UK News
Oil price tumbles and stock markets soar on hopes Middle East war will end soon – business live | Business
Introduction: Oil tumbles and markets rally on hopes of Middle East de-escalation
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
After its biggest monthly gain ever, the oil price has dropped sharply on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Brent crude has dropped around 13% since last night, back down to $103 a barrel, as investors welcome signs from Washington DC that the Iran war might end soon.
Yesterday, US president Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks, declaring:
Now we’re finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we’ll do the job. We want to knock out everything they’ve got.
Trump is expected to address the US at 9pm ET tonight (2am BST tomorrow morning).
Asia-Pacific markets have started April in good heart too.
China’s CSI 300 index is up 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei has surged 4.9% and South Korea’s KOSPI has leapt by 9.5%.
That follows gains in New York last night, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 2.5%.
Investors are also cheered by reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”.
Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, says the “more constructive commentary” from both the US and Iranian camps is encouraging traders to move bac into riskier assets:
We saw reports breaking in Asia yesterday from the WSJ that Trump was willing to end the war without taking the Straits of Hormuz. In fact, he encouraged other international peers to take the strait without US involvement. There are different ways to interpret that, both positive and negative, but the market has taken this as a small step towards appeasing and compelling the Iranian camp.
The Iranians have also come out with more constructive rhetoric for risk, signalling the necessary will to end the war. They have outlined their conditions, some of which were already known. But the combination of the narrative, driven through headlines, has certainly seen risk come back into play.
The agenda
-
9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for March
-
9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for March
-
10am BST: eurozone unemployment data
-
10.30am BST: Bank of England releases financial stability report
-
2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI for March
Key events
Chances of two Bank of England rate rises this year fall
City traders are slashing their bets on UK interest rate rises this year, as hope builds that an end to the Iran war might possibly be close.
The money markets are now pricing in around 41 basis points (0.41 percentage points) of increases to UK Bank rate by the end of 2026. That means that two quarter-point rises are no longer fully priced in.
Yesterday, the market was anticipating 66bps of rate rises by Christmas, and last week 75bs (or three quarter-point increases) were fully priced in.
Gold has risen to its highest level in almost two weeks.
After jumping 3.5% yesterday, gold is up another 0.8% today to over $4,700 an ounce.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, says an end to the Iran conflict could prove a double-edged sword for gold:
On one hand, a lasting peace agreement would remove the geopolitical safe haven bid that supported prices in the run-up to the conflict.
On the other hand, it would allow for lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, which would revive expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026. This dynamic, combined with the underlying structural demand from central banks who have been accumulating gold for diversification, means we could still see upside.
European stock markets are set to rally when trading begins in around 30 minutes, reports Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Markets paint an optimistic picture this morning – choosing to believe the optimism from the White House that the war in Iran will be over in a couple of weeks. US President Donald Trump yesterday announced that he saw the war ending within a couple of weeks, and that he would be addressing the nation with further details later today.
This was enough to propel the S&P 500 into a relief rally, up 2.9%, the best day for the market since May last year. Asian markets have continued the optimism early today, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong up nearly 2%, and the Nikkei in Japan jumping 4.56%. European futures are also looking positive, with markets in the UK, France, Germany and Italy set to open up.
UK food inflation forecast tripled to 9%
Ouch! UK food inflation is forecast to hit at least 9% by the end of this year, as the cost of living crisis is reignited by the Iran war.
The Food and Drink Federation has revised its food inflation forecast upwards – triple its previous forecast.
Having previously expected food prices inflation to end the year around 3%, the FDF now fear it will have risen to between 9% and 10%.
They say
This is a fast-moving situation, and our update is based on assumptions that the Straits of Hormuz opens within 2-3 weeks and energy production in the Middle East returns to normal within a year
As one of the UK’s energy intensive and most globally connected sectors, food and drink manufacturing is unusually exposed to these shocks, with cost pressures on multiple fronts hitting the industry at once
As well as the surge in energy costs, food producers also face a spike in the cost of fertilisers.
Last month, the boss of one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies – Yara International – has said global food supplies could be badly damaged this year if the Iran war becomes an extended conflict.
UK hit by ‘awful April’ shower of bill increases
An end to the war in the Middle East, and a drop in energy prices, would be a relief to UK households as we enter Awful August.
UK households face a bill surge this month, in which the annual cost of essentials, including council tax and water, will increase by more than £200.
The price jumps caused by the Iran war will add to that financial hit. More here:
Introduction: Oil tumbles and markets rally on hopes of Middle East de-escalation
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
After its biggest monthly gain ever, the oil price has dropped sharply on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Brent crude has dropped around 13% since last night, back down to $103 a barrel, as investors welcome signs from Washington DC that the Iran war might end soon.
Yesterday, US president Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks, declaring:
Now we’re finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we’ll do the job. We want to knock out everything they’ve got.
Trump is expected to address the US at 9pm ET tonight (2am BST tomorrow morning).
Asia-Pacific markets have started April in good heart too.
China’s CSI 300 index is up 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei has surged 4.9% and South Korea’s KOSPI has leapt by 9.5%.
That follows gains in New York last night, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 2.5%.
Investors are also cheered by reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”.
Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, says the “more constructive commentary” from both the US and Iranian camps is encouraging traders to move bac into riskier assets:
We saw reports breaking in Asia yesterday from the WSJ that Trump was willing to end the war without taking the Straits of Hormuz. In fact, he encouraged other international peers to take the strait without US involvement. There are different ways to interpret that, both positive and negative, but the market has taken this as a small step towards appeasing and compelling the Iranian camp.
The Iranians have also come out with more constructive rhetoric for risk, signalling the necessary will to end the war. They have outlined their conditions, some of which were already known. But the combination of the narrative, driven through headlines, has certainly seen risk come back into play.
The agenda
-
9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for March
-
9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for March
-
10am BST: eurozone unemployment data
-
10.30am BST: Bank of England releases financial stability report
-
2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI for March
UK News
Resident doctors begin longest strike yet as Streeting accuses BMA of hypocrisy over pay – UK politics live | Politics
Wes Streeting says strikes by resident doctors have cost country £3bn over past 3 years as fresh walkout starts
Good morning. Resident doctors in English hospitals started a six-day strike at 7am this morning. Many of them will continue to work, but there will be enough of them joining the strike to have a significant impact on the care hospitals can deliver. It is the 15th resident doctors (who used to be known as junior doctors) have been on stage since they launched a campaign in 2023 to get their pay back to the equivalent level it used to be before austerity kicked in after the financial crash.
This morning Wes Streeting, the health secretary, deployed a new statistic in his PR battle against the BMA, the doctors’ union organised the strikes. He confirmed a figure highlighted in the Daily Mail’s splash saying strikes by resident doctors have now cost the country £3bn.
In an interview with the Today programme, asked if that was an official government figure, Streeting replied:
We think that strikes cost £50m a day. And so that is, an accurate reflection of the cost of these strikes.
But, when it was put to him the BMA is saying that £3bn is about what it would have cost to give the resident doctors the pay rise they are demaning, Streeting would not accept this. He replied:
What is true is that in order to deliver a full pay restoration back to 2008 levels, using the RPI account of inflation, it would cost in the order of £3bn a year.
Let’s then assume that other NHS staff would understandably demand the same. Then that cost would be more like £30bn a year. That is more than the entire cost of the Ministry of Justice’s entire budget for running the criminal justice system.
Now, this goes to the heart of the intransigence of the BMA. Despite being the biggest winner by a country mile of public sector pay increases – since this government came in, 28.9% is what they got from us – within weeks of taking office, they still went out on strike.
Andrew Gregory and Peter Walker have more from what Streeting has been saying about the strike here.
I will post more from Streeting’s broadcast interviews this morning shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
7am: Resident doctors started a six-day strike in England. (Rather, some of them did – in the past, many doctors have chosen to work rather than to join the BMA strike.)
9.15am: John Swinney, SNP leader and Scottish first minister, holds a campaign event focused on fuel prices. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is holding a campaign event focused on pothole policy (at 9.30am), and Russell Findlay, the Scottish Conservative leader, is launching his manifesto (at 2pm).
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Morning: Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, is campaigning in Newcastle.
12.30pm: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, is holding a press conference in Warwickshire.
Afternoon: Military planners from around 35 countries interested in plans to keep the strait of Hormuz open after the Iran war ends meet to discuss options at the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, north-west London.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
Key events
Streeting accuses BMA of hypocrisy, saying it’s giving its staff pay rise well below what resident doctors offered
In his interviews this morning Wes Streeting, the health secretary, accused the BMA of hypocrisy over pay because the organisation is offering its own staff far less than the resident doctors are demanding.
He told BBC Breakfast:
And here’s the real kicker; having rejected this deal because the pay offer apparently wasn’t good enough at 4.9%, the BMA are offering their own staff 2.75% on affordability grounds.
Why does the BMA think they can get away with telling their own staff they only get 2.75% because that’s all they can afford, whilst rejecting a 4.9% offer because that’s all the government can afford.
It seems to me, the BMA aren’t willing to put their hands in their own pockets to pay their own staff, but they’re very happy to try and fleece your viewers, asking them to pay even more in tax than I think this country can afford.
He made the same point in an interview on Today, explaining what the BMA was doing and adding: “There’s a word for that.”
In a separate interview on the Today programme, Jack Fletcher, chair of its resident doctors committee, said that he was not responsible for what the BMA paid its staff and that he supported their right to go on strike.
Wes Streeting says strikes by resident doctors have cost country £3bn over past 3 years as fresh walkout starts
Good morning. Resident doctors in English hospitals started a six-day strike at 7am this morning. Many of them will continue to work, but there will be enough of them joining the strike to have a significant impact on the care hospitals can deliver. It is the 15th resident doctors (who used to be known as junior doctors) have been on stage since they launched a campaign in 2023 to get their pay back to the equivalent level it used to be before austerity kicked in after the financial crash.
This morning Wes Streeting, the health secretary, deployed a new statistic in his PR battle against the BMA, the doctors’ union organised the strikes. He confirmed a figure highlighted in the Daily Mail’s splash saying strikes by resident doctors have now cost the country £3bn.
In an interview with the Today programme, asked if that was an official government figure, Streeting replied:
We think that strikes cost £50m a day. And so that is, an accurate reflection of the cost of these strikes.
But, when it was put to him the BMA is saying that £3bn is about what it would have cost to give the resident doctors the pay rise they are demaning, Streeting would not accept this. He replied:
What is true is that in order to deliver a full pay restoration back to 2008 levels, using the RPI account of inflation, it would cost in the order of £3bn a year.
Let’s then assume that other NHS staff would understandably demand the same. Then that cost would be more like £30bn a year. That is more than the entire cost of the Ministry of Justice’s entire budget for running the criminal justice system.
Now, this goes to the heart of the intransigence of the BMA. Despite being the biggest winner by a country mile of public sector pay increases – since this government came in, 28.9% is what they got from us – within weeks of taking office, they still went out on strike.
Andrew Gregory and Peter Walker have more from what Streeting has been saying about the strike here.
I will post more from Streeting’s broadcast interviews this morning shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
7am: Resident doctors started a six-day strike in England. (Rather, some of them did – in the past, many doctors have chosen to work rather than to join the BMA strike.)
9.15am: John Swinney, SNP leader and Scottish first minister, holds a campaign event focused on fuel prices. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is holding a campaign event focused on pothole policy (at 9.30am), and Russell Findlay, the Scottish Conservative leader, is launching his manifesto (at 2pm).
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Morning: Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, is campaigning in Newcastle.
12.30pm: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, is holding a press conference in Warwickshire.
Afternoon: Military planners from around 35 countries interested in plans to keep the strait of Hormuz open after the Iran war ends meet to discuss options at the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, north-west London.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
He said his goal was to ‘come to London and present a show of change’ through his music.
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Bangladesh is battling its worse measles outbreak in years, with more than 100 children dead amid a rise in unvaccinated infants.
The government, in partnership with the United Nations, has begun conducting an emergency measles-rubella vaccination drive for children across the country, after more than 900 cases were confirmed since March.
Measles is a highly contagious airborne disease causing fever, respiratory symptoms and a characteristic rash and can sometimes have severe or fatal complications, especially in young children.
While vast gains have been made in mass immunisation against measles, there has been a recent resurgence, attributed to falling vaccine rates, with more than 11m cases recorded globally in 2024. There was a fatal outbreak in the UK this year, which killed two people, and states across the US have also been grappling with a deadly spread, with more than 2,000 cases registered in 2025, the worst in three decades.
In Bangladesh, the rise in cases that began in March is the worst the south Asian country has experienced for years. While Bangladesh has a child immunisation programme for measles, the newly elected government said mismanagement by the previous regimes had led to programme gaps in vulnerable areas and a shortage of the vaccine stockpiles. According to the UN, 95% of the population has to be vaccinated in order to stop the disease from spreading.
This month’s emergency drive will focus on children aged six months to five years old in high-risk districts and will then be expanded out across the country.
One-third of those affected are below the age of nine months, which is when they would usually be eligible for a measles vaccine, which experts said showed a concerning gap in the programme.
“This resurgence highlights critical immunity gaps, particularly among zero-dose and under-vaccinated children, while infections among infants under nine months, who are not yet eligible for routine vaccination, are especially alarming,” said Rana Flowers, the representative for Unicef in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s newly appointed health minister, Sardar Mohammed Sakhawat Husain, told parliament on Monday that the political turmoil of Bangladesh over the past two years, after the toppling of prime minister Sheikh Hasina in an uprising in 2024, had led to disrupted vaccine procurement and a failure to conduct the usual measles vaccinations campaigns. The current government only came to power in elections in February.
Authorities are advising parents to go to hospitals whenever someone is suspected to have measles or even just has a high temperature, rather than relying on local pharmacies.
Since the launch of a massive immunisation campaign in 1979, Bangladesh has raised the coverage of fully immunised children from just 2% to 81.6%. However, experts have continued to warn that there are still stark discrepancies in measles vaccine coverage in the country of 170 million people.
In a statement, Unicef said the current measles surge was caused by multiple factors. “Bangladesh has a strong history of high immunisation coverage, but even small disruptions can lead to the gradual accumulation of immunity gaps over time,” said the organisation.
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