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Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes – UK politics live | Politics
Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
Josh Halliday is the Guardian’s North of England editor.
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”
The spokesperson denied reports that Nigel Farage had left Makerfield, saying he had just been on the phone to him and he was still in the constituency.
Separately, a senior Labour source said it did not look like Restore Britain had been able to turnout its vote to the level that some had predicted.
They said Rupert Lowe’s hardline anti-immigration party could “possibly” achieve 7% of the vote but it was very unlikely to be higher than that.
Lowe, who is giving a series of media interviews, is believed to be claiming to have won 10% of the vote.
Key events
SNP concedes Aberdeen South with Scottish Conservatives set to win
The Scottish National party (SNP) has conceded defeat in the formerly safe seat of Aberdeen South in a shock loss to the Scottish Conservatives, Severin Carrell reports.
Reform UK ‘very happy’ to come a strong second in Makerfield, says Sarah Pochin
Sarah Pochin, the Reform UK MP, told GB News a bit earlier that her party would be “very happy” to come a strong second in Makerfield.
That is not technically a concession. But it is not what you say if you think you have a chance of winning.
Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
Josh Halliday is the Guardian’s North of England editor.
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”
The spokesperson denied reports that Nigel Farage had left Makerfield, saying he had just been on the phone to him and he was still in the constituency.
Separately, a senior Labour source said it did not look like Restore Britain had been able to turnout its vote to the level that some had predicted.
They said Rupert Lowe’s hardline anti-immigration party could “possibly” achieve 7% of the vote but it was very unlikely to be higher than that.
Lowe, who is giving a series of media interviews, is believed to be claiming to have won 10% of the vote.
The SNP have conceded defeat in Aberdeen South with a senior source saying it is the “Tories’ night”, but pledging to “win it back in 2029”, the Press Association reports.
Turnout in Aberdeen South 31.4% – down almost 30 points from general election
And here is the turnout from the Aberdeen South byelection. It was was 31.36% – down from 57.9% at the 2024 general election.
According to the BBC’s James Cook, in Aberdeen South “both sides seem pretty certain that the Tories have won this seat.”
Cook says:
There are lots of glum Scottish National Party faces at the Aberdeen South count and plenty of Conservative smiles.
The SNP candidate, Richard Thomson, looks particularly disconsolate.
If victory for the Conservative candidate, Douglas Lumsden, is confirmed, it will be a boost for the party’s UK leader, Kemi Badenoch who visited Aberdeen South three times, campaigning hard on a promise to support the flagging oil and gas industry, which is based here.
Turnout in Makerfield 58.75% – six points up on general election
We have the turnout figure for Makerfield now. It was turnout is 58.75% – up from 52.5% at the general election.
There were 45,510 votes cast.
Nandy says Labour ‘cautiously optimistic’ about Makerfield, and Burnham beat expectations pulling back Reform voters
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary and MP for Wigan, the constituency next door to Makerfield, has told Sky News that Labour is “cautiously optimistic” about winning the byelection.
She said:
We’re cautiously optimistic. We always knew this would be a hard fight, but we are definitely seeing that Andy Burnham is able to pull some of our voters back from Reform in a way that just seven weeks ago at the local elections we would not thought was possible. We lost every ward in Makerfield to Reform at the local elections just seven short weeks ago and not be a small amount – by thousands of votes …
Whatever the result here tonight, the lesson is that we can actually change people’s minds, we can bring people back to us, we can defeat some of the division and anger that has been on display in this constituency in recent weeks.
Sometimes you can read too much into pictures, but the smile on Nandy’s face suggests “cautiously optimistic” might be a bit of an understatement.
Neither Labour or Reform camps were giving much away as counting got underway at the Edge convention centre in Wigan. A Reform spokesperson said it’s close while a senior Burnham aide said it was too early to tell, Josh Halliday and Hannah Al-Othman report.
Away from the official lines, Burnham supporters had been increasingly confident of victory and one of his team has just told reporters they were “really really pleased” with the campaign.
The Burnham aide said his team had knocked every single door in constituency in a week and a half and gone to every one seven times across the five week contest.
He said Burnham appeared to have a “significant lead” among women, in part no doubt due to the offensive remarks about women posted by Reform UK candidate Rob Kenyon in recent years.
And he said it was not clear yet how well Restore Britain would fare. Polls predicted the hardline rightwing party would win about 7% of the vote, which could be enough to split the rightwing vote in favour of Burnham.
The Makerfield turnout is reportedly very high. Sky News has said it could be 60%, and the BBC has said it could be between 60% and 65%. At the general election it was just 52.5%.
Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s lead elections expert, said that the last time byelection turnout was higher than at the proceeding general election was at the Glasgow Hillhead byelection in 1982. But he also said that if the turnout ended up 11 percentage points higher than at the general election, this would be the first time that had happened since the Torrington byelection in 1958. That was a win for the Liberal candidate, Mark Bonham Carter, in a seat that had previously been held by a National Liberal/Conservative.
SNP reportedly worried they could lose Aberdeen South to Tories
The Scottish Conservatives are optimistic about their chances of winning Aberdeen South, the BBC is reporting. Tom Gordon from the Scottish Daily Mail is hearing the same thing. Paul Hutcheon from the Daily Record says the SNP, who are defending the seat, are “anxious”.
Severin Carrell described the contest in Aberdeen South in this article earlier this week.
Kemi Badenoch has said, if her party wins this byelection, it will be a vote for more oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
On the BBC’s election programme, Jess Phillips, the former safeguarding minister, said her ideal outcome from Makerfield would be for Andy Burnham to win and for Keir Starmer to be given the chance to make a “dignified” exit. She said she did not want to see “chaos”, with lots of ministers resigning.
Phillips resigned as a minister last month saying she wanted Starmer to quit.
Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin defends video urging England team to ‘keep winning’ to stop domestic violence escalating
Sarah Pochin, the Reform UK MP, is at the Makerfield count on behalf of her party tonight and she has had to take questions about this video she posted on social media earlier.
In it she says:
England won the football last night.
And thank god they did because, on the occasions that England lose their football matches, the incidents of domestic violence go through the roof.
So, boys. Keep winning.
Asked about this on Sky News, Pochin stressed her record as a magistrate dealing with domestic violence and defended the point she was making – that this is a link between teams losing, and increased incidents of domestic violence.
But she did not seem to grasp that people are criticising her for not explicitly condemning the abusers, and instead suggesting it was somehow the England football team’s responsibility to prevent women being attacked.
Thangam Debbonaire, the Labour peer, was being interviewed at the same time and she told Pochin that in her remarks she “did not put responsibility on the men who do it”.
Council officials in Makerfield say they expect the result around 3am, my colleague Josh Halliday, who’s at the count, tells me.
Here are some more pictures from the count venue.
The BBC said it has “no future projects” with Cain planned as it pulls his BBC Three documentary series Into the Danger Zone
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Key events
31 min: Penalty to Canada!
Buchanan gets behind the defence and is bundled over by Homam Ahmed. He is booked. It might have been a red card because he wasn’t trying to play the ball, but there’s also an argument that it wasn’t a foul.
Canada are on course for their first World Cup win – and with it, almost certainly, a place in the knockout stage. Tajon Buchanan’s low shot from distance was blocked, with the ball spinning towards Jonathan David 12 yarsd from goal. He reacted beautifully to judge the flight of the ball and then snap a volley past Abumada at the near post. Ordinarily you’d criticise a keeper for being beaten at the near post but that was so well struck by David.
GOAL! Canada 2-0 Qatar (David 29)
Canada are in the process of making history!
24 min Time for a hydration break. And did you know that water is a healthy and cheap choice to keep you hydrated, but other drinks can also count towards your fluid intake. We also get some fluids from the foods we eat.
Not getting enough fluids can lead to dehydration. Dehydration means your body loses more fluids than you take in. If it’s not treated, it can get worse and become a serious problem.
Also, a 30-second advert during these breaks is reportedly worth hundreds of thousands to Fox.
23 min “Wales didn’t just “make it to the knockouts” in 1958,” says Matt Dony, who should know because he was there. “They were probably one John Charles injury away from eliminating Brazil. After being kicked around the park by Hungary in the previous game, Charles was unfit to face Brazil. Even Pele has since said that, had Charles played, Wales would likely have won. Still, there was always 2022. And at this rate, we’ll have another crack at World Cup glory in 2086…”
John Charles was a giant of a player, but I still think Brazil would have won 1-0 in the counterfactual quarter-final.
21 min Ali Ahmed’s free-kick from the right is headed wide by Cornelius. It was no sort of chance, with loads of players jumping for the ball at the same time. One of them, Qatar centre-half Boualem Khoukhi, has stayed down holding his face. I think Cornelius accidentally headed him on the side of the face after making contact with the ball.
19 min Most of Canada’s best attacks have come down the right through Johnston and Buchanan. They win another corner on that side, but nothing comes of it this time.
Edmilson Jr. tried to dribble out of trouble but was pressed by David and conceded a corner. When Ali Ahmed’s corner was half cleared, Johnston scurried to the byline on the right and clipped a good cross towards the unmarked David 12 yards out. His stinging shot was spilled by Abunada and Larin gobbled up the rebound. It’s second goal of the tournament, and he’s only played about half an hour.
GOAL! Canada 1-0 Qatar (Larin 16)
Check the decibel levels: Cyle Larin has put Canada in front!
13 min It’s been a bright start to the game. Canada are dominating possession, as expected, but Qatar look sharp and purposeful on the break.
9 min Cornelius is booked for a foul on the lively Akram Afif.
8 min Zach Neeley’s email begins with the oldest opening line in the book.
Speaking of the 1958 group stage, England drew 0-0 with Brazil, which was the first scoreless draw in World Cup history. Lucky sods back then didn’t know how good they had it. Not bad for England against the first team to win outside of their own continent (which I believed held up till 2010) and didn’t give up a goal until the semi-finals. Wales and Northern Ireland made it to the knock outs while England didn’t after losing a tiebreakeragainst the Soviet Union (no goal difference, 2nd and 3rd played each other if on equal points).
Northern Ireland also needed a playoff to get through, which meant the quarter-final against France was their third game in five days. No wonder they were plugged 4-0.
7 min Ali Ahmed’s corner from the right is headed away, but he collects the loose ball and curls a good cross beyond the far post. The unmarked David meets it with a technically excellent volley that is pushed away by Abunada, diving to his right. Lovely effort, though Abunada would expect to save that 39 times out of 40.
4 min Canada appeal for a penalty – for anything – when Laryea is bundled over on the edge of the area. The referee doesn’t think it was a foul, in or outside the box.
3 min “I found myself in Paris for the Croatia game in 2018, with some Japanese colleagues who seemed somewhat confused by my total lack of interest in conversation once the game started,” writes Tom Hopkins. “I did, however, find myself sat next to a lovely Croatian couple and we were sympathetic to each other as fortunes ebbed and flowed.
“In the fullness of time, actually quite a happy memory. At the time, not so much. Kane should have passed to Sterling.
It’s sometimes forgotten that, though Croatia were undoubtedly the better team, England could have put them away before half-time. I was in Perth for work, so the match started at 2am I think. I wasn’t exactly the poster boy for productivity the following day. Well, the same day; you know what I mean.
1 min A quarter-chance for Qatar after 41 seconds. Akram Arif’s dummy allows Homam Ahmed to surge into space on the left and curl an inviting cross beyond the far post. It arrives at a slightly awkward height for Edmilson Jr, who can’t quite adjust his body in time and slices a volley well wide. Lovely move, though.
1 min Peep peep! Canada kick off from left to right as we watch.
“Afternoon Rob from Ottawa (our sleepy capital),” writes Eddy Nason. “There’s even a big screen showing this game at my daughter’s school BBQ so people here must be into this! Go Canada!”
Jesse Marsch’s pre-match thoughts
We feel that Cyle [Larin] is a good match-up for this game. We need a presence in the box; it’s a game where both Cyle and Jonny [David] can both find goals if they’re aggressive and ready for moments.
[On how long the returning Ali Ahmed might last] We’ll check in at half-time and see where’s at. He’s a naturally fit guy – we’ll evaluate at 45 and then again at 60.
JS, the president of the Voyageurs, sent me a video that I saw a few minutes ago and looks like there’s about 70 million people marching to the stadium! We’re excited, we want to make sure we put on a performance that is very Canadian: it’s about fighting, it’s about working for each other and bringing the crowd into the game.
We want to make sure we’re on the front foot, that we’re the aggressor and we go after the game at every moment.
“There’s no point in beating a dead horse,” says Rebekah Voss, gawping at a dead horse, “but I can’t stop thinking about yesterday’s England match. See, back in 2018, I was 13 years old and sent to summer camp in the middle of nowhere. One of our counsellors was an unlucky sod from England who was crazy into the World Cup and was more than happy to explain to the kids how the sport worked and that England was obviously the best team ever. He got us all hooked.
“Then one fateful day he comes tearing across the lawn when we‘re off to disc golf and screams ENGLAND SCORED! WE ARE GOING TO WIN! That game was, of course, the semi-final versus Croatia. We watched how everything went downhill. It was my first-ever heartbreak. I saw the first half yesterday and thought, it’s going to happen again. I am so pleased that it didn’t.
“Mark from Summer Camp, if you’re reading this by any chance, thanks for making me fall in love with the beautiful game, curse you for making me like England of all teams… But most of all, I hope that you, too, feel a certain sense of satisfaction.”
I was thinking about that game the other day, specifically how a hydration break might have changed it. England were getting overrun in midfield before Ivan Perisic equalised in the 68th minute, so maybe an ad break would have slowed Croatia’s momentum. I’m loath to say it would have given England the chance to stiffen their midfield because Gareth Southgate was quite passive at that stage of his career.
Reintroducing Qatar’s star man
Ben Fisher
The hype around Johan Manzambi will only heighten after his star turn from the substitutes’ bench helped Switzerland out of a hole and get their tournament truly up and running. The 20-year-old managed to excel for Freiburg in their comprehensive Europa League final defeat against Aston Villa last month and, with 73 minutes played here and three minutes after entering as part of a triple substitution, his superb volley put an end to a sterile contest, hooking a right-foot shot into the Bosnia and Herzegovina net.
At that point Switzerland had registered eight shots, three on target, but things unravelled in the final third. It was, of course, a similar story in their opener against Qatar, when they finished with 26 shots but had to settle for a draw. Manzambi scored twice here, his second finish understated but sumptuous, before Ermin Mahmic thumped in an unstoppable volley in stoppage time, the ball clocked at 71mph according to the wraparound LED screen. Switzerland’s captain, Granit Xhaka, capped the scoring from the penalty spot after Amar Memic tripped Djibril Sow.
Full time: Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland have several toes in the knockout stage after overwhelming Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last 20 minutes in LA. Freiburg’s Johan Manzambi, aged 20, came off the bench to score twice.
Team news
Canada’s head coach Jesse Marsch makes two changes. Cyle Larin, who came off the bench to equalise against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ali Ahmed come in for Liam Millar and Tani Oluwaseyi. Alphonso Davies is among the substitutes.
Qatar are unchanged.
Canada (4-4-2) Crepeau; Johnston, De Fougerolles, Cornelius, Laryea; Buchanan, Kone, Eustaquio, Ahmed; J David, Larin.
Subs: St Clair, Goodman, Waterman, Bombito, Davies, Sigur, Choiniere, Millar, Shaffelburg, Osorio, Saliba, Oluwaseyi, P David, Nelson.
Qatar (4-2-3-1) Abunada; Alawi, Miguel, Khoukhi, Ahmed; Laye, Gaber; Edmilson Junior, Madibo, Afif; Abdurisag.
Subs: Zakaria, Barsham, Mendes, Al-Brake, Hussein, Hatem, Boudiaf, Al-Ganehi, Fathy, Alaaeldin, Muntari, Al-Haydos, Ali, Jamshid, Al-Mannai.
Referee Cristian Garay (Chile)
It’s no longer goalless in the match between Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Daniel Gallan has more.
Jonathan Wilson
Daichi Kamada’s late equaliser for Japan against the Netherlands on Sunday did not merely mean that the scoreline more accurately reflected the game. It also extended to four the unbeaten run of teams from the Asian confederation against Europe at this tournament. There is a degree of contingency to that record, and nobody should draw definitive conclusions from the first week of a World Cup, but equally if there were a shift in the power dynamics of world football, it might look a bit like this.
The tone was set on day one with South Korea’s victory over Czech Republic. It perhaps shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anybody who saw their qualifying playoff semi-final against Ireland that the Czechs would be so ponderous and lumbering, a side that understood the value of dead balls and long throws and little else. But still, the ease with which South Korea passed their way around them was striking. If Son Heung-min had been the player he was three or four years ago, the Korean victory would have been far more emphatic.
With 20 minutes remaining, it’s still goalless in Los Ageless. Maybe we’re heading for a repeat of Group E at USA 94, when Norway finished bottom despite collecting the same points as the group winners Mexico.
Jeff Rueter
Asked how he’s handling the scrutiny of coaching a World Cup co-host – where even apparently insignificant comments can end up in the headlines – Jesse Marsch was quick to flash a grin.
“Maybe we’ll get through this one without creating news cycles,” Marsch quipped a day before his Canada team welcome Qatar to Vancouver for a pivotal Group B clash. The teams are level on one point each after the first round of games, leaving the group wide open.
Marsch and midfielder Ismaël Koné refused to look beyond Thursday’s match though. Koné pushed back against one reporter’s insinuation that the players are more anonymous in Vancouver than in Toronto, the site of their draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina last week. But training in British Columbia since Monday has allowed Marsch and his men to ease the pressure of being co-hosts.
“The bigger the event, there’s going to be more distractions,” Marsch said, “so we’ve tried to minimize that. But at the same time, it’s really difficult to prepare for everything, the madness that surrounds … a World Cup.”
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina, the other match in this group, is goalless at half-time. You can follow the second half with Daniel Gallan.
The Group B story so far
Who fancies a bit of history? Fear not, we’re not about to impose 5,000 words on the group stage of the 1958 World Cup upon you. We’re talking about making history, something Canada or Qatar could do in the next few hours.
They’ve already made a small bit of history by drawing their opening games, the first time either team had picked up a point at a men’s World Cup. Today they can achieve something more substantial. A win for either team would be their first at a World Cup – and, most importantly, would pretty much ensure qualification for the knockout stage.
Yes, yes, the knockout stage is the last 32, which before this tournament would have been the group stage, so what does it really mean. Never mind that legitimate but slightly joyless view. In the modern world we need every good-news story we can get; when this game gets going, the footballers of Canada and Qatar will have the chance to become immortal.
Kick off 3pm local time/6pm EDT/11pm BST/8am AEST
Rob will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s how Canada are preparing for today’s game:
Asked how he’s handling the scrutiny of coaching a World Cup co-host – where even apparently insignificant comments can end up in the headlines – Jesse Marsch was quick to flash a grin.
“Maybe we’ll get through this one without creating news cycles,” Marsch quipped a day before his Canada team welcome Qatar to Vancouver for a pivotal Group B clash. The teams are level on one point each after the first round of games, leaving the group wide open.
Marsch and midfielder Ismaël Koné refused to look beyond Thursday’s match though. Koné pushed back against one reporter’s insinuation that the players are more anonymous in Vancouver than in Toronto, the site of their draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina last week. But training in British Columbia since Monday has allowed Marsch and his men to ease the pressure of being co-hosts.
“The bigger the event, there’s going to be more distractions,” Marsch said, “so we’ve tried to minimize that. But at the same time, it’s really difficult to prepare for everything, the madness that surrounds … a World Cup.”
You can read the full report below:
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