Oxford News
Expert Comment: Could oil price surge accelerate the UK’s shift to renewables?
Dr Laurence Wainwright
Dr Laurence Wainwright, Departmental Lecturer and Course Director, MSc Sustainability, Enterprise and the Environment, said:
The opening months of 2026 have been characterised by unprecedented levels of geo-political-economic turbulence, uncertainty and volatility. The launch of “Operation Epic Fury” on 28 February has had, and will continue to have, profound implications for global energy availability, cost, and security – as well as significant broader economic implications.
For the United Kingdom, the crisis represents an acute threat to an already stuttering and fragile economy. A rise in energy costs adds to the growing list of interrelated challenges facing the country, which include significant low productivity, a heavily constrained national budget, record taxation rates, and a seemingly omnipresent cost of living crisis.
The conflict has also served to reignite the row over North Sea drilling. Proponents argue that the UK should utilise its vast reserves and it is necessary for domestic survival.
Simultaneously, the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade has said that “doubling down on renewables” represents the most prudent way forward to protect against such a shock from ever impacting the UK again.
Research from the Oxford Smith School supports this. Our work has shown that ‘solving’ the elusive wicked problem of the energy trilemma – affordability, security/independence, and environmental sustainability – can only be attained through countries completely weaning off fossil fuels. In the immediate term however, there is little the Government can do, and already stretched low- and middle-income earners will take a significant hit. Given the Government’s current economic woes and record national debt, Whitehall has only limited options to assist the public with energy prices.
This energy shock, although painful, may serve as the tipping point that dramatically increases the pace of global adoption of renewables. History has shown us – perhaps sadly – that it is often the case that sticks, rather than carrots, are what cause humans to change their ways. The current situation may serve as just that stick.
Professor Cameron Hepburn
Professor Cameron Hepburn, Battcock Professor of Environmental Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, and Director of the Economics of Sustainability Programme, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, said:
The surge in oil prices past $110 a barrel following the Iran conflict is the most significant energy shock since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the echoes of 1973 are hard to ignore — petrol station queues are already forming across the UK and the government has had to reassure the public there is no fuel shortage – which there isn’t.
Drivers will feel the impact at the pump within ten to fourteen days, but the 1.5 million households reliant on heating oil are being hit right now, with costs jumping by hundreds of pounds in a matter of days.
For the roughly 33 million households on standard energy tariffs, the Ofgem price cap shields them until July, but wholesale gas prices have already surged and that protection simply delays the pain by a few months.
It might seem really worrying that the UK’s gas storage currently holds barely a day and a half of supply — down from twelve days a few years ago. Actually, though, we currently have reliable supplies through Norwegian pipelines, even if we are now paying the highest wholesale gas prices in Europe for the privilege.
Unlike 1973, we now have a partial insurance policy: wind and solar generate roughly a third of our electricity and are completely insulated from events in the Gulf. The tragedy is that consumers don’t yet benefit from that cheap homegrown power, because our electricity market still prices all power off the most expensive gas plant running at any given moment — meaning even EV drivers will end up being partly hit by a fossil fuel shock that moves into higher power prices.
Every pound invested in renewables, insulation grid infrastructure and other clean technologies permanently reduces our exposure to exactly this kind of geopolitical crisis. The energy transition is no longer just climate policy — it is the most credible energy security strategy the UK has.
Dr Anupama Sen
Dr Anupama Sen, Head of Policy Engagement, Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, said:
In 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a Smith School analysis found that had the UK moved away from importing Russian oil and gas after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, it would have saved ~£22 bn.
The evolving 2026 energy crisis simply reiterates this argument – if we were less reliant on oil and gas today, we would be in a much better economic position.
In the longer-term, the best way to keep energy bills low for UK households would be to expand our portfolio of generation options: renewables and batteries can go a long way in shielding electricity prices form geopolitical energy shocks. Alongside this, the UK should continue its focus on electrifying heating and insulating homes, as focusing on reducing exposure to gas volatility will keep bills down even when prices spike, as households will need less of it to stay warm and secure.
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Thames Valley Police has launched an investigation after a pigeon was killed in a wildlife crime incident in Plover Drive, Oxford, at around 6.50pm on August 24.
The force said that two teenage boys used a catapult to knock a pigeon from a tree before the bird was attacked by three smaller terrier-type dogs that were with them.
READ MORE: Oxford probe launched after ‘shocking assault’ of 60-year-old by teen boys
Descriptions of the two boys have been released with the first described as wearing a black sleeveless vest, dark-coloured bottoms, black trainers with white soles.
In addition he had a black-and-white flat-peaked cap worn backwards and was believed to have been carrying a catapult.
The second was reportedly wearing a light-coloured T-shirt and blue jeans, with brown, medium-length hair.
He was also seen carrying an unidentified item.
A spokesperson for the police said: “We are keen to hear from anyone who witnessed this incident or who may recognise those involved from the descriptions above.
READ MORE: Police race to ‘fear for welfare’ incident by Oxford BMW factory
“We would also like to hear from anyone with dashcam footage from the Plover Drive area between 6.30pm and 7pm on 24 August that may assist our investigation.
“Wildlife crime has a real impact on our communities, and we take reports of offences against wild animals and birds seriously.
” If you have any information, please contact the force on 101 or report online, quoting reference 43260448136.”
Following the incident in North Way, Barton on Monday, August 17, Thames Valley Police said it wanted the public’s help to locate Oxford local Arthur McDonagh.
The force warned the public not to approach the 33-year-old, but instead to call the police if they see him.
READ MORE: Probe launched as Oxford woman ‘assaulted’ in Vauxhall Astra car
On Tuesday, August 18, a spokesperson said: “Thames Valley Police is appealing for the public’s help to locate Arthur McDonagh, aged 33, from Oxford.
“He is wanted in connection with a serious assault that happened in North Way, Barton, yesterday (August 17).
“Arthur is known to frequent the Garsington area.
“If you have any information about his whereabouts call 101 or make a report online, quoting reference 43260426989.
“If you see him, do not approach him, but instead call 999.”
Well over a week on, the police has revealed that Mr McDonagh remains at large.
The spokesperson said today (Saturday, August 29): “Arthur McDonagh remains outstanding; our enquiries are ongoing to locate him.”
During the incident emergency services were called to Barton Village Road at about 11.10am.
The force closed North Way to the junction with Edgecombe Road while officers carried out their enquiries.
A damaged white pickup truck was left in the middle of the street, surrounded by broken glass and with what appeared to be blood splattered on the rear right-hand side.
The white pickup truck could be seen behind the police cordon.
There were multiple reports of different weapons being used during the assault, but Thames Valley Police confirmed that they do not believe an axe, bat or machete were used in the attack.
But police declined to say what weapon they do believe was used in the assault.
The force confirmed a man was taken to hospital for treatment, and that he was in a stable condition, and they thanked the local community for their support.
Following the incident, Mike Rowley, Labour councillor for Barton and Sandhills, said his thoughts were with the victim and praised local officers for their response.
READ MORE: Public told ‘DO NOT APPROACH’ amid Oxford attack manhunt
He said: “My thoughts are with the victim as the incident sounds horrible.
“I am in touch with the police, but I’m not expecting any updates yet as their priority is finding the offender and making sure there aren’t any further offences.”
Appeals for public help in finding individuals by the police can relate to suspects, witnesses or others who may have vital information in relation to the incident.
They do not mean the person is to blame nor do they imply guilt.
The alert comes ahead of the September ’76 number plate change.
New research from temporary car insurance provider Tempcover reveals that one in five drivers would not check if they were insured before test-driving a vehicle in a private sale.
With more than 4.3 million private used car sales each year in the UK, Tempcover analysis warns that uninsured test drives could top 2 million annually.
The warning follows SMMT Q2 data showing that the UK used car market recorded more than 2 million transactions, including a 67% rise in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales.
Test drives of used electric vehicles are becoming more thorough, with 43% of drivers saying they drive EVs further and for longer than petrol or diesel models, averaging an extra 2.8 miles per test.
This is often to assess battery health and charging capabilities, but driving without insurance remains illegal and carries serious penalties.
What is the punishment for being caught test-driving without correct insurance?
Motorists caught test-driving without valid cover face a £300 fine and six penalty points, or, if prosecuted in court, an unlimited fine, six to eight points, and a criminal record.
Many drivers are unaware that ‘Driving Other Cars’ (DOC) clauses in standard policies rarely cover private test drives.
Tempcover also found that 43% of motorists did not know they could purchase temporary insurance for as little as an hour to stay protected during a test drive.
This marks a sharp rise from an estimated 1.3 million during the September ’75 plate change and 1.5 million during the March ’26 plate change.
Jake Lambert, a temporary car insurance expert at Tempcover, said: “Second-hand electric cars are changing hands at an increasing pace, and buyers looking to grab an EV bargain during the September ’76 number plate change are likely to take longer, diagnostic test drives – covering more miles and driving to public charging points to vet battery performance before handing over their hard earned money.
“These extended test drives make proper insurance coverage even more crucial.
“Private sellers have no legal obligation to insure a buyer, and relying on outdated policy assumptions without verifying cover leaves drivers at risk of taking to the road without valid insurance.
“Securing fully comprehensive, temporary insurance is a simple fix that protects buyers from severe out-of-pocket costs if an accident happens.”
How does the September ’76 number plate change impact this?
UK number plates change twice a year in March and September for newly-registered vehicles, which are associated with different numbers.
Recommended reading:
March releases use the last two digits of the year, so 2026 becomes 26, while September releases add 50 to the same figure, turning 2026 into 76.
There is usually a seasonal rush when the new plates comes in which is typically driven by sellers looking to avoid the immediate depreciation that comes with an older registration.
As a result, this period may see an increased period of test drive taking place for private car sales.
Have you checked to see if you have the correct insurance to test-drive a car? Let us know in the comments.
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