Oxford News
Expert Comment: Could oil price surge accelerate the UK’s shift to renewables?
Dr Laurence Wainwright
Dr Laurence Wainwright, Departmental Lecturer and Course Director, MSc Sustainability, Enterprise and the Environment, said:
The opening months of 2026 have been characterised by unprecedented levels of geo-political-economic turbulence, uncertainty and volatility. The launch of “Operation Epic Fury” on 28 February has had, and will continue to have, profound implications for global energy availability, cost, and security – as well as significant broader economic implications.
For the United Kingdom, the crisis represents an acute threat to an already stuttering and fragile economy. A rise in energy costs adds to the growing list of interrelated challenges facing the country, which include significant low productivity, a heavily constrained national budget, record taxation rates, and a seemingly omnipresent cost of living crisis.
The conflict has also served to reignite the row over North Sea drilling. Proponents argue that the UK should utilise its vast reserves and it is necessary for domestic survival.
Simultaneously, the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade has said that “doubling down on renewables” represents the most prudent way forward to protect against such a shock from ever impacting the UK again.
Research from the Oxford Smith School supports this. Our work has shown that ‘solving’ the elusive wicked problem of the energy trilemma – affordability, security/independence, and environmental sustainability – can only be attained through countries completely weaning off fossil fuels. In the immediate term however, there is little the Government can do, and already stretched low- and middle-income earners will take a significant hit. Given the Government’s current economic woes and record national debt, Whitehall has only limited options to assist the public with energy prices.
This energy shock, although painful, may serve as the tipping point that dramatically increases the pace of global adoption of renewables. History has shown us – perhaps sadly – that it is often the case that sticks, rather than carrots, are what cause humans to change their ways. The current situation may serve as just that stick.
Professor Cameron Hepburn
Professor Cameron Hepburn, Battcock Professor of Environmental Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, and Director of the Economics of Sustainability Programme, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, said:
The surge in oil prices past $110 a barrel following the Iran conflict is the most significant energy shock since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the echoes of 1973 are hard to ignore — petrol station queues are already forming across the UK and the government has had to reassure the public there is no fuel shortage – which there isn’t.
Drivers will feel the impact at the pump within ten to fourteen days, but the 1.5 million households reliant on heating oil are being hit right now, with costs jumping by hundreds of pounds in a matter of days.
For the roughly 33 million households on standard energy tariffs, the Ofgem price cap shields them until July, but wholesale gas prices have already surged and that protection simply delays the pain by a few months.
It might seem really worrying that the UK’s gas storage currently holds barely a day and a half of supply — down from twelve days a few years ago. Actually, though, we currently have reliable supplies through Norwegian pipelines, even if we are now paying the highest wholesale gas prices in Europe for the privilege.
Unlike 1973, we now have a partial insurance policy: wind and solar generate roughly a third of our electricity and are completely insulated from events in the Gulf. The tragedy is that consumers don’t yet benefit from that cheap homegrown power, because our electricity market still prices all power off the most expensive gas plant running at any given moment — meaning even EV drivers will end up being partly hit by a fossil fuel shock that moves into higher power prices.
Every pound invested in renewables, insulation grid infrastructure and other clean technologies permanently reduces our exposure to exactly this kind of geopolitical crisis. The energy transition is no longer just climate policy — it is the most credible energy security strategy the UK has.
Dr Anupama Sen
Dr Anupama Sen, Head of Policy Engagement, Smith School of Enterprise & Environment, said:
In 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a Smith School analysis found that had the UK moved away from importing Russian oil and gas after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, it would have saved ~£22 bn.
The evolving 2026 energy crisis simply reiterates this argument – if we were less reliant on oil and gas today, we would be in a much better economic position.
In the longer-term, the best way to keep energy bills low for UK households would be to expand our portfolio of generation options: renewables and batteries can go a long way in shielding electricity prices form geopolitical energy shocks. Alongside this, the UK should continue its focus on electrifying heating and insulating homes, as focusing on reducing exposure to gas volatility will keep bills down even when prices spike, as households will need less of it to stay warm and secure.
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On Wednesday, September 2, it was the Concours judging and private viewings to dominate the agenda for the day.
Twelve Concours classes were held across almost a century of motoring, including The Golden Age of Motoring, 100 Years of Carrrozzeria Touring, La Dolce Vita, 60 Years of the Lamborghini Miura and Passione Ferrari.
Two new classes also made their debut for 2026, Rare Breeds of the Digital Age and Hypercar Heaven, which recognise the growing importance of contemporary performance cars within the international collector market.
Judging will take place across Wednesday and Thursday, with the show field bringing together a 70-strong collection of classics, supercars and hypercars from around the world.
Some of the cars include Aa Maserati 8C 3000, Alfa Romeo Sprint Berlinetta, a one-off Maserati 3500GT Spyder Prototipo by Vignale, a very early Porsche 356 Split Window Coupé, Aston Martin DB3S, Lamborghini Miura P400S, Bizzarrini 5300GT, Ferrari 250 GT Series 1 Cabriolet, Bugatti EB110 Prototype, Aston Martin Valiant Prototype and the extraordinary Bugatti Bolide, one of just 40 produced worldwide.
Helen Pike has decided to step down as Master of Magdalen College School at the end of the 2026/27 academic year, the school in east Oxford announced in March.
MCS is one of the top performing schools in the country, ranking in the top 20 independent secondary schools in The Sunday Times Parent Power Schools Guide 2026.
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The new academic year will start next week, with Ms Pike preparing for one more year in charge before she hands over to her successor, who will take over in September 2027.
The first female Master at MCS, Ms Pike guided the board of governors to one of the most significant decisions in the school’s history, to become fully co-educational from 2027.
While there has been a co-educational sixth form at the school for 15 years, the school last month announced it will become fully co-educational over the coming decade.
Ms Pike said earlier: “I love MCS, and it is a perennial privilege to lead this remarkable school.
“Being Master of MCS is a brilliant job, and I am declaring my intention early in order to give MCS the very best opportunity to find the right Master for September 2027. I shall continue to do all in my power to further the fortunes of this wonderful school until then.
“I look forward to a new phase in my own professional life, one that builds on all that I have enjoyed and achieved in my career during the past 30 years.
“Having encouraged many cohorts of pupils to take sensible risks and to do something creative and different when the time feels right, I am doing just that.”
During Ms Pike’s tenure, MCS has been recognised as a Top 20 Independent School and South East School of the Year by the Sunday Times and won Independent School of the Year for Social Mobility.
Thanking her in his letter to the school community, chair of governors, Bob Price, said earlier this year: “Helen is an outstanding leader and will go with our sincere gratitude and warm thanks for her exceptional headship.
“She will leave the school in excellent shape for her successor.”
Recruitment for a replacement for Ms Pike is now under way.
Last month, Ms Pike congratulated pupils on their “outstanding success” in this year’s A-Level exams, after more than a quarter of pupils (43) achieved three A*s or more and 25 secured all A*s.
In total, 39 pupils from the 2026 cohort are heading to Oxbridge, while 22 have secured places to study medicine.
As part of the school’s expansion plans, MCS is preparing to build a new Science, Library and Partnerships building.
A spokeswoman said the new building will offer an exciting opportunity to reimagine the senior school site as staff look ahead to full co-education.
She added earlier: “With a vision to create a sector-leading science building in the centre of Oxford, the development will enable us to support an ambitious and forward-looking science curriculum, expanding to the emerging and rapidly advancing areas of robotics, AI and Big Data.”
Holding banners which read ‘For f**k’s sake, just stop oil’, the demonstrators took to the road in Parliament Square at noon today (Wednesday, September 2).
This was as Andy Burnham faced his first Prime Minister’s Questions, and many of the protestors glued themselves to the road.
The group demanded that the UK government stop approving all further oil and gas developments, and sign a Fossil Fuel Treaty to stop oil and gas extraction.
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Just Stop Oil say that the police are expected to arrest all those blocking the road, and that one lane has been left free of glued-on action takers to permit access for emergency vehicles.
Andy Burnham is due to make a decision on whether to allow more drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea.
Reverend James Crote, a Baptist Minister and grandfather from Chesterton near Bicester, said: “Today is my grandson’s first birthday. I have to take action for the sake of his future.
The 69-year-old added: “The government has been dilly-dallying about whether to say yes or no to the Rosebank oil field but, if we want a future for our children, there is no choice – it has to say ‘no’.
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“I am here as a Christian Minister because the Church has to speak out and demand that the government stops approving further oil and gas developments now. It’s time for us all to say ‘For God’s sake, Just Stop Oil’.”
Data from the Met Office indicates that 2026 was the hottest summer in UK recorded history, beating 2025, which was the previous hottest summer on record.
2026 was also one of the driest summers on record, delivering record-low food harvests.
Climbing temperatures have triggered wildfires across the country, and national fire chiefs said the wildfire risk facing the UK is “like nothing we have seen before”.
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Taking action, grandmother Victoria Ann Lynch-Staunton from Leamington Spa, said: “What is happening is beyond a tragedy.”
The 71-year-old added: “I beg everyone to join Just Stop Oil or governments will continue to prioritise endless growth and corporate profit over billions of lives – yours and your children.
“Wake up and smell the coffin. It is the responsibility of all of us to act now!”
A Just Stop Oil spokesperson said today: “We are all Just Stop Oil.
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“Every single person who fears deadly wildfires, devastating droughts, and spiralling food shortages is Just Stop Oil.
“The first duty of government is to keep the public safe – but by greenlighting oil and gas drilling, they endanger our survival while corporates and billionaires laugh their way to the bank.
“Every one of us feels alone and powerless in the face of this insanity, but we know there is massive political and public support for our demand.
“So we’re inviting everyone to join us at an online call on 3rd October 2026 – because it’s when we work together that we are powerful and win.”
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