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Expert Comment: Four years of full-scale war and Ukrainian resistance continues
At 5:00am on 24 February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking a dramatic escalation of a conflict that had begun in 2014 when the Russian Federation illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula and Russian-backed separatists occupied cities in Ukraine’s eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Despite ceasefires and negotiated settlements like the Minsk Agreements in 2014 and 2015, the war raged for eight years as Russian troops sought to capture Donbas. By the time of Russia’s 2022 invasion, many in the international community expected a swift and decisive Russian victory and the collapse of Kyiv within a few days – these assessments were reinforced by the comparably smaller size of the Ukrainian army in 2022 and inflated beliefs about Russia’s military capabilities.
Although Russian President Putin and also some US policymakers continue to insinuate that Russia is moving towards a battlefield victory, in reality, Russian advances have slowed in the last two years to an average rate of between 15 and 70 metres per day in the most effective offensives – these numbers are lower than almost any major offensive operation in any war in the last century.
Four years on, however, Ukraine remains an independent state and Russia continues to wage a total war against it.
While stories about the war in Ukraine now appear less often as news headlines, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion is an important moment for us to reflect on the political and military developments of the last four years. As of February 2026, it is estimated that Russia controls roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s land, having made slow gains in the east of the country in 2025 – it is approximated that Russia occupied around 1800 square miles in the last year, which is roughly three times the size of Greater London.
Although Russian President Putin and also some US policymakers continue to insinuate that Russia is moving towards a battlefield victory, in reality, Russian advances have slowed in the last two years to an average rate of between 15 and 70 metres per day in the most effective offensives – these numbers are lower than almost any major offensive operation in any war in the last century. Not only do these gains, and Russia’s overall progress on the battlefield since 2022, fall resolutely short of Putin’s original war aim of conquering the Ukrainian state, they have also come at an extraordinary price for Russia. It is difficult to ascertain losses in an active war, however, some estimates suggest that Russia has suffered nearly 1.25 million casualties (including killed, wounded, and missing) since February 2022 – more than any major power since World War II – and others approximate that at least 325,000 people have been killed fighting on Russia’s side since February 2022.
Efforts to end the now twelve-year war through negotiation have also repeatedly failed. Although American President Trump has recently taken a lead on the negotiations – including inviting Putin to Alaska and welcoming him on a red carpet in August 2025, hosting Zelensky and other European leaders in Washington a few days later, and then drafting a controversial 28-point peace plan shortly after – none of the multiple peace efforts have produced a breakthrough or even remotely lived up to his presidential campaign promise in 2024 of ending the war within “24 hours.”
It is difficult to ascertain losses in an active war, however, some estimates suggest that Russia has suffered nearly 1.25 million casualties (including killed, wounded, and missing) since February 2022 – more than any major power since World War II – and others approximate that at least 325,000 people have been killed fighting on Russia’s side since February 2022.
The most recent round of talks to end the war was the trilateral meeting of Ukraine, Russia, and the US in Geneva in mid-February 2026, yet, it, too, ended without a resolution or even a temporary ceasefire due to Russia’s determination to keep the territory it has illegally grabbed from Ukraine.
But even despite these growing international pressures on Ukraine – especially from Russia and the US – to concede land to end the fighting, Ukrainians remain committed to the defence of their country’s territorial sovereignty and political autonomy.
Whilst the costs of fighting are mounting and the benefits of continuing self-defence remain uncertain, Ukrainian citizens show nearly equal categorical opposition to Russian control as they did four years ago. Notably, resistance to conceding territory or accepting a politically neutral status without the possibility of joining the EU and/or NATO has weakened amongst some groups of the Ukrainian population since 2022, with ethnic Ukrainians, those less affected by the war, and those more trusting in Ukraine’s president comparatively holding the strongest opposition. Yet, even as roughly 55,000 of their own soldiers have been killed and more than 70,000 civilians and military personnel remain missing from the last four years of fighting against Russia’s authoritarian and imperialist agenda, Ukrainians still unequivocally reject political or territorial concessions, at any cost, to end the war.
Whereas negotiations thus far have largely ignored ordinary Ukrainians’ perspectives, focusing much more on the location of the frontline and the land that Ukraine might need to concede to satisfy Russia’s war aims, they must fundamentally be accounted for in any discussions about ending the war to ensure a just and sustainable peace.
Whereas negotiations thus far have largely ignored ordinary Ukrainians’ perspectives, focusing much more on the location of the frontline and the land that Ukraine might need to concede to satisfy Russia’s war aims, they must fundamentally be accounted for in any discussions about ending the war to ensure a just and sustainable peace.
In the face of increasing global insecurity and growing fractures in the international order, including questions around the future of NATO and European unity, Ukrainians’ resistance amidst four years of full-scale war is also as a reminder of the value of freedom and the vulnerability of democracy. Although the post-Cold War era was for a long time thought to reflect the triumph of liberal democracy, global cooperation, and the end of bipolar nuclear existential threats, Russia’s war against Ukraine shows that we are living in a time of transition towards a contested and multipolar world order with growing challenges from new illiberal powers. This reality should not to be taken lightly as democratic erosion appears to be on the rise globally, including within Europe but also in states once hailed as the leaders of democracy and the ‘free world.’
Still, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion is not only a critical moment to reflect on the fading of the liberal international order, but to realise the human costs of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Beyond civilian and military causalities, cities and communities across Ukraine have been devastated, and Ukraine is estimated to have lost roughly a quarter of its pre-2022 population through displacement domestically and abroad, Russian occupation, and the abduction of children from occupied areas. This figure does not capture the war’s secondary effects, including the lives lost due to limited access to social services or health care, or the slow violence enacted by the environmental consequences of the war.
As we enter the fifth year of the full-scale war, and the thirteenth year of the Russia-Ukraine war, it is thus important that we remember those who have and continue to endure the war firsthand – those who have fought, fled, and persevered amidst immense uncertainty and loss but who nevertheless continue to stand strong in defence of a free and sovereign Ukraine.
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On Wednesday, September 2, it was the Concours judging and private viewings to dominate the agenda for the day.
Twelve Concours classes were held across almost a century of motoring, including The Golden Age of Motoring, 100 Years of Carrrozzeria Touring, La Dolce Vita, 60 Years of the Lamborghini Miura and Passione Ferrari.
Two new classes also made their debut for 2026, Rare Breeds of the Digital Age and Hypercar Heaven, which recognise the growing importance of contemporary performance cars within the international collector market.
Judging will take place across Wednesday and Thursday, with the show field bringing together a 70-strong collection of classics, supercars and hypercars from around the world.
Some of the cars include Aa Maserati 8C 3000, Alfa Romeo Sprint Berlinetta, a one-off Maserati 3500GT Spyder Prototipo by Vignale, a very early Porsche 356 Split Window Coupé, Aston Martin DB3S, Lamborghini Miura P400S, Bizzarrini 5300GT, Ferrari 250 GT Series 1 Cabriolet, Bugatti EB110 Prototype, Aston Martin Valiant Prototype and the extraordinary Bugatti Bolide, one of just 40 produced worldwide.
Helen Pike has decided to step down as Master of Magdalen College School at the end of the 2026/27 academic year, the school in east Oxford announced in March.
MCS is one of the top performing schools in the country, ranking in the top 20 independent secondary schools in The Sunday Times Parent Power Schools Guide 2026.
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The new academic year will start next week, with Ms Pike preparing for one more year in charge before she hands over to her successor, who will take over in September 2027.
The first female Master at MCS, Ms Pike guided the board of governors to one of the most significant decisions in the school’s history, to become fully co-educational from 2027.
While there has been a co-educational sixth form at the school for 15 years, the school last month announced it will become fully co-educational over the coming decade.
Ms Pike said earlier: “I love MCS, and it is a perennial privilege to lead this remarkable school.
“Being Master of MCS is a brilliant job, and I am declaring my intention early in order to give MCS the very best opportunity to find the right Master for September 2027. I shall continue to do all in my power to further the fortunes of this wonderful school until then.
“I look forward to a new phase in my own professional life, one that builds on all that I have enjoyed and achieved in my career during the past 30 years.
“Having encouraged many cohorts of pupils to take sensible risks and to do something creative and different when the time feels right, I am doing just that.”
During Ms Pike’s tenure, MCS has been recognised as a Top 20 Independent School and South East School of the Year by the Sunday Times and won Independent School of the Year for Social Mobility.
Thanking her in his letter to the school community, chair of governors, Bob Price, said earlier this year: “Helen is an outstanding leader and will go with our sincere gratitude and warm thanks for her exceptional headship.
“She will leave the school in excellent shape for her successor.”
Recruitment for a replacement for Ms Pike is now under way.
Last month, Ms Pike congratulated pupils on their “outstanding success” in this year’s A-Level exams, after more than a quarter of pupils (43) achieved three A*s or more and 25 secured all A*s.
In total, 39 pupils from the 2026 cohort are heading to Oxbridge, while 22 have secured places to study medicine.
As part of the school’s expansion plans, MCS is preparing to build a new Science, Library and Partnerships building.
A spokeswoman said the new building will offer an exciting opportunity to reimagine the senior school site as staff look ahead to full co-education.
She added earlier: “With a vision to create a sector-leading science building in the centre of Oxford, the development will enable us to support an ambitious and forward-looking science curriculum, expanding to the emerging and rapidly advancing areas of robotics, AI and Big Data.”
Holding banners which read ‘For f**k’s sake, just stop oil’, the demonstrators took to the road in Parliament Square at noon today (Wednesday, September 2).
This was as Andy Burnham faced his first Prime Minister’s Questions, and many of the protestors glued themselves to the road.
The group demanded that the UK government stop approving all further oil and gas developments, and sign a Fossil Fuel Treaty to stop oil and gas extraction.
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Just Stop Oil say that the police are expected to arrest all those blocking the road, and that one lane has been left free of glued-on action takers to permit access for emergency vehicles.
Andy Burnham is due to make a decision on whether to allow more drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea.
Reverend James Crote, a Baptist Minister and grandfather from Chesterton near Bicester, said: “Today is my grandson’s first birthday. I have to take action for the sake of his future.
The 69-year-old added: “The government has been dilly-dallying about whether to say yes or no to the Rosebank oil field but, if we want a future for our children, there is no choice – it has to say ‘no’.
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“I am here as a Christian Minister because the Church has to speak out and demand that the government stops approving further oil and gas developments now. It’s time for us all to say ‘For God’s sake, Just Stop Oil’.”
Data from the Met Office indicates that 2026 was the hottest summer in UK recorded history, beating 2025, which was the previous hottest summer on record.
2026 was also one of the driest summers on record, delivering record-low food harvests.
Climbing temperatures have triggered wildfires across the country, and national fire chiefs said the wildfire risk facing the UK is “like nothing we have seen before”.
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Taking action, grandmother Victoria Ann Lynch-Staunton from Leamington Spa, said: “What is happening is beyond a tragedy.”
The 71-year-old added: “I beg everyone to join Just Stop Oil or governments will continue to prioritise endless growth and corporate profit over billions of lives – yours and your children.
“Wake up and smell the coffin. It is the responsibility of all of us to act now!”
A Just Stop Oil spokesperson said today: “We are all Just Stop Oil.
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“Every single person who fears deadly wildfires, devastating droughts, and spiralling food shortages is Just Stop Oil.
“The first duty of government is to keep the public safe – but by greenlighting oil and gas drilling, they endanger our survival while corporates and billionaires laugh their way to the bank.
“Every one of us feels alone and powerless in the face of this insanity, but we know there is massive political and public support for our demand.
“So we’re inviting everyone to join us at an online call on 3rd October 2026 – because it’s when we work together that we are powerful and win.”
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