UK News

Oil price tumbles and stock markets soar on hopes Middle East war will end soon – business live | Business

Published

3 months ago

April 1, 2026

info@oxinfo.co.uk

Introduction: Oil tumbles and markets rally on hopes of Middle East de-escalation

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

After its biggest monthly gain ever, the oil price has dropped sharply on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.

Brent crude has dropped around 13% since last night, back down to $103 a barrel, as investors welcome signs from Washington DC that the Iran war might end soon.

Yesterday, US president Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks, declaring:

Now we’re finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we’ll do the job. We want to knock out everything they’ve got.

Trump is expected to address the US at 9pm ET tonight (2am BST tomorrow morning).

Asia-Pacific markets have started April in good heart too.

China’s CSI 300 index is up 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei has surged 4.9% and South Korea’s KOSPI has leapt by 9.5%.

That follows gains in New York last night, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 2.5%.

Investors are also cheered by reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran is willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, says the “more constructive commentary” from both the US and Iranian camps is encouraging traders to move bac into riskier assets:

We saw reports breaking in Asia yesterday from the WSJ that Trump was willing to end the war without taking the Straits of Hormuz. In fact, he encouraged other international peers to take the strait without US involvement. There are different ways to interpret that, both positive and negative, but the market has taken this as a small step towards appeasing and compelling the Iranian camp.

The Iranians have also come out with more constructive rhetoric for risk, signalling the necessary will to end the war. They have outlined their conditions, some of which were already known. But the combination of the narrative, driven through headlines, has certainly seen risk come back into play.

The agenda

9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for March
9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for March
10am BST: eurozone unemployment data
10.30am BST: Bank of England releases financial stability report
2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI for March

Key events

Chances of two Bank of England rate rises this year fall

City traders are slashing their bets on UK interest rate rises this year, as hope builds that an end to the Iran war might possibly be close.

The money markets are now pricing in around 41 basis points (0.41 percentage points) of increases to UK Bank rate by the end of 2026. That means that two quarter-point rises are no longer fully priced in.

Yesterday, the market was anticipating 66bps of rate rises by Christmas, and last week 75bs (or three quarter-point increases) were fully priced in.

Gold has risen to its highest level in almost two weeks.

After jumping 3.5% yesterday, gold is up another 0.8% today to over $4,700 an ounce.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, says an end to the Iran conflict could prove a double-edged sword for gold:

On one hand, a lasting peace agreement would remove the geopolitical safe haven bid that supported prices in the run-up to the conflict.

On the other hand, it would allow for lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, which would revive expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026. This dynamic, combined with the underlying structural demand from central banks who have been accumulating gold for diversification, means we could still see upside.

European stock markets are set to rally when trading begins in around 30 minutes, reports Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown:

“Markets paint an optimistic picture this morning – choosing to believe the optimism from the White House that the war in Iran will be over in a couple of weeks. US President Donald Trump yesterday announced that he saw the war ending within a couple of weeks, and that he would be addressing the nation with further details later today.

This was enough to propel the S&P 500 into a relief rally, up 2.9%, the best day for the market since May last year. Asian markets have continued the optimism early today, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong up nearly 2%, and the Nikkei in Japan jumping 4.56%. European futures are also looking positive, with markets in the UK, France, Germany and Italy set to open up.

UK food inflation forecast tripled to 9%

Ouch! UK food inflation is forecast to hit at least 9% by the end of this year, as the cost of living crisis is reignited by the Iran war.

The Food and Drink Federation has revised its food inflation forecast upwards – triple its previous forecast.

Having previously expected food prices inflation to end the year around 3%, the FDF now fear it will have risen to between 9% and 10%.

They say

This is a fast-moving situation, and our update is based on assumptions that the Straits of Hormuz opens within 2-3 weeks and energy production in the Middle East returns to normal within a year

As one of the UK’s energy intensive and most globally connected sectors, food and drink manufacturing is unusually exposed to these shocks, with cost pressures on multiple fronts hitting the industry at once

As well as the surge in energy costs, food producers also face a spike in the cost of fertilisers.

Last month, the boss of one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies – Yara International – has said global food supplies could be badly damaged this year if the Iran war becomes an extended conflict.

UK hit by ‘awful April’ shower of bill increases

An end to the war in the Middle East, and a drop in energy prices, would be a relief to UK households as we enter Awful August.

UK households face a bill surge this month, in which the annual cost of essentials, including council tax and water, will increase by more than £200.

The price jumps caused by the Iran war will add to that financial hit. More here:

Introduction: Oil tumbles and markets rally on hopes of Middle East de-escalation

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

After its biggest monthly gain ever, the oil price has dropped sharply on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.

Brent crude has dropped around 13% since last night, back down to $103 a barrel, as investors welcome signs from Washington DC that the Iran war might end soon.

Yesterday, US president Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks, declaring:

Now we’re finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we’ll do the job. We want to knock out everything they’ve got.

Trump is expected to address the US at 9pm ET tonight (2am BST tomorrow morning).

Asia-Pacific markets have started April in good heart too.

China’s CSI 300 index is up 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei has surged 4.9% and South Korea’s KOSPI has leapt by 9.5%.

That follows gains in New York last night, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 2.5%.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, says the “more constructive commentary” from both the US and Iranian camps is encouraging traders to move bac into riskier assets:

We saw reports breaking in Asia yesterday from the WSJ that Trump was willing to end the war without taking the Straits of Hormuz. In fact, he encouraged other international peers to take the strait without US involvement. There are different ways to interpret that, both positive and negative, but the market has taken this as a small step towards appeasing and compelling the Iranian camp.

The Iranians have also come out with more constructive rhetoric for risk, signalling the necessary will to end the war. They have outlined their conditions, some of which were already known. But the combination of the narrative, driven through headlines, has certainly seen risk come back into play.

The agenda

9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for March
9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for March
10am BST: eurozone unemployment data
10.30am BST: Bank of England releases financial stability report
2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI for March

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UK News

World Cup 2026: Fifa urged to remove official over hand gesture; teams hit back at Ceferin; Iran arrive in US – live | World Cup 2026

Published

53 minutes ago

June 15, 2026

info@oxinfo.co.uk

Key events

More now on the hand gesture story mentioned earlier. Fifa’s discrimination monitor at the World Cup has called for a video assistant referee to be removed for appearing to make a hand gesture resembling a white supremacist sign.

“Advice from our experts is that the gesture used clearly resembles an upside down ‘OK’ hand symbol used as a ‘white power’ symbol in global far-right circles,” the Fare network, a longtime partner of Fifa and Uefa, the European football governing body, to monitor racist and discriminatory chants, flags and symbols at international games, said in a statement. “Clearly this official should have no further role to play in this World Cup,” Fare said in a statement, describing the gesture as “neo-Nazi.”

Kick-off times are more friendly for the UK viewer today. Spain v Cape Verdi at 5pm and Belgium v Egypt at 8pm. But we need to think globally so that’s 3pm for Cape Verdi viewers cheering on their team while in Egypt it’ll be 10pm for those tuning in to see if Mo Salah can inspire his team to victory over the Belgians.

The biggest test for the UK viewer today is Iran v New Zealand at 2am BST. In Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch that’ll be 1pm while in Tehran, Mashhad and Karaj it’s a less palatable 4.30am.

Thanks Sarah. As for World Cup songs, this one from the German 1990 squad always sticks in my mind. While England took the genre to a new level with New Order and John Barnes’ rap, the Germans very much went down the traditional route. A singer that looks like a cross between Chris de Burgh and Thomas Muller, Karl-Heinz Riedle on maracas, one or two playing air saxophone. Pleasingly dreadful.

The Germans’ response to New Order

I am off to grab some food and so I leave you in the hands of Dave Tindall who will take you through the next few hours of news. I’ll be back later on.

From requests of your favourite football songs to another on if you live in a World Cup host city. We want to hear from you if you have football teams in town from the atmosphere to how it is affecting business. Use the form on this page to get in touch:

We have another shout for the best/worst football song and I can’t decide which side of the forward slash this one belongs on. Graeme Neill said:

Timely given yesterday evening’s match. Japan’s Cornelius and his utterly bonkers Ball in Kick Off is worth a listen:

France will kick-off their tournament against Senegal on Tuesday and to say they have attacking quality is an understatement. The team boasts players like the captain, Kylian Mbappé, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Cherki but they all have a role to play, according to Adrien Rabiot. Read more:

Jacob Steinberg

The cat is well truly out of the bag. Nobody expected the conversation to be quite so revealing when Jude Bellingham and Morgan Rogers sat on the Lions’ Den sofa last week. Content controlled by the Football Association was an unlikely place for Bellingham to drop a few truth bombs, but the England midfielder was not minded to hold back when it was time to discuss his experience at Euro 2024.

“It didn’t feel like there was any kind of hierarchy,” the 22-year-old said. “I think at the Euros we got some things a little bit wrong off the pitch. I don’t feel like the group connected as well as it could have – for a number of reasons.”

Fifa urged to remove official over hand gesture

Fifa have been urged to remove a video review official who appeared to make a white supremacy hand gesture during Germany’s 7-1 win over Curaçao.

The governing body’s discrimination monitor at the World Cup called for Shaun Evans from Australia to be removed from the tournament.

The gesture was also spotted by several fans who posted about it on social media.

“Advice from our experts is that the gesture used clearly resembles an upside down ‘OK’ hand symbol used as a ‘white power’ symbol in global far-right circles,” the Fare network said.

Fifa are yet to comment on the situation.

There have been some sights at the World Cup but Scotland fans taking over Fenway Park is one that has been one of the most surreal. The Boston Red Sox lost 6-4 to the Texas Rangers but Scotland fans stayed long after the game was over singing “super John McGinn” and during the match there was a rendition of “yes sir, I can boogie”.

Photograph: Mark Stockwell/AP

Anil Patel has emailed:

This absolute banger wasn’t attached to any particular team but is one of the best themes out there.

This is a great shout and a fun fact for you about it, it was initially written to be a baseball anthem. Some baseball news coming your way soon…

If anyone is unsure of the song I referenced, here it is:

Football songs can be iconic or occasionally cringey, that one with Dizzee Rascal and James Cordon comes to mind for the latter for me. What are your best/worst anthems for a major tournament? Get in touch and let me know.

England may have banished some penalty shootout demons in the last few major tournaments but the question of who would step up to take one is one that will always be asked. One such player who said he would take on is Eberechi Eze, despite missing one in the Champions League final. Have a read of what he said:

There will be many questions raised at this World Cup. Who will win the trophy? Who will claim the Golden Boot? What will the next standout moment be? But there is another question that has been answered in the following piece: Where have the WAGs gone?

Matt Hughes

Fox will not face any punishment from Fifa for breaking the governing body’s advertising rules during the opening game of the World Cup between Mexico and South Africa last week.

The US broadcaster broke Fifa’s strict guidelines for showing commercials during hydration breaks on the first occasion they were in operation by returning to the live action 10 seconds after play had resumed during the second half at Mexico City Stadium.

Fifa’s tournament regulations, which were given to all rights holders two months ago, state that while broadcasters can show ads during hydration breaks they must return to the match 30 seconds before play resumes.

Sometimes a team needs a player to have some standout performances to jump start a tournament and Jordan Henderson believes that player for England will be Jude Bellingham. Henderson said:

I’m sure he will have a big impact for us in this tournament. I can remember five years ago I gave him his first cap, it was away at Middlesbrough. How much he’s grown, as a player and as a person since then, is incredible really. I had a good idea when I first saw him playing and training, and the way he was.

I think everybody forgets how young he is. We do rondos and it’s the youngest in, and there’s people that I think should be going in before him, but he’s always one of the first in the middle to go in. It just reminds us how young he is. I honestly couldn’t speak highly enough of him.

Photograph: Julian Finney/Getty Images

The travel at this tournament has grabbed more than a few headlines so far and there is another one pertaining to Australia. The Socceroos beat Turkey 2-0 in their opening game with their second against one of the co-hosts, the US, on Friday. Their focus will be on that game but recovery is also high on their list. Read more here:

There have already been so many historic moments at this tournament, including Scotland’s first World Cup win in 36 years. Mo Salah is hoping to replicate the moment and end Egypt’s long wait of 92 years for a victory at the tournament. The team have their first game against Belgium today to try and make history:

Spain, who start their campaign today against Cabo Verde, are among the favourites to win the World Cup after their European Championship success in 2024. Here’s a piece on how the team are embracing the tag and how they are using one trophy-winning tournament to potentially lift another:

Uruguay will take on Saudia Arabia later today but their travel was delayed amid challenges across the tournament.

The team’s initial flight from Mexico was cancelled with their replacment delayed. The Uruguay captain, José María Giménez, described the situation as “difficult”.

There are more games to be played today with another four in store. The details for those kick-off times and match-ups are below but do get in touch to let me know what your World Cup routine is. Are you having to get up early to watch the games? Or are you in a time zone where you can get home from work and watch back-to-back football until it’s time for bed? Email me and let me know, here are today’s fixtures:

Spain v Cabo Verde (5pm BST, 12pm ET, 9am PT)
Belgium v Egypt (8pm BST, 3pm ET, 12pm PT)
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay (11pm BST, 6pm ET, 3pm PT)
Iran v New Zealand (2am BST, 9pm ET, 6pm PT)

So what happened in the matches yesterday? Four took place with the biggest win coming in Germany’s 7-1 dismantling of Curaçao. The island nation will be disappointed with the result but they also made history as they scored their first-ever World Cup goal. That came from Livano Comenencia, who plays his club football for Zürich. Have a read of that report and others for all the latest action on pitch:

Čeferin criticised for ‘uninteresting’ comment

UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin was criticised by multiple nations from Asia, Africa and the Caribbean after reportedly saying the expanded World Cup creates “uninteresting” matches.

According to Zurnal 24, the boss said at a conference last Monday: “We have a huge number of matches that are completely uninteresting.”

The associations of Cape Verde, Congo, Curaçao, Haiti, Jordan and Uzbekistan released a joint statement, which was in solidarity with the federations of Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia.

It said: “Football does not belong to a select group of nations. Its strength comes from its universality,” the statement said. “For many countries, participation in the FIFA World Cup is not only a sporting achievement. It is a moment that inspires a generation, accelerates football development and creates memories that last a lifetime.”

Photograph: Toya Sarno Jordan/FIFA/Getty Images

Ben Fisher

The Iran striker Mehdi Taremi has said the controversy and disruption surrounding their involvement at the World Cup undermines Fifa’s message of peace and conceded he felt the tension before arriving in Los Angeles on the eve of their opener, hours before a peace deal was announced. For the first time since the competition’s inception, a host nation has received a country with which it is at war.

On Sunday Iran flew to LA from Tijuana, Mexico, where they were relocated amid an ongoing row over visas, but are expected to face opposition from Iranians, many of whom believe the national team do not represent the country. Iran has been beset by problems in the buildup to the tournament, with several officials denied entry to the US.

Preamble

Hello and welcome to today’s World Cup news blog where we bring you the latest updates from the global event being hosted across the US, Canada and Mexico.

Any breaking news, team updates or reflections on what has happened so far will be all here for you to feast on, no matter what you are doing with your Monday.

Please do get in touch too, we always like to hear from readers. Potentially on the best underdog story at the World Cup or any quirky predictions you may have for the tournament.

Amongst several stories surrounding the competition today is Iran’s arrival in the US. The team landed on Sunday before they take on New Zealand.

More details on that story will be with you shortly, as well as the reports from the games that took place yesterday to catch up on all the latest action.

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Man who suffered 'racially-motivated' attack says he regrets moving to NI

Published

2 hours ago

June 15, 2026

info@oxinfo.co.uk

The man said his home has been targeted three times in the last five months.

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European stock markets hit record high and oil price falls to three-month low after US-Iran peace deal – business live | Business

Published

3 hours ago

June 15, 2026

info@oxinfo.co.uk

European stock markets hit record high

European stock markets have hit a record high at the start of trading, as relief over the US-Iran peace deal ripples across global markets.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has jumped by 0.9% to 639 points, over the previous record high set just before the Iran war started, with shares rising in London, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Mining and travel companies are driving the rally, while oil company shares are sliding.

That follows sharp gains in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, where Japan’s Nikkei surged by 5% on hopes that the strait of Hormuz will reopen within days.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says global equity markets are starting the week firmly on the front foot after President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been reached, adding:

The move has given investors a clear reason to dial back some of the geopolitical risk premium that has hung over markets, especially as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen and oil prices move sharply lower.

Energy prices have been one of the clearest transmission channels from Middle East tensions into inflation, bond yields and equity sentiment, and there is likely to be a concerted effort to get prices down even further once this deal is finalised.

There are still details to be ironed out before markets can fully trust the agreement, but for now the direction of travel is clear: lower oil, calmer nerves and a renewed appetite for risk.

Key events

Peace deal should keep mortgage rates down

Mortgage borrowers can breathe a sigh of relief at the news of a peace deal in Iran, says Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk.

While we are far from being out of the woods yet, a lasting peace deal should dramatically reduce the risk of the Bank of England’s worst-case scenario for inflation and interest rates becoming a reality.

“Under that scenario, Base Rate could have risen to 5.25%, potentially pushing typical rates on new mortgages towards 6.75%. Instead, today’s news means mortgages rates, which have already been slowly falling for several weeks, have likely already passed their peak – at least until the next unwelcome crisis.

“Borrowers can be optimistic but with a word of caution, as inflation and economic data will continue to influence the outlook. However, a lasting peace should remove one of the biggest risks to mortgage costs and may help restore a more stable environment for hard-pressed remortgage borrowers and prospective buyers.”

Even before this morning’s drop in UK bond yields (see earlier post), average mortgage rates have dipped slightly.

Moneyfacts reports:

The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.61%. This is down from 5.62% the previous working day.
The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.58%. This is down from 5.59% the previous working day.

Why it may take months for oil flows to return to normal

Donald Trump excitedly declared: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” last night, but the reality is that it will take some time for oil flows through the strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war levels.

One reason is that many oil tankers are simply in the wrong place, after the long closure of the strait.

Another is that some production and refining facilities have been damaged by the conflict, while others were mothballed after storate facilities filled up to the brim.

A third factor is that insurers could still be wary of the conflict reigniting, and price their cover accordingly.

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, explains:

Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain.

Our current working assumption is that ~80% of energy flows will resume by the end of Q3. Natural gas flows will be slower to return, following the damage to Qatari facilities earlier in the conflict, which according to local officials has put 17% of production offline for two to three years.

US crude drops below $80

US crude oil has dropped to its lowest level since the second week of the Iran war.

The cost of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude has dropped by 6% today to $79.72 per barrel, the first time since 10 March that it has been under $80/barrel.

That could help to pull down US gasoline prices, which climbed after the conflict began, hitting consumer confidence.

UK bond yields fall

Today’s relief rally is also driving up government bond prices, pushing down the cost of borrowing.

The yield (or interest rate) on 10-year UK government debt has dropped by 6.5 basis points (0.065 of a percentage point) to 4.775%.

Two-year bond yields are down 8bps to 4.16%.

Lower bond yields indicate that that the cost of issuing new government debt has fallen, which will be a relief for the UK Treasury after the Iran war drove up borrowing costs.

Copper mining company Antofagasta is now the top riser on the FTSE 100, up almost 8%.

Trader will be concluding that an end to the Iran war will boost the world economy, leading to more demand for raw materials such as copper.

European stock markets hit record high

European stock markets have hit a record high at the start of trading, as relief over the US-Iran peace deal ripples across global markets.

Mining and travel companies are driving the rally, while oil company shares are sliding.

That follows sharp gains in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, where Japan’s Nikkei surged by 5% on hopes that the strait of Hormuz will reopen within days.

The move has given investors a clear reason to dial back some of the geopolitical risk premium that has hung over markets, especially as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen and oil prices move sharply lower.

Energy prices have been one of the clearest transmission channels from Middle East tensions into inflation, bond yields and equity sentiment, and there is likely to be a concerted effort to get prices down even further once this deal is finalised.

There are still details to be ironed out before markets can fully trust the agreement, but for now the direction of travel is clear: lower oil, calmer nerves and a renewed appetite for risk.

BP and Shell’s shares slide

Shares in oil companies are falling, though – BP and Shell are both down 3.7%, as investors anticipate an end to their earnngs boost from the Iran war.

FTSE 100 index hits eight-week high

Boom! Britain’s stock market has hit a near-two month high at the start of trading, as investors welcome the breakthrough between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict.

The FTSE 100 blue-chip share index has jumped by 99 points, or almost 1%, at the start of trading to 10,570 points, its highest level since 21 April.

Engineering firm Rolls-Royce, which makes and services jet engines, is the top riser on the FTSE 100, up 5.5%, followed by British Airways parent company IAG, up 4.8%.

UK house prices dip in June

Gwyn Topham

Two bits of good news for Britons who don’t own their homes have been revealed, with data showing a drop in house prices in June as well as fewer tenants facing rent hikes last month.

Figures from Rightmove showed the average price of property coming on the to market fell by 0.6% or £2,113 to £376,191, the biggest June fall in fourteen years, with prices 0.5% below this time in 2025. The biggest drops were seen in southern England and Wales, and in asking prices for flats rather than houses.

A chart showing monthly house price changes Photograph: Rightmove

The property site said the number of homes for sale was still at historically high levels for summer, making it more of a buyer’s market. Mortgage affordability has also improved slightly this month, with the average two-year fixed rate deal dropping about 0.1 percentage points to 5.07%, it said.

Meanwhile, figures suggest that the introduction of the Renters Right Act may already be seeing results in terms of keeping rents down for tenants.

The new law came into force at the start of May and means landlords can only increase rents for sitting tenants once a year. According to Hamptons monthly lettings index, the number of tenants who saw their rent rise was down 23% from the same month last year. Hamptons said if the rest of the year saw similar change, it would expect only 31% of sitting tenants to face increases, compared to 40%-50% in previous years.

However, the agency warned that rent rises in Scotland, where landlords have been operating under a similar system for longer, exceeded the national average. Sitting tenants who faced rent rises had an average increase of 5.4% in May, but the figure reached 7.7% in Scotland, albeit for a lower absolute rent – £952 – than the Great Britain average of £1375.

Speaking of the ECB, their president Christine Lagarde has been warning that inflation pressures are spreading in the euro area.

In an intervew with broadcaster France Culture, Lagarde warned that high energy prices are starting to feed through to other parts of the economy, saying:

“Indirect effects of inflation, we have absolutely started to see that more or less everywhere in recent weeks.”

The US-Iran agreement is well-timed for the Bank of England, which is due to set UK interest rates on Thursday.

If the strait of Hormuz does reopen, and oil flows return towards pre-war levels, there will be less inflationary pressure – and thus less need for interest rate rises.

The European Central Bank raised its interest rates last week, but this week is the turn of the BoE, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:

Over the past month, the price of oil is down by more than a fifth, and the Brent crude price is now back at levels from early March. This is good news for inflation, which should start tumbling monthly from June, and it could ease concerns about price pressures as we lead up to some major central bank action this week. The decline in the oil price also raises questions about whether the ECB was too hasty in raising rates last week.

European stock markets are on track to jump when trading begins, in just over 20 minutes.

Germany’s DAX share index is up 1.65% in the futures market, Reuters reports, with the UK’s FTSE 100 0.75% higher.

The US dollar is weakening, as investors shift into riskier currencies.

The pound is its highest in over a week, at $1.3438.

Markets rally across Asia

There are strong gains across Asia-Pacific markets today, as investors welcome the deal between the US and Iran.

Japan’s Nikkei share index has leapt by 5%, as has South Korea’s KOSPI, while China’s CSI300 index is 1.9% higher.

Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says:

Whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran.

For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets even after a strong US close on Friday where hopes were raised of a weekend signing

Introduction: Oil falls to three-month low

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

The peace deal agreed between Iran and the US is sending a wave of relief through the markets today.

Oil has tumbled 4%, and markets across the Asia-Pacific region have jumped, as investors anticipate the reopening of the strait of Hormuz.

Although it is unclear exactly what has been agreed – with the final text of their memorandum of understanding unpublished – Donald Trump’s claim that “oil will flow on both ends again for the region, and the world” is pushing down energy prices – a relief for busineses, consumers, politicians and central bankers alike.

Brent crude has fallen as low as $83.04, its lowest since 10 March, after the prime minister of Pakistan announced the US and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.

That still leaves Brent above its pre-war price of $72.48 a barrel, though.

A chart showing the Brent crude oil price Photograph: LSEG

Trump has indicated that the opening of the strait is contingent upon the signing of the peace deal, scheduled for Friday.

Iran’s Mehr state news, though, reported that the agreed memorandum of understanding calls for the reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements” – an indication that Tehran hasn’t surrendered its control of the waterway.

Chris Weston of IG points out that there are still obstacles to overcome:

The probable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz later this week would represent a significant positive development. Markets had increasingly questioned how long inventory draws could offset supply disruptions and whether physical dislocations would begin weighing more heavily on risk assets. The focus now shifts towards understanding what normalisation of logistics could realistically look like, and how quickly shipping volumes can return to pre-conflict levels of 120 to 140 commercial vessels transiting eastbound and westbound each day.

There are still obstacles to overcome. Mines may need to be cleared, and there may be structural damage to refineries and export facilities around the region that will take time to repair and come back to pre-conflict capacity.