Oxford News
Bank of England could raise UK interest rates amid conflict
Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, has suggested that the Bank of England may raise rates to guard against rising inflation, particularly if the conflict in the Middle East keeps energy prices elevated.
The Bank of England is expected to announce its latest decision on April 30, with most economists predicting that rates will stay at 3.75 per cent.
This follows a recent rise in inflation, driven largely by higher fuel prices linked to the ongoing conflict between US-Israeli and Iranian forces.
Mr Goodwin said: “We expect the MPC to keep bank rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent, with most committee members seemingly keen to hold policy at its current restrictive level as they gather more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy.
“Nevertheless, we suspect a minority will opt for a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) hike, on the basis that some pre-emptive tightening is a more robust strategy to guard against an inflation outlook where the risks are skewed to the upside.”
Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 3.3 per cent in March, according to the Office for National Statistics.
This rise was fuelled by an 8.7 per cent month-on-month increase in motor fuel prices – the largest jump since June 2022 – as oil production and transport were disrupted by the conflict.
Economic data has also pointed to stronger-than-expected growth, with the UK economy expanding by 0.5 per cent in February, above the forecast of 0.1 per cent.
Retail sales were boosted in March, with motorists buying more in a bid to stock up amid rising prices.
Despite this economic activity, most analysts believe the Bank will hold rates steady for now.
Sandra Horsfield, economist for Investec, said: “We expect the MPC to keep the Bank rate on hold at 3.75 per cent this time, as it did at the March meeting.”
She noted that although the US’s indefinite ceasefire is in place, uncertainty remains high, and the effects are still being felt across the economy.
Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, predicted that the MPC will vote unanimously to hold rates.
However, he warned that if current trends continue, a rate rise could be on the horizon.
He said: “If surveys for May repeat the same pattern, and crucially the ‘dirty’ Middle East ceasefire continues with oil flows disrupted, we think the MPC will be bumped into a hike in June, or perhaps July.”
The Bank’s decision will be announced one day after the US Federal Reserve reveals its own policy decision.
She will compete in the Millicent Fawcett Mile at Iffley Road in Oxford on Bank Holiday Monday, May 4.
Muir will be aiming to break the track record of 4:27.79, set by Sonia O’Sullivan in 2004.
James Davies, Partner and Head of Blake Morgan’s Oxford office, who will be handing out medals on the day said: “We’re delighted to support Bannister Miles, a much-loved event rooted in Oxford’s sporting and community heritage.
“The Bannister family’s contribution to the city goes without saying, and it’s a privilege for our firm to play a small part in an occasion that brings so many people together.
“We’re really looking forward to Bank Holiday Monday and to welcoming runners, especially when it comes to handing out the medals at the finish.”
Muir is the UK national record holder over the mile with a personal best of 4:15.24.
UK Athletics’ Millicent Fawcett Mile is the premier trophy mile race in the country and forms part of the third annual Bannister Miles celebrations.
The event is named in honour of Dame Millicent Fawcett, who led the National Union of Women’s Suffrage Societies and was instrumental in securing women’s voting rights in 1918.
The day will feature a full programme of races, starting at 2.20pm, including junior, senior, steeplechase, and para events.
The elite men’s and women’s miles will begin from 5.45pm.
Spectators can attend free of charge and enjoy food, drink, and other activities throughout the afternoon.
Before the track events begin, more than 1,300 runners will take part in the Bannister Community Mile along the streets of Oxford, including more than 300 children.
This year’s event has proved especially popular with families, and after the first Family Wave sold out, organisers opened a second wave to meet demand.
The Family Waves will be started by Gordon Sanghera, the founder of the Sanghera Foundation, who this year have sponsored the event.
Their support has enabled Bannister Miles to provide free places to local school children.
The route starts at St Aldates from 9am, continues along the High Street, and finishes at Iffley Road.
Runners will collect their medals at the site where, 72 years ago, Sir Roger Bannister became the first person to run a sub-four-minute mile.
Medals will be handed out by partners of longstanding Bannister Miles supporter, local Oxfordshire law firm, Blake Morgan.
Entries for the community mile close at midnight on Friday, May 1.
All children under the age of six can enter free of charge.
That was the latest weekly theme, and club members posted pastoral scenes from across the county on the club’s Facebook page.
There were plenty of pictures of trees, fields, flowers, dogs, birds, and narrowboats on the Thames.
READ MORE: Popular Lazy Sunday event is back for 2026
It was difficult to choose a winner for photo of the week but in the end we selected Mark Guschtscha’s stunning shot of a free-roaming horse on Port Meadow, with the sun on the horizon.
Each week camera club members are given a theme, and then post their photos on the club’s Facebook page.
A selection of images are then chosen to be featured in the Oxford Mail and The Oxford Times and one photo is picked out as the photo of the week.
A new list of themes has recently been selected by club members, and is shown on the club’s Facebook page. The next theme is May Morning.
The steam rail centre next to Didcot Parkway attracts thousands of visitors every year.
Visitors now have an easy way to refill their glasses or bottles with mains water at the touch of a button, thanks to a grant from Didcot Town Council.
READ MORE: Rail enthusiasts enjoy train rides
Last month, Didcot’s mayor from 2025-2026, Jim Loder, was joined by his immediate predecessor, Councillor Andrew Jones, to unveil the new water refill station.
Mr Loder said: “Didcot Town Council is pleased that giving this grant has allowed more people to refill their bottles while visiting the railway centre.”
Ann Middleton, a member of the board of the Great Western Society, which runs the railway centre, said: “Giving easy access refill drinking water containers shows our commitment to reducing our impact on the environment.
“We are very grateful to Didcot Town Council for the grant of £2,000 to install the water station and were honoured to have Jim Loder and Andrew Jones visit to inaugurate it.
“We also acknowledge the assistance of Sustainable Didcot who supported our application.”
During ‘steam’ days at the centre, trains are running and visitors can enjoy unlimited rides, as well as calling in at other attractions, including the museum, engine shed, shop and cafe.
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