Good morning. The news this morning is full of speculation about whether or not there will be a Labour leadership contest. A better way of explaining the situation might be to say that a leadership contest is already under way; Angela Rayner issued what was in effect her manifesto late yesterday afternoon (although she also hinted she would be happy for it to be delivered by Andy Burnham as leader), and Keir Starmer delivers what you could see as a hustings speech this morning.

Leaders can survive challenges. In 1995 John Major was widely seen as doomed, but Michael Portillo postponed a decision to stand against him, Major easily saw off a challenge from John Redwood (the Catherine West of his day, in some respects), and Major survived another two years. In 2016 the vast majority of Labour MPs voted no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn, but he survived (because he was adored by Labour members, a benefit that Starmer does not enjoy). In 2006 Tony Blair accepted he would have to go. But he was allowed to work his notice for a year; Gordon Brown and his allies were powerful enough to force him out, but not to force him out quickly.

No one knows where this will end up. It could end up fatal for Starmer, but that is not a certainty.

In his speech this morning, Starmer will say “incremental change won’t cut it”. According to extracts released in advance, he will say:

To meet the challenges that our country faces, incremental change won’t cut it.

On growth, defence, Europe, energy – we need a bigger response than we anticipated in 2024 because these are not ordinary times.

Strength through fairness. It’s a core Labour argument. And you will see those values writ large in the king’s speech. And you will see hope, urgency and exactly whose side we are on.

The problem Starmer faces is that for many people, including Labour MPs (like Josh Simons, who addressed this exact point in an article published yesterday), “incremental change” sounds like a definition of Starmerism.

Here is over overnight story.

And here is the agenda for the day.

10am: Keir Starmer delivers his speech.

12.30pm: Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, is due to speak at the CWU conference in Bournemouth.

Around lunchtime: Catherine West, the former minister, is expected to give her response to the Starmer speech. If she is not persuaded he can turn things around, she will formally start the process of trying to get the 81 names she needs to launch a leadership challenge.

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