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Grand National stats: Can trends find 2026 winner of Aintree race?

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Official rating

Every horse in training is giving an official rating by the handicapper based on the level that they run to. Fourteen of the past 16 winners have been rated 146+, with 13 of those between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett were rated 159 and 163 going into the past two editions so a higher mark may be a positive.

Runs since September

In the first seven runnings this decade, five winners had run six times since September, with the others having five and three outings.

That trend has settled down in the past 10 years, with the average being four runs. Noble Yeats had seven before his 2022 run, while five had been in three races.

No winner in the past 25 editions has run fewer than three times that season.

Trainer location

An English trainer last won the race in 2015, with an Irish trainer winning seven of the nine since. Scot Lucinda Russell has had two winners, though she has no runners this year.

Breeding

Of the 24 hours to win the race this century, 18 were Irish-bred, four were French-bred and two British-bred.

Finish last time out

Of the past 25 winners, 11 have finished in the top two of their previous run.

Six of the past eight winners also won their previous race, though Noble Yeats was ninth and Minella Times pulled up.

Four of the six winners before that had finished in the top four too, so the trends suggest form is a factor.

Career falls

Every winner this century except Auroras Encore had two or fewer falls in their career prior to the race.

In the past decade, Minella Times is the only horse to have fallen in their career and won the Grand National.

Won over three miles or more

Twenty one of the 24 different horses to have won this century have all registered at least one career win over three or more miles before winning the National.

Eighteen of them have won more than two races over that trip, though two of the past five aren’t included in that group.

Days since last run

The average break between runs for the past 10 winners is just over 41 days, with a range of 24-84 days.

If you take out the two highest and lowest, you’re left with a gap of 36 days.



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Pete Hegseth removes all women and some Black service members from navy promotion list | Pete Hegseth

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The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, stripped nine navy officers including women and Black service members from a promotion list last month, according to a person familiar with the matter, resulting in an all-male, overwhelmingly white slate of 22 advancing as nominees to become one-star admirals.

Hegseth’s unusual intervention violated promotion rules designed to be merit-based and apolitical, the New York Times said on Tuesday, and extended the Trump administration’s push to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the military.

The original promotion list included three women and two Black officers in addition to the two who remained, the newspaper said.

A navy source said that officials in the service had been “very confident” with those on the promotion list, including the officers whom Hegseth removed. He said Hegseth did not explain to the navy why he removed the officers from the list.

One government source familiar with matter said Hegseth has “his favorite MOS’s [military occupational specialities], and then gender and race. He went through the list and scrubbed a few names. It was felt loud and clear.”

The Pentagon disputed that Hegseth blocked promotions based on race or gender. “As we’ve said before, military promotions are given to those who have earned them. The department will never consider the color of a service member’s skin or their gender as a factor in promotions,” said Sean Parnell, the chief Pentagon spokesperson. “Under President Trump and Secretary Hegseth, meritocracy reigns supreme at the war department.”

The move has direct parallels with Hegseth’s reported interposition in a similar army promotion list in March, in which he is said to have directed the army secretary, Dan Driscoll, to remove two women and two Black officers from a nomination slate to become one-star generals.

Hegseth has previously railed against diversity and so-called “woke” in the armed services.

“For too long, we’ve promoted too many uniform leaders for the wrong reasons – based on their race, based on gender quotas, based on historic so-called firsts,” he told a keynote meeting of military commanders in Virginia in September. “The sooner we have the right people, the sooner we can advance the right policies.”

Hegseth’s involvement in the promotions list is unusual, according to a former military official. “It’s supposed to an up-and-down vote from the defense secretary. He continuing to meddle on an individual basis,” he said. “He’s stripping autonomy from the service secretaries.”

One name still on the latest navy list published on 22 May is Capt Sean Barbabella, Donald Trump’s White House physician, who last week declared the almost 80-year-old president to be in “excellent health”, despite photographs showing him at times with swollen ankles, bruised hands and a blotchy neck.

Hegseth stepped in to overrule a board of navy admirals that had drawn up the list, the Times said, also removing four white officers. The outlet noted that the list as published, which must be confirmed by the US Senate, bears little relation to the makeup of the force the nominees will lead.

The report cites a 2024 government profile of the navy’s active-service composition, which revealed that more than 21% are women, and that almost 40% identify with racial minority groups.

The Guardian reported in March that Hegseth, who styles himself the “secretary of war”, acted soon after his confirmation as defense secretary last year to block promotions or redeploy senior military officers, 60% of them women or Black.

He reassigned V Adm Yvette Davids, the first woman to lead the US naval academy, and dismissed another navy vice-admiral, Shoshana Chatfield, as the US military representative to the Nato military committee.

Hegseth also dismissed Adm Lisa Franchetti as chief of naval operations.

Coast guard commandant Linda Fagan, who served for 37 years and was the longest serving active duty marine safety officer, was dismissed on 20 January 2025, the first day of Trump’s second term of office, four days before Hegseth’s narrow Senate confirmation.

Overall, the Times said, Hegseth has fired or sidelined nearly three dozen senior military officers.

The actions extend the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape the US military, which have included attempts to ban women from combat roles and blocking transgender troops from serving.

A federal appeals court in Washington DC on Monday delivered a setback to the anti-diversity push by ruling that the government acted illegally by moving to dismiss transgender service members. That case is expected to reach the supreme court.



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Scottish government found in contempt over Salmond files

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The Court of Session said the Scottish government repeatedly missed dates to disclose information requested by FOI.



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How the murder of Henry Nowak is being exploited by the far right – The Latest | UK news

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There has been violent disorder on the streets of Southampton sparked by the murder of student Henry Nowak. Politicians and community leaders have called for calm amid fears that Nowak’s death will be used to whip up racial resentment against minority ethnic Britons. Lucy Hough speaks to community affairs correspondent Aamna Mohdin.



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