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European stock markets hit record high and oil price falls to three-month low after US-Iran peace deal – business live | Business
European stock markets hit record high
European stock markets have hit a record high at the start of trading, as relief over the US-Iran peace deal ripples across global markets.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has jumped by 0.9% to 639 points, over the previous record high set just before the Iran war started, with shares rising in London, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Milan.
Mining and travel companies are driving the rally, while oil company shares are sliding.
That follows sharp gains in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, where Japan’s Nikkei surged by 5% on hopes that the strait of Hormuz will reopen within days.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says global equity markets are starting the week firmly on the front foot after President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been reached, adding:
The move has given investors a clear reason to dial back some of the geopolitical risk premium that has hung over markets, especially as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen and oil prices move sharply lower.
Energy prices have been one of the clearest transmission channels from Middle East tensions into inflation, bond yields and equity sentiment, and there is likely to be a concerted effort to get prices down even further once this deal is finalised.
There are still details to be ironed out before markets can fully trust the agreement, but for now the direction of travel is clear: lower oil, calmer nerves and a renewed appetite for risk.
Key events
Peace deal should keep mortgage rates down
Mortgage borrowers can breathe a sigh of relief at the news of a peace deal in Iran, says Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk.
While we are far from being out of the woods yet, a lasting peace deal should dramatically reduce the risk of the Bank of England’s worst-case scenario for inflation and interest rates becoming a reality.
“Under that scenario, Base Rate could have risen to 5.25%, potentially pushing typical rates on new mortgages towards 6.75%. Instead, today’s news means mortgages rates, which have already been slowly falling for several weeks, have likely already passed their peak – at least until the next unwelcome crisis.
“Borrowers can be optimistic but with a word of caution, as inflation and economic data will continue to influence the outlook. However, a lasting peace should remove one of the biggest risks to mortgage costs and may help restore a more stable environment for hard-pressed remortgage borrowers and prospective buyers.”
Even before this morning’s drop in UK bond yields (see earlier post), average mortgage rates have dipped slightly.
Moneyfacts reports:
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The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.61%. This is down from 5.62% the previous working day.
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The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.58%. This is down from 5.59% the previous working day.
Why it may take months for oil flows to return to normal
Donald Trump excitedly declared: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” last night, but the reality is that it will take some time for oil flows through the strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war levels.
One reason is that many oil tankers are simply in the wrong place, after the long closure of the strait.
Another is that some production and refining facilities have been damaged by the conflict, while others were mothballed after storate facilities filled up to the brim.
A third factor is that insurers could still be wary of the conflict reigniting, and price their cover accordingly.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, explains:
Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain.
Our current working assumption is that ~80% of energy flows will resume by the end of Q3. Natural gas flows will be slower to return, following the damage to Qatari facilities earlier in the conflict, which according to local officials has put 17% of production offline for two to three years.
US crude drops below $80
US crude oil has dropped to its lowest level since the second week of the Iran war.
The cost of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude has dropped by 6% today to $79.72 per barrel, the first time since 10 March that it has been under $80/barrel.
That could help to pull down US gasoline prices, which climbed after the conflict began, hitting consumer confidence.
UK bond yields fall
Today’s relief rally is also driving up government bond prices, pushing down the cost of borrowing.
The yield (or interest rate) on 10-year UK government debt has dropped by 6.5 basis points (0.065 of a percentage point) to 4.775%.
Two-year bond yields are down 8bps to 4.16%.
Lower bond yields indicate that that the cost of issuing new government debt has fallen, which will be a relief for the UK Treasury after the Iran war drove up borrowing costs.
Copper mining company Antofagasta is now the top riser on the FTSE 100, up almost 8%.
Trader will be concluding that an end to the Iran war will boost the world economy, leading to more demand for raw materials such as copper.
European stock markets hit record high
European stock markets have hit a record high at the start of trading, as relief over the US-Iran peace deal ripples across global markets.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has jumped by 0.9% to 639 points, over the previous record high set just before the Iran war started, with shares rising in London, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Milan.
Mining and travel companies are driving the rally, while oil company shares are sliding.
That follows sharp gains in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, where Japan’s Nikkei surged by 5% on hopes that the strait of Hormuz will reopen within days.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says global equity markets are starting the week firmly on the front foot after President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been reached, adding:
The move has given investors a clear reason to dial back some of the geopolitical risk premium that has hung over markets, especially as the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen and oil prices move sharply lower.
Energy prices have been one of the clearest transmission channels from Middle East tensions into inflation, bond yields and equity sentiment, and there is likely to be a concerted effort to get prices down even further once this deal is finalised.
There are still details to be ironed out before markets can fully trust the agreement, but for now the direction of travel is clear: lower oil, calmer nerves and a renewed appetite for risk.
BP and Shell’s shares slide
Shares in oil companies are falling, though – BP and Shell are both down 3.7%, as investors anticipate an end to their earnngs boost from the Iran war.
FTSE 100 index hits eight-week high
Boom! Britain’s stock market has hit a near-two month high at the start of trading, as investors welcome the breakthrough between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict.
The FTSE 100 blue-chip share index has jumped by 99 points, or almost 1%, at the start of trading to 10,570 points, its highest level since 21 April.
Engineering firm Rolls-Royce, which makes and services jet engines, is the top riser on the FTSE 100, up 5.5%, followed by British Airways parent company IAG, up 4.8%.
UK house prices dip in June

Gwyn Topham
Two bits of good news for Britons who don’t own their homes have been revealed, with data showing a drop in house prices in June as well as fewer tenants facing rent hikes last month.
Figures from Rightmove showed the average price of property coming on the to market fell by 0.6% or £2,113 to £376,191, the biggest June fall in fourteen years, with prices 0.5% below this time in 2025. The biggest drops were seen in southern England and Wales, and in asking prices for flats rather than houses.
The property site said the number of homes for sale was still at historically high levels for summer, making it more of a buyer’s market. Mortgage affordability has also improved slightly this month, with the average two-year fixed rate deal dropping about 0.1 percentage points to 5.07%, it said.
Meanwhile, figures suggest that the introduction of the Renters Right Act may already be seeing results in terms of keeping rents down for tenants.
The new law came into force at the start of May and means landlords can only increase rents for sitting tenants once a year. According to Hamptons monthly lettings index, the number of tenants who saw their rent rise was down 23% from the same month last year. Hamptons said if the rest of the year saw similar change, it would expect only 31% of sitting tenants to face increases, compared to 40%-50% in previous years.
However, the agency warned that rent rises in Scotland, where landlords have been operating under a similar system for longer, exceeded the national average. Sitting tenants who faced rent rises had an average increase of 5.4% in May, but the figure reached 7.7% in Scotland, albeit for a lower absolute rent – £952 – than the Great Britain average of £1375.
Speaking of the ECB, their president Christine Lagarde has been warning that inflation pressures are spreading in the euro area.
In an intervew with broadcaster France Culture, Lagarde warned that high energy prices are starting to feed through to other parts of the economy, saying:
“Indirect effects of inflation, we have absolutely started to see that more or less everywhere in recent weeks.”
The US-Iran agreement is well-timed for the Bank of England, which is due to set UK interest rates on Thursday.
If the strait of Hormuz does reopen, and oil flows return towards pre-war levels, there will be less inflationary pressure – and thus less need for interest rate rises.
The European Central Bank raised its interest rates last week, but this week is the turn of the BoE, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:
Over the past month, the price of oil is down by more than a fifth, and the Brent crude price is now back at levels from early March. This is good news for inflation, which should start tumbling monthly from June, and it could ease concerns about price pressures as we lead up to some major central bank action this week. The decline in the oil price also raises questions about whether the ECB was too hasty in raising rates last week.
European stock markets are on track to jump when trading begins, in just over 20 minutes.
Germany’s DAX share index is up 1.65% in the futures market, Reuters reports, with the UK’s FTSE 100 0.75% higher.
The US dollar is weakening, as investors shift into riskier currencies.
The pound is its highest in over a week, at $1.3438.
Markets rally across Asia
There are strong gains across Asia-Pacific markets today, as investors welcome the deal between the US and Iran.
Japan’s Nikkei share index has leapt by 5%, as has South Korea’s KOSPI, while China’s CSI300 index is 1.9% higher.
Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says:
Whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran.
For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets even after a strong US close on Friday where hopes were raised of a weekend signing
Introduction: Oil falls to three-month low
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
The peace deal agreed between Iran and the US is sending a wave of relief through the markets today.
Oil has tumbled 4%, and markets across the Asia-Pacific region have jumped, as investors anticipate the reopening of the strait of Hormuz.
Although it is unclear exactly what has been agreed – with the final text of their memorandum of understanding unpublished – Donald Trump’s claim that “oil will flow on both ends again for the region, and the world” is pushing down energy prices – a relief for busineses, consumers, politicians and central bankers alike.
Brent crude has fallen as low as $83.04, its lowest since 10 March, after the prime minister of Pakistan announced the US and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.
That still leaves Brent above its pre-war price of $72.48 a barrel, though.
Trump has indicated that the opening of the strait is contingent upon the signing of the peace deal, scheduled for Friday.
Iran’s Mehr state news, though, reported that the agreed memorandum of understanding calls for the reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements” – an indication that Tehran hasn’t surrendered its control of the waterway.
Chris Weston of IG points out that there are still obstacles to overcome:
The probable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz later this week would represent a significant positive development. Markets had increasingly questioned how long inventory draws could offset supply disruptions and whether physical dislocations would begin weighing more heavily on risk assets. The focus now shifts towards understanding what normalisation of logistics could realistically look like, and how quickly shipping volumes can return to pre-conflict levels of 120 to 140 commercial vessels transiting eastbound and westbound each day.
There are still obstacles to overcome. Mines may need to be cleared, and there may be structural damage to refineries and export facilities around the region that will take time to repair and come back to pre-conflict capacity.
The agenda
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US-Iran talks in Switzerland abruptly called off, as Israel and Hezbollah trade attacks in Lebanon | US-Israel war on Iran
Talks set to take place on Friday between the US and Iran in Switzerland to implement a peace deal were cancelled as Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces and Israel carried out a wave of airstrikes in south Lebanon which killed at least 18 people.
The talks were set to begin in the tiny Swiss village of Obbürgen on Friday, two days after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that opened a 60-day window to negotiate a permanent understanding over Iran’s nuclear program, while getting oil traffic moving through the strait of Hormuz.
The White House said the US looked forward to “beginning technical talks as soon as possible”, as it announced that JD Vance, who is leading negotiations for the Trump administration, would now not be travelling.
“The logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now the vice-president is not departing tonight,” a White House spokesperson said late on Thursday.
The cancellation of the talks came as Israel and Hezbollah traded their most violent strikes since the ceasefire was established.
Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces near the city of Nabatieh, south Lebanon, with several salvoes of rocket fire late on Thursday after intermittent Israeli shelling throughout the day. Israel responded with a wave of airstrikes on the city and surrounding towns, leaving at least 18 dead and 33 wounded, according to Lebanon’s ministry of health.
Hezbollah said it was targeting Israeli forces which were trying to advance towards the foothills surrounding Nabatieh – a flashpoint which has seen intermittent fighting since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced. Prior to the truce, Israeli forces were advancing towards the southern Lebanese city.
The cancellation of the talks between Iran and the US on Friday came so abruptly, that Vance’s staff and a small pack of journalists had even gathered at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington in anticipation of the trip. Dozens of White House officials, advance staffers and media were already in Switzerland to prepare for Vance’s anticipated arrival.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that he had approved the MOU despite reservations, while at the same time, the United States officially lifted a blockade of Iranian ports.
But before the talks were cancelled, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said that Iranian negotiators needed to see signs of implementation of the interim agreement from the US before the next rounds of peace talks could begin, and that there was no confirmation that its delegation would travel to Geneva.
The cancellation of the talks came after a report from Al-Mayadeen, an Arabic language network that is politically allied with the Iranian-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, that said Tehran was delaying sending its delegation to Switzerland due to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon.
Israel, which was not included in the peace talks and has distanced itself from the US-Iran agreement, has continued its fighting in Lebanon and launched fresh airstrikes early on Friday, accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire, an accusation the armed group has thrown back at Israel.
Hezbollah said on Friday that its fighters destroyed three Israeli tanks in the country’s south and that clashes were “ongoing”. Israel had not confirmed its tanks were hit.
Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East war in March by attacking Israel, in what it said was revenge for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader by the US and Israel. The subsequent Israeli invasion of south Lebanon and bombing campaign has left more than 3,900 people dead in Lebanon. Hezbollah has killed at least 32 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 3 Israeli civilians.
On Thursday, Israel announced what it called its ‘security zone’ in south Lebanon, which comprises hundreds of square miles of Lebanese territory. Lebanese officials have demanded a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, something Iran said is required by the MOU it has agreed with the US.
The MOU calls for the “permanent termination” of the war in Lebanon and for the country’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty” to be ensured. US president Donald Trump has said he expects a complete ceasefire on all fronts.
Israel has so far insisted it will not pull out its troops from south Lebanon, leading to open criticism from Trump and Vance.
On Thursday, Vance said Israel needed to respect the peace process.
“What the president has grown frustrated with at times, is that we seem to be right on the cusp of a major breakthrough in the agreement, and then all of a sudden, there’s a major explosion that goes off in a civilian population centre in Beirut, and a lot of people who have nothing to do with Hezbollah lose their lives,” Vance told reporters, adding that such actions were “not acceptable.”
On Friday, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf, warned against any breach of the agreement, saying “in case of misconduct, breach of treaty and excess of the other side, We have no doubt that decisive respond will be given to the enemy.”
The diplomatic back-and-forth over the planned talks adds to the uncertainty over whether a lasting truce can be found to a regional war that has killed at least 7,000 people, sent energy prices soaring and shaken global markets.
Khamenei on Thursday said Trump had signed the deal “out of desperation” and signalled that upcoming talks would not be easy.
“If the American side wants to be too demanding, we will not accept it,” he said in a written message. The deal gives negotiators 60 days to reach agreement on the status of Iran’s nuclear program unless both sides agree to an extension, and set up a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran and other financial incentives.
On Thursday, US forces lifted their naval blockade of Iranian ports that had prevented ships from sailing to or from the Islamic republic, the US military said, noting that American warships “will remain in the general area”.
Activity was still muted in the strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck for energy shipments that Iran blockaded during the conflict.
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