Oxford News
Expert Comment: Could oil price surge accelerate the UK’s shift to renewables?
Dr Laurence Wainwright
Dr Laurence Wainwright, Departmental Lecturer and Course Director, MSc Sustainability, Enterprise and the Environment, said:
The opening months of 2026 have been characterised by unprecedented levels of geo-political-economic turbulence, uncertainty and volatility. The launch of “Operation Epic Fury” on 28 February has had, and will continue to have, profound implications for global energy availability, cost, and security – as well as significant broader economic implications.
For the United Kingdom, the crisis represents an acute threat to an already stuttering and fragile economy. A rise in energy costs adds to the growing list of interrelated challenges facing the country, which include significant low productivity, a heavily constrained national budget, record taxation rates, and a seemingly omnipresent cost of living crisis.
The conflict has also served to reignite the row over North Sea drilling. Proponents argue that the UK should utilise its vast reserves and it is necessary for domestic survival.
Simultaneously, the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade has said that “doubling down on renewables” represents the most prudent way forward to protect against such a shock from ever impacting the UK again.
Research from the Oxford Smith School supports this. Our work has shown that ‘solving’ the elusive wicked problem of the energy trilemma – affordability, security/independence, and environmental sustainability – can only be attained through countries completely weaning off fossil fuels. In the immediate term however, there is little the Government can do, and already stretched low- and middle-income earners will take a significant hit. Given the Government’s current economic woes and record national debt, Whitehall has only limited options to assist the public with energy prices.
This energy shock, although painful, may serve as the tipping point that dramatically increases the pace of global adoption of renewables. History has shown us – perhaps sadly – that it is often the case that sticks, rather than carrots, are what cause humans to change their ways. The current situation may serve as just that stick.
Professor Cameron Hepburn
Professor Cameron Hepburn, Battcock Professor of Environmental Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, and Director of the Economics of Sustainability Programme, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, said:
The surge in oil prices past $110 a barrel following the Iran conflict is the most significant energy shock since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the echoes of 1973 are hard to ignore — petrol station queues are already forming across the UK and the government has had to reassure the public there is no fuel shortage – which there isn’t.
Drivers will feel the impact at the pump within ten to fourteen days, but the 1.5 million households reliant on heating oil are being hit right now, with costs jumping by hundreds of pounds in a matter of days.
For the roughly 33 million households on standard energy tariffs, the Ofgem price cap shields them until July, but wholesale gas prices have already surged and that protection simply delays the pain by a few months.
It might seem really worrying that the UK’s gas storage currently holds barely a day and a half of supply — down from twelve days a few years ago. Actually, though, we currently have reliable supplies through Norwegian pipelines, even if we are now paying the highest wholesale gas prices in Europe for the privilege.
Unlike 1973, we now have a partial insurance policy: wind and solar generate roughly a third of our electricity and are completely insulated from events in the Gulf. The tragedy is that consumers don’t yet benefit from that cheap homegrown power, because our electricity market still prices all power off the most expensive gas plant running at any given moment — meaning even EV drivers will end up being partly hit by a fossil fuel shock that moves into higher power prices.
Every pound invested in renewables, insulation grid infrastructure and other clean technologies permanently reduces our exposure to exactly this kind of geopolitical crisis. The energy transition is no longer just climate policy — it is the most credible energy security strategy the UK has.
Dr Anupama Sen
Dr Anupama Sen, Head of Policy Engagement, Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, said:
In 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a Smith School analysis found that had the UK moved away from importing Russian oil and gas after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, it would have saved ~£22 bn.
The evolving 2026 energy crisis simply reiterates this argument – if we were less reliant on oil and gas today, we would be in a much better economic position.
In the longer-term, the best way to keep energy bills low for UK households would be to expand our portfolio of generation options: renewables and batteries can go a long way in shielding electricity prices form geopolitical energy shocks. Alongside this, the UK should continue its focus on electrifying heating and insulating homes, as focusing on reducing exposure to gas volatility will keep bills down even when prices spike, as households will need less of it to stay warm and secure.
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Alexandra House of Joy was founded in 2018 by husband and wife, Ian and Rachel Scott-Hunter to build the site on Middle Wretchwick Farm in Bicester.
The centre was Alexandra’s dream and will support and care for young and old adults with profound learning disabilities and their primary care givers.
Rachel said: “This is a legacy to our very brave and inspirational daughter. If we walked away, it would dishonour all that she went through.
“We know first-hand what families like ours are facing – the worry, fear, stress, isolation and loneliness, day and night, year after year.
“Love drives us, but love shouldn’t mean having to struggle without support.”
Alexandra, who was born at St David’s Hospital in Bangor, North Wales, suffered a brain haemorrhage four days after birth. This confined her to a life in a wheelchair where she was totally dependent on others. She died of sepsis in 2019.
From 1991, when Alexandra entered adult social care, the couple say they saw “how fragile and unfair the system could be” and now warn of a “shocking and disgraceful” erosion of adult social care.
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“We were heard, marginalised, excluded, ignored and utterly disrespected,” the co-founder said, “No-one was doing anything so we had to bring change.
“As services have disappeared, many are facing exhaustion, isolation and heartbreak alone.
“Families caring for people with profound learning disabilities in our community are being left behind.”
Despite this, the couple has raised £982,434 over the last eight years and are now only £17,565 off their £1m goal which will secure the start of the three-phase building project.
When the doors finally open, Rachel hopes her daughter’s legacy will be one “of love, courage and quiet strength.”
She said: “Our centre will offer care, hope and relief for people. People with profound learning disabilities will be valued and family caregivers will know they are not alone.”
Phase one, which aims to break the ground by early 2027, will see the construction of a four-bed purpose-built centre to support up to 25 families a month.
Phase two would add more bedrooms, extra activity rooms and a hydrotherapy pool, while phase three would see the creation of a small hospice service with two beds, a family lounge and relatives’ apartment.
The charity has been supported by local businesses and organisations, including Bicester Motion, Bicester Village and Bicester Tesco, who have hosted fundraising events over the years.
A fundraising tandem skydive will take place at Brackley Airfield in July and MP Calum Miller, the charity’s ambassador, will be joining supporters to climb Snowdon in September 2026 to raise funds.
St Hugh’s School, a co-educational day school and boarding school for pupils aged three to 13, is located at Carswell Manor, and is about to launch a new senior school.
The independent school will welcome its first cohort of Year 9 pupils in September 2026, with the first group of GCSE pupils completing their studies in 2029.
READ MORE: UK private school prepares for expansion
The opening of the senior school follows the purchase of nearly 20 acres of land next to the existing site.
The newly acquired land will play a central role in the school’s strategic vision for the next five to 10 years.
To coincide with the launch of the senior school, free bus travel is being trialled for pupils.
The school said in a statement: “We are thrilled to share our new initiative for all our families in September 2026.
“Through our existing bus routes, and an additional Oxford route, we are offering our families a free bus service to and from school for pupils in Years 1-9.
“We are hoping this offering will support our families both financially and logistically, whilst delivering on our pledge to be more sustainable as a school and to reduce congestion within the local area.”
The school added buses can be booked for just morning or afternoon each day.
It said: “In addition, we will offer a free breakfast club for pupils in Year 1 and above who are unable to use our current offering of bus routes.
“Supper will also be available for all Year 3 pupils free of charge. This is an addition to our existing free wrap-around care provision before and after school for children from reception upwards.
“We hope that this initiative will offer families greater flexibility to ensure we support them logistically on a day-to-day basis.”
Both the free transport and meal provision will run as a trial for the 2026-2027 academic year, during which the school will assess enthusiasm, viability, and long-term sustainability.
If uptake remains strong, the school hopes to expand the offer further in future.
To ensure fair access for as many as possible, and to prevent block bookings for unused seats or meals, St Hugh’s will introduce a small charge to cover costs in cases where journeys or meals are missed at short notice.
St Hugh’s has been working closely with architects to shape a comprehensive development plan, including a new dining room, enhanced teaching spaces, and expanded facilities for the pre-prep, prep, and the new senior school which formally opens in June this year.
An open morning for prospective parents and pupils was held on May 8, and places at the senior school are now being advertised.
The party group has a new leadership team in place after it held its seats at the May 7 polls, but failed to make new gains in the authority.
Dr Chris Smowton, who led the group for four years and into the 2026 vote, has been replaced by Katherine Miles, who represents Summertown.
She said: “I am delighted to take the baton from Chris as we head into a critical period of time of change in our city.
“The local government re-organisation will reshape the way the city is run – we need to ensure Oxford has a strong voice.
“I will work to seek a fairer and more sustainable open economy in Oxford and tackle the dual climate and nature emergencies.”
Ms Miles was first elected in 2021 and has lived in Oxford for more than a decade.
Her background is in international development, women’s financial inclusion and climate risk insurance.
She added: “Thank you to Chris Smowton for his effective leadership of the group over the last four years. I look forward to continuing to work together.”
Dr Smowton, who represents Headington, will now be deputy leader of the group.
He said: “This is a vital year for Oxford as we go into a generational change in local government structure.
“I will work to hold the Labour minority to account and fight to ensure we deliver affordable housing, genuinely safe roads and a cleaner, greener city.”
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