

It is difficult for me, because, of course, these leaks are very unhelpful. But when people do read it, they need to be reassured that we are doing this kind of planning, and we are doing this kind of scenario planning.

Kyle contrasted his stance with Boris Johnson’s conduct in the early days of Covid, when the Tory PM “missed five Cobra meetings in the lead-up to it”.

The Times story, by Aubrey Allegretti, is not saying that the country is going to run out of food. But it does say that serious contingency planning is taking place, with an assumption that under a “reasonable worst-case scenario”, supermarkets might start running out of some items. Allegretti says:

Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and other supermarket goods this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found.

Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to shortages of carbon dioxide (CO₂) which is critical to the food industry …

Farming and hospitality would likely be hit earliest and hardest, given CO₂ is used to help increase the shelf life of food such as salad, packaged meats and baked goods.

CO₂ is used in the process of slaughtering nearly all pigs and more than two thirds of chickens and the sector is not thought to have much by way of surplus supplies. While the government does have stockpiles, this was said to not be a long-term solution …

While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops.

The “reasonable worst-case scenario” assumes that by June the strait of Hormuz is still closed, and there is no permanent peace deal. According to Allegretti’s story, officials are working on the basis that, in these circumstances, supplies of CO₂ could fall to just 18 per cent of present levels. This could have consequences for healthcare and the energy sector, as well as the food industry. Allegretti says one plan involves possible emergency legislation being passed to require factorsies to maximise CO₂ production.

In interviews this morning, Kyle did not dispute the story; instead he presented it as evidence of the government taking emergency planning seriously.

He told Times Radio:

I can tell you, because I’m in these meetings, the prime minister has been there since the very start, and he is going through personally and driving deep dives into lots of areas of resilience throughout our economy.

He said that at the start of the conflict he reversed the mothballing of the Ensus bio-ethanol plant in Teesside to secure supplies of carbon dioxide.

People should be reassured that we are doing this kind of action behind the scenes to keep resilience in our economy, so that when the full extent of what may or may not emerge, because this situation is still unfolding in the Middle East, you have a government that is acting with creativity and boldness.

Kyle told Sky News that supplies of CO₂ were “not a concern” now.

He went on:

If any of these things change, I will be up front with the public about it in advance so that we can prepare. But right now, people should go on as they are, enjoying beer, enjoying their meats, enjoying all the salads.

But also there are critical uses for CO₂ – MRI scanning, for example, water purification; it’s involved in our nuclear industry, our civil nuclear power industry, some defensive uses for it as well.

There’s lots of needs for CO₂, so these are the reasons why I took it so seriously way back to six months ago, not just in the last few weeks.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Keir Starmer meets executives from tech companies including TikTok, X and Meta in Downing Street to discuss restricting social media for teenagers. Last night, for the second time, MPs rejected a proposal to ban under-16s from using social media.

9.30am: NHS England publishes its monthly performance figures.

10am: John Swinney, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister, launches the SNP manifesto for the Holyrood election.

Morning: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, does a walkabout in South Wales Valleys town with the party’s Welsh leader, Dan Thomas.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Noon: The Covid inquiry publishes its report on vaccines and therapeutics.

Afternoon (UK time): Rachel Reeves attends IMF meeting in Washington. She is also doing a huddle with reporters.

4pm: Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, and Russell Findlay, the party’s leader in Scotland, attend a rally in Edinburgh.

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