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Oil rises and Asian stocks fall amid worries over ‘fragile’ ceasefire deal in Middle East – business live | Business
Introduction: Oil prices rise and Asian stocks fall amid worries over uncertain ceasefire deal
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire deal has triggered a rise in oil prices this morning.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose by 2.1% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude rose by almost 3% to $97.23 a barrel. Yesterday, Brent crude dropped by more than 10% after initial news of the ceasefire emerged.
Meanwhile Asian stocks have been choppy overnight: Japan’s Nikkei has slipped by 0.7% and the South Korean Kospi has dropped sharply by 2%. Both countries are highly exposed to the conflict in the Middle East as they rely on oil and gas supplies from the region.
In China, the CSI300 index fell 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also slipped 0.2%.
It comes as investors worry about the ‘fragile’ nature of the US-Iran ceasefire deal announced yesterday, as Israel continues its assaults on Lebanon and the impasse in the strait of Hormuz continues.
Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, says this morning:
Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night. For instance, both the UAE and Kuwait said yesterday that their air defences had been intercepting drones from Iran. And on the Iranian side, their Parliament’s Speaker Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated.
Moreover, the IRGC warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israel’s strikes against Lebanon didn’t stop immediately, whilst the Fars news agency said that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was halted because of Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon. So collectively, that’s raised concern about how durable this ceasefire will prove, particularly with it only being a two-week truce.”
Reid notes that US president Donald Trump posted on social media a couple of hours ago that US forces would “remain in place, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”, and that if not military action would be “stronger than anyone has ever seen before”, and that the US military was “looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest”.
He also criticised NATO in a separate post overnight, saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them”, and called on people to “remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”. So that raised concerns about a repeat of mid-January, when Trump’s call for the US to take Greenland and the threat of European tariffs drove a risk-off move in global markets.
The agenda
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8.30am BST: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the European parliament committee on economic and monetary affairs
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9.30am BST: Bank of England credit conditions survey for Q1 2026
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1.30pm BST: US gross domestic product, initial jobless claims, PCE inflation measure and wholesales inventories
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3pm BST: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva expected to deliver a speech on the outlook for the global economy and outline key policy priorities for member countries
Key events
Israel instructs Energean to reopen natural gas platform
Perhaps a sign that Israel expects the ceasefire to hold: the Israeli energy ministry has instructed Energean to reopen operations at its Karish natural gas platform, Reuters has reported.
The gas platform, which is off Israel’s Mediterranean coast, has been shut down for more than a month since the outbreak of war with Iran.
Mohit Kumar, of the broker Jefferies, says the “fragile” nature of the ceasefire deal has started to show cracks after Iran accused the US and Israel of breaking the terms due to attacks on Lebanon – but that the agreement could still hold.
Despite the fragile nature of the ceasefire, we believe that the truce will hold. Not because we believe that a solution has been found but because of the MAD (mutually assured destruction) principle.
…US and Israel have realised that without a solution to cheap drone interceptors and someway to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, it’s a war that cannot be won. IRGC will be struggling with a destroyed economy which can pave the path for an uprising later. Hence, need time to consolidate their power particularly after a number of senior leaders have been killed. Given the interest of both parties, we believe that an uneasy truce will hold.
But as argued yesterday, it’s an unstable equilibrium. The biggest losers of this arrangement have been the Gulf countries who would face an emboldened Iran. Iran’s ideology to export the Islamic Revolution would not bode well for the other gulf countries. Economically too, they have taken a setback with the path of projecting Middle East as an investment hub potentially delayed by a few years.
Hence, we do not see oil going back to pre war levels. We also think that a geopolitical risk premium would need to be priced in different asset classes.
From a market perspective, we have been in the low risk mode but with a positive bias. The positive view remains beyond the war, but we are not ready to sound all clear. Hence for investors who are long risk, we would recommend using yesterdays rally to take some profits which still keeping a positive risk bias. Market positioning is still small short to neutral and hence we would definitely not want to be short this market.
Here’s Trump’s full post on his social media platform, Truth Social:
All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!
Introduction: Oil prices rise and Asian stocks fall amid worries over uncertain ceasefire deal
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire deal has triggered a rise in oil prices this morning.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose by 2.1% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude rose by almost 3% to $97.23 a barrel. Yesterday, Brent crude dropped by more than 10% after initial news of the ceasefire emerged.
Meanwhile Asian stocks have been choppy overnight: Japan’s Nikkei has slipped by 0.7% and the South Korean Kospi has dropped sharply by 2%. Both countries are highly exposed to the conflict in the Middle East as they rely on oil and gas supplies from the region.
In China, the CSI300 index fell 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also slipped 0.2%.
It comes as investors worry about the ‘fragile’ nature of the US-Iran ceasefire deal announced yesterday, as Israel continues its assaults on Lebanon and the impasse in the strait of Hormuz continues.
Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, says this morning:
Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night. For instance, both the UAE and Kuwait said yesterday that their air defences had been intercepting drones from Iran. And on the Iranian side, their Parliament’s Speaker Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated.
Moreover, the IRGC warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israel’s strikes against Lebanon didn’t stop immediately, whilst the Fars news agency said that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was halted because of Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon. So collectively, that’s raised concern about how durable this ceasefire will prove, particularly with it only being a two-week truce.”
Reid notes that US president Donald Trump posted on social media a couple of hours ago that US forces would “remain in place, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”, and that if not military action would be “stronger than anyone has ever seen before”, and that the US military was “looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest”.
He also criticised NATO in a separate post overnight, saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them”, and called on people to “remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”. So that raised concerns about a repeat of mid-January, when Trump’s call for the US to take Greenland and the threat of European tariffs drove a risk-off move in global markets.
The agenda
-
8.30am BST: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the European parliament committee on economic and monetary affairs
-
9.30am BST: Bank of England credit conditions survey for Q1 2026
-
1.30pm BST: US gross domestic product, initial jobless claims, PCE inflation measure and wholesales inventories
-
3pm BST: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva expected to deliver a speech on the outlook for the global economy and outline key policy priorities for member countries
UK News
Backlash against ‘short-termist’ UK plans to weaken EV sales targets | Electric, hybrid and low-emission cars
The UK government’s plans to further weaken electric car targets have provoked a furious backlash from the charging industry and the electric car brand Polestar, which would lose out from the changes.
The Labour government is expected to dilute rules known as the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. Government sources have said it will reduce a target for pure electric cars from 80% of all sales by 2030 to 50%.
The Labour government had already weakened the mandate last year by introducing loopholes – known as “flexibilities” – that allow the sale of more plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine an engine with a small battery.
The slower shift to electric cars would be a huge blow in particular to the charging industry, which is investing on the basis of future demand.
Greg Jackson, the chief executive of Octopus Energy, said the government had chosen “short-termist incumbent lobbying instead of the long-term future of industry”. As well as being the UK’s largest retail energy provider, Octopus is also a large player in electric vehicle leasing and charging.
“The fossil fuel market is shrinking globally and our best hope is to speed up development of electric vehicles, not go the other way,” Jackson said. “This hesitation undermines the credibility of government commitments which were supposed to give certainty to investors.”
Vicky Read, the chief executive of the industry lobby group ChargeUK, said weakening the target was an “astonishing” proposal which could cost tens of thousands of jobs in the longer term.
“The charging sector has ploughed billions into putting chargers in the ground on the basis of this policy, ahead of profitability,” Read said. “This government said it would not flip-flop like the previous did. To move the goalposts again would be exactly that – an act of self-harm denying the country a forward facing, economically prosperous industry leaving us behind the rest of the world.”
The proposal would probably mean millions more cars with petrol engines on British roads and significantly higher carbon emissions. Plug-in hybrids produce about 135g of carbon dioxide per kilometre driven on average, compared with about 166g from petrol cars, according to T&E, a thinktank monitoring transport and environmental issues. Electric cars produce zero carbon directly and have much lower associated emissions over their lifetime.
The government’s decision followed heavy lobbying by car manufacturers as well as the Unite union, which represents many workers in British automotive factories. Unite’s general secretary, Sharon Graham, described the proposed changes as “a huge victory” and said it would “protect the jobs of UK automotive workers”.
However, Anna Krajinska, the UK director at T&E, argued that allowing more plug-in hybrid sales would ultimately harm the UK industry by leaving the door open to Chinese manufacturers. China’s Chery, owner of brands including Omoda and Jaecoo, and BYD, the world’s biggest electric carmaker, have sold about 30,000 cars each in the UK this year, many of them PHEVs.
“Slowing down targets and increasing hybrid sales will destroy the UK’s automotive sector,” Krajinska said. “Only a rapid transition to battery electrics can secure the future of UK manufacturing. For that to happen targets have to remain unchanged and [the business secretary] Peter Kyle needs to deliver a coherent and robust industrial policy to transition the sector and jobs.”
A weaker ZEV mandate would also represent a blow to manufacturers focusing on electric cars. Matt Galvin, the UK managing director of the Chinese-owned electric brand Polestar, said: “Weakening these targets allows car manufacturers to decelerate development of EVs at a time when they should be doing exactly the opposite and accelerating their investment and product offering.”
UK News
Arrest over push of woman into bus's path in 2017
A 44-year-old man is in custody over the incident where a woman appeared to be shoved into the path of a bus.
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UK News
World Cup 2026: Fifa urged to remove official over hand gesture; teams hit back at Ceferin; Iran arrive in US – live | World Cup 2026
Key events
More now on the hand gesture story mentioned earlier. Fifa’s discrimination monitor at the World Cup has called for a video assistant referee to be removed for appearing to make a hand gesture resembling a white supremacist sign.
“Advice from our experts is that the gesture used clearly resembles an upside down ‘OK’ hand symbol used as a ‘white power’ symbol in global far-right circles,” the Fare network, a longtime partner of Fifa and Uefa, the European football governing body, to monitor racist and discriminatory chants, flags and symbols at international games, said in a statement. “Clearly this official should have no further role to play in this World Cup,” Fare said in a statement, describing the gesture as “neo-Nazi.”
Kick-off times are more friendly for the UK viewer today. Spain v Cape Verdi at 5pm and Belgium v Egypt at 8pm. But we need to think globally so that’s 3pm for Cape Verdi viewers cheering on their team while in Egypt it’ll be 10pm for those tuning in to see if Mo Salah can inspire his team to victory over the Belgians.
The biggest test for the UK viewer today is Iran v New Zealand at 2am BST. In Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch that’ll be 1pm while in Tehran, Mashhad and Karaj it’s a less palatable 4.30am.
Thanks Sarah. As for World Cup songs, this one from the German 1990 squad always sticks in my mind. While England took the genre to a new level with New Order and John Barnes’ rap, the Germans very much went down the traditional route. A singer that looks like a cross between Chris de Burgh and Thomas Muller, Karl-Heinz Riedle on maracas, one or two playing air saxophone. Pleasingly dreadful.
I am off to grab some food and so I leave you in the hands of Dave Tindall who will take you through the next few hours of news. I’ll be back later on.
From requests of your favourite football songs to another on if you live in a World Cup host city. We want to hear from you if you have football teams in town from the atmosphere to how it is affecting business. Use the form on this page to get in touch:
We have another shout for the best/worst football song and I can’t decide which side of the forward slash this one belongs on. Graeme Neill said:
Timely given yesterday evening’s match. Japan’s Cornelius and his utterly bonkers Ball in Kick Off is worth a listen:
France will kick-off their tournament against Senegal on Tuesday and to say they have attacking quality is an understatement. The team boasts players like the captain, Kylian Mbappé, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Cherki but they all have a role to play, according to Adrien Rabiot. Read more:

Jacob Steinberg
The cat is well truly out of the bag. Nobody expected the conversation to be quite so revealing when Jude Bellingham and Morgan Rogers sat on the Lions’ Den sofa last week. Content controlled by the Football Association was an unlikely place for Bellingham to drop a few truth bombs, but the England midfielder was not minded to hold back when it was time to discuss his experience at Euro 2024.
“It didn’t feel like there was any kind of hierarchy,” the 22-year-old said. “I think at the Euros we got some things a little bit wrong off the pitch. I don’t feel like the group connected as well as it could have – for a number of reasons.”
Read more:
Fifa urged to remove official over hand gesture
Fifa have been urged to remove a video review official who appeared to make a white supremacy hand gesture during Germany’s 7-1 win over Curaçao.
The governing body’s discrimination monitor at the World Cup called for Shaun Evans from Australia to be removed from the tournament.
The gesture was also spotted by several fans who posted about it on social media.
“Advice from our experts is that the gesture used clearly resembles an upside down ‘OK’ hand symbol used as a ‘white power’ symbol in global far-right circles,” the Fare network said.
Fifa are yet to comment on the situation.
There have been some sights at the World Cup but Scotland fans taking over Fenway Park is one that has been one of the most surreal. The Boston Red Sox lost 6-4 to the Texas Rangers but Scotland fans stayed long after the game was over singing “super John McGinn” and during the match there was a rendition of “yes sir, I can boogie”.
Anil Patel has emailed:
This absolute banger wasn’t attached to any particular team but is one of the best themes out there.
This is a great shout and a fun fact for you about it, it was initially written to be a baseball anthem. Some baseball news coming your way soon…
If anyone is unsure of the song I referenced, here it is:
Football songs can be iconic or occasionally cringey, that one with Dizzee Rascal and James Cordon comes to mind for the latter for me. What are your best/worst anthems for a major tournament? Get in touch and let me know.
England may have banished some penalty shootout demons in the last few major tournaments but the question of who would step up to take one is one that will always be asked. One such player who said he would take on is Eberechi Eze, despite missing one in the Champions League final. Have a read of what he said:
There will be many questions raised at this World Cup. Who will win the trophy? Who will claim the Golden Boot? What will the next standout moment be? But there is another question that has been answered in the following piece: Where have the WAGs gone?

Matt Hughes
Fox will not face any punishment from Fifa for breaking the governing body’s advertising rules during the opening game of the World Cup between Mexico and South Africa last week.
The US broadcaster broke Fifa’s strict guidelines for showing commercials during hydration breaks on the first occasion they were in operation by returning to the live action 10 seconds after play had resumed during the second half at Mexico City Stadium.
Fifa’s tournament regulations, which were given to all rights holders two months ago, state that while broadcasters can show ads during hydration breaks they must return to the match 30 seconds before play resumes.
Read more:
Sometimes a team needs a player to have some standout performances to jump start a tournament and Jordan Henderson believes that player for England will be Jude Bellingham. Henderson said:
I’m sure he will have a big impact for us in this tournament. I can remember five years ago I gave him his first cap, it was away at Middlesbrough. How much he’s grown, as a player and as a person since then, is incredible really. I had a good idea when I first saw him playing and training, and the way he was.
I think everybody forgets how young he is. We do rondos and it’s the youngest in, and there’s people that I think should be going in before him, but he’s always one of the first in the middle to go in. It just reminds us how young he is. I honestly couldn’t speak highly enough of him.
Read more:
The travel at this tournament has grabbed more than a few headlines so far and there is another one pertaining to Australia. The Socceroos beat Turkey 2-0 in their opening game with their second against one of the co-hosts, the US, on Friday. Their focus will be on that game but recovery is also high on their list. Read more here:
There have already been so many historic moments at this tournament, including Scotland’s first World Cup win in 36 years. Mo Salah is hoping to replicate the moment and end Egypt’s long wait of 92 years for a victory at the tournament. The team have their first game against Belgium today to try and make history:
Spain, who start their campaign today against Cabo Verde, are among the favourites to win the World Cup after their European Championship success in 2024. Here’s a piece on how the team are embracing the tag and how they are using one trophy-winning tournament to potentially lift another:
Uruguay will take on Saudia Arabia later today but their travel was delayed amid challenges across the tournament.
The team’s initial flight from Mexico was cancelled with their replacment delayed. The Uruguay captain, José María Giménez, described the situation as “difficult”.
Read more:
There are more games to be played today with another four in store. The details for those kick-off times and match-ups are below but do get in touch to let me know what your World Cup routine is. Are you having to get up early to watch the games? Or are you in a time zone where you can get home from work and watch back-to-back football until it’s time for bed? Email me and let me know, here are today’s fixtures:
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Spain v Cabo Verde (5pm BST, 12pm ET, 9am PT)
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Belgium v Egypt (8pm BST, 3pm ET, 12pm PT)
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Saudi Arabia v Uruguay (11pm BST, 6pm ET, 3pm PT)
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Iran v New Zealand (2am BST, 9pm ET, 6pm PT)
So what happened in the matches yesterday? Four took place with the biggest win coming in Germany’s 7-1 dismantling of Curaçao. The island nation will be disappointed with the result but they also made history as they scored their first-ever World Cup goal. That came from Livano Comenencia, who plays his club football for Zürich. Have a read of that report and others for all the latest action on pitch:
Čeferin criticised for ‘uninteresting’ comment
UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin was criticised by multiple nations from Asia, Africa and the Caribbean after reportedly saying the expanded World Cup creates “uninteresting” matches.
According to Zurnal 24, the boss said at a conference last Monday: “We have a huge number of matches that are completely uninteresting.”
The associations of Cape Verde, Congo, Curaçao, Haiti, Jordan and Uzbekistan released a joint statement, which was in solidarity with the federations of Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia.
It said: “Football does not belong to a select group of nations. Its strength comes from its universality,” the statement said. “For many countries, participation in the FIFA World Cup is not only a sporting achievement. It is a moment that inspires a generation, accelerates football development and creates memories that last a lifetime.”

Ben Fisher
The Iran striker Mehdi Taremi has said the controversy and disruption surrounding their involvement at the World Cup undermines Fifa’s message of peace and conceded he felt the tension before arriving in Los Angeles on the eve of their opener, hours before a peace deal was announced. For the first time since the competition’s inception, a host nation has received a country with which it is at war.
On Sunday Iran flew to LA from Tijuana, Mexico, where they were relocated amid an ongoing row over visas, but are expected to face opposition from Iranians, many of whom believe the national team do not represent the country. Iran has been beset by problems in the buildup to the tournament, with several officials denied entry to the US.
Preamble
Hello and welcome to today’s World Cup news blog where we bring you the latest updates from the global event being hosted across the US, Canada and Mexico.
Any breaking news, team updates or reflections on what has happened so far will be all here for you to feast on, no matter what you are doing with your Monday.
Please do get in touch too, we always like to hear from readers. Potentially on the best underdog story at the World Cup or any quirky predictions you may have for the tournament.
Amongst several stories surrounding the competition today is Iran’s arrival in the US. The team landed on Sunday before they take on New Zealand.
More details on that story will be with you shortly, as well as the reports from the games that took place yesterday to catch up on all the latest action.
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