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Oil price tops $100 a barrel again after Trump announces strait of Hormuz blockade – business live | Business
Key events
FTSE 100 drops
London’s stock market has opened with a bump, as traders react to the lack of progress in the US-Iran peace talks.
The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has lost 0.6% at the start of trading, falling by 67 points to 10,533 points.
AB Foods (the grocery, sugar, agriculture, ingredients and retail group) are the top faller, down 2.7%, with airlines, miners, banks and housebuilders all lower.
Energy companies are rallying, though; BP and Shell are both up more than 1%.
Energy shock to wipe out growth in UK living standards
The surge in energy costs from the Iran war will cost a typical UK household almost £500, new research from the Resolution Foundation shows.
The Resolution Foundation have esimated that rising energy prices are likely to tip living standards growth into negative territory this year.
That’s because the increased cost of energy bills and petrol at the pump will almost certainly be passed onto households.
The typical household is now set to see its income fall by 0.6% – a difference of £480 – over the course of the current financial year, they say, Before the conflict, they were on track for 0.9% growth.
Average income growth for the poorest fifth this year is now set to be just 1.2%, down from 2.8% before the conflict.
James Smith, chief economist at the Resolution Foundation, says:
“Despite hopes for a sustained peace, the path of this conflict remains uncertain and energy prices remain well above pre-war levels, meaning many households face a decline in their purchasing power this year.
“This squeeze will run right through the income distribution. Lower-income households will still see some income growth thanks to a long-awaited rise in real benefit levels, but inflation will likely knock more than a percentage point off what they stood to gain. For those in the middle and towards the top of the income distribution, even the thin growth they had been expecting has tipped into negative territory.
“Deescalation is certainly welcome, but damage to household finances this year is to a large degree already done. The Government should act now to prepare a social tariff that reaches households falling through the cracks this winter.”
Heathrow Airport has warned that the outlook for the next few months is uncertain, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
In its latest traffic commentary, Heathrow says it is supporting airlines and passengers as they adapt to airspace closures, adding:
The knock-on impacts to global supply chains, including fuel, have not affected airport operations. Heathrow will monitor the situation and liaise with Government and airlines to protect passengers’ journeys.
The US dollar is rallying as a sharp risk-off move ripples across markets.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, has gained 0.35% this morning.
The pound is down half a cent, to just above $1.34.
UK gas price jumps
The price of wholesale gas has also risen this morning.
The month-ahead US gas contract is up 9% to 119.50 a therm, its highest level since last Tuesday (before Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire with Iran).
Before the conflict began at the end of February, gas was trading below 80p a therm, before hitting 180p/therm in mid-March.
Analyst: oil remains vulnerable to geopolitical triggers.
Every barrel of risk added to oil markets carries an inflation price tag for the global economy, warns Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova:
Oil markets have decisively re-entered geopolitical mode, with prices vaulting back above the psychological $100 per barrel threshold as the United States moved to impose a naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping through the strait of Hormuz.
Both benchmarks, WTI and Brent, opened gap-up and currently hover with almost 8% gains. The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real.
The latest catalyst came after talks mediated by Pakistan failed to produce a durable agreement, prompting the U.S. to announce enforcement of maritime restrictions on vessels moving to and from Iranian ports. The mere threat of enforcement alone has been sufficient to re-price risk, demonstrating how vulnerable oil remains to geopolitical triggers.
Only mild losses in Asia-Pacific markets after peace talks break down
The breakdown of US-Iran peace talks last weekend has only led to modest losses in Asia-Pacific markets.
Japan’s Nikkei index is down 0.75%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and the South Korean KOSPI have both dropped by 1.15%.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone, says:
While crude has advanced, and stocks slipped a touch, the overall market reaction to the weekend news of a US Navy blockade of the strait of Hormuz has been relatively contained, as participants view the move largely as a negotiating gambit from President Trump.
While it’s clearly a risk-averse start to the trading week, amid President Trump’s announcement of a Navy blockade in the strait of Hormuz, the general market reaction can be summed up as ‘could be worse’.
The US blockade of the strait of Hormuz is a blow to the 20,000 seafarers who have been trapped in the Gulf for the last six weeks.
One told us last week:
“I gave my notice exactly one month ago. I’ve informed the master, I’m not willing to sail through the strait. It’s about safety, it’s all about safety.”
Introduction: US blockage threat puts oil back over $100
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
We start a new week, again, with an escalating conflict in the Middle East, after the collapse of US-Iran peace talks last weekend.
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blockade on the strait of Hormuz has driven the oil price back over $100 a barrel again this morning, as hopes of an end to the conflict soon take another knock.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, has jumped by 7% to $101.88 a barrel, while US crude is up over 8% to $104.69 a barrel – back towards the highs of almost $120 set early in the conflict.
The US president also said he had asked the US Navy to “interdict” any ship that had paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, says:
By doing so, the US aims to force Tehran’s allies and customers to put pressure on Iran to reopen the vital chokepoint, potentially resolving the impasse without committing ground forces to another protracted conflict.
This approach will undoubtedly strain Iran’s relationship with its largest customer, China. Having already lost Venezuelan supply earlier this year, Beijing now faces the potential loss of another roughly 2m barrels a day.
The war has already driven confidence across Britain’s biggest companies down to a six-year low.
Deloitte’s quarterly survey of chief financial officers has found that concerns around energy prices, inflation and interest rates surging after the Middle East conflict, to its lowest level since early in the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
The agenda
The family of Shaun Burton, say they are “devastated” by the loss.
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Key events
In the opening half an hour against Cape Verde, Mikel Oyarzabal, the centre-forward, did not get a single touch.
Kyle Green gets in touch: “Your highlighting of Lalas and his absurdity is something that has prevented me from wanting to watch the coverage on Fox. While every channel has its pros and cons I just can’t.
“I’m 45 and probably the youngest of anyone who remembers him as a player instead of an opinionated insert insult here. As for the match this could be more competitive than it looks on paper Spain need a win the pressure is on them. Saudi Arabia could hold out for a draw and see what happens in their last match. “
News from the England camp, and it seems to be good news on Declan Rice.
“I’m ready and fit, raring to go. I was feeling a little bit of neural pain in my hamstring, which I was managing from after Christmas with Arsenal for a very long time. Obviously, not a lot of people would have known that. It was all behind-the-scenes stuff but it was a smart decision.
“In the end, that last 20 minutes is probably where you pick up the most, and it’s where you play a 70-minute match. But that last 20 is where you really feel your body going for it. And I think it was a smart decision because the last few days I felt really, really good.”
Alex Reid has penned today’s weekend special Football Daily.
Portugal v Uzbekistan on Tuesday enticingly pits the incredibly nice, incredibly 41-year-old-superstar-tolerant Roberto Martínez against Fabio Cannavaro, who’s won a Ballon d’Or as a player and the Chinese Super League as a coach. While the fixture following that game really does see the dream of Thomas Tuchel – in his first international job with England – taking on Queiroz, who is in charge of his ninth national side with Ghana.
The expected formations are 4-2-3-1 for Spain, and 5-3-2 for the Saudi Arabians.
The Saudi team features two Donis changes: Ali Lajami, a defender, and Nasser Al Dawsari, a midfielder, are preferred to Mohammed Abu Al Shamat and Mohamed Kanno. You may recall Salem Al Dawsari, the Saudi captain, as the man who scored the winner against Argentina.
An entertaining read, even for those of us who have just seen the clips.
In a conversation where his co-panelist is casually reminiscing about his days playing alongside Messi or exchanging shirts with Ronaldo Nazário at the World Cup, what exactly is Lalas going to talk about – coming on as a second-half substitute for Earnie Stewart in a friendly against Scotland in 1998? Helping the Kansas City Wizards finish last in the 1999 MLS Western Conference? Did Lalas enjoy an elite playing career? No. But does he do the background reading that could compensate for his relative lack of standing in a conversation with titans like Henry and Zlatan? Also no. But is he charming or funny or charismatic or otherwise magnetic on screen? Eh, no.
For the record, I once interviewed Alexi Lalas on the challenge of playing against Romario in the 1994 World Cup. He had this to say:
“He could kill you in so many different ways. If you remember from that World Cup, he scored so many types of goals. That ranged from solo adventures to an outside-of-the-right-foot half-volley off a corner kick. Romario was both the most difficult to play against and the best that I have faced.
“Roberto Baggio was doing his thing, but in terms of consistency and living up to the hype, he [Romario] was the best. As with all stars, there was a moment when the fans sit up in their seats, and that was a feeling I got with Romario. When it got close to him and the potential for his involvement in a play was there, everybody sat up in their seat. They knew that something spectacular would be happening.”
Saturday’s match reports here.
The Saudi Arabia coach, and Blackburn legend, Georgios Donis, spoke about the challenges facing his team: “Spain is not the same team when Yamal or Williams are on the bench.
“While they still have plenty of possession, they lack the individual one-on-one penetration when these two are missing. I’m not saying it’s a problem for Spain, but when those players are missing, they play in a different way. We saw this very clearly against Cape Verde.
“We are playing against one of the best teams in the world, and it’s very important that when you play against these kinds of teams, you should enjoy the experience and respect the opponent, but not too much.
“It is very hard for any team playing against Spain to have any time in possession. So what we must do is to be more in control of our movement and compact, and when the ball goes through the lines, be able to defend dynamically.
“It’s nice to see miracles in football, and we’ve seen favourites losing against underdogs. Of course, it’s great for Saudi football to have a great memory of the result against Argentina, but we aren’t drawing anything from that.
“I think we’ll feel more pressure in that [Cape Verde] game than we will against Spain.”
The Spain coach, Luis De La Fuente had this to say in his Saturday press conference: “This generation of footballers is highly competitive and really fired up… It’s going to be a completely different story,” he said at his pre-match press conference on Saturday. There is no drama or crisis. The bottom line is simply that we need to win tomorrow.”
Four changes for Spain: Lamine Yamal, Pedro Porro, Dani Olmo and Alex Baena also come into the side with Marcos Llorente, Fabian Ruiz, Ferran Torres and Gavi dropping out.
The teams – Lamine Yamal starts
Spain: Simon, Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella, Gonzalez, Rodri, Yamal, Olmo, Baena, Oyarzabal. Subs: Raya, Joan Garcia, Pubill, Grimaldo, Eric Garcia, Llorente, Merino, Torres, Fabian, Gavi, Pino, Williams, Zubimendi, Munoz, Iglesias.
Saudi Arabia: Al Owais, Abdulhamid, Tambakti, Lajami, Al Amri, Al Harbi, Nasser Al Dawsari, Al Khaibari, Al Juwayr, Al Buraikan, Salem Al Dawsari. Subs: Al Aqidi, Al Kassar, Majrashi, Yahya, Al Shehri, Al Boushal, Kadesh, Al Johani, Al Ghannam, Al Hajji, Al Hamdan, Mandash, Kanno, Thakri, Abu Al Shamat.
Referee: Raphael Claus (Brazil)
Perhaps one of the Saudi -players can write themselves into this high-grade selection?
Perhaps it can be their goalkeeper.
Madrid screening of Spain v Saudi Arabia cancelled due to heat
The public screening of Spain’s World Cup match against Saudi Arabia in Madrid on Sunday has been cancelled because of extreme heat forecast for the Spanish capital, officials said.
The match, due to kick off at 6pm local time on Sunday, had been scheduled to be shown on a giant screen installed by the Spanish football federation (RFEF) at a fan zone in Plaza de Colón in central Madrid.
Madrid city council and the federation decided to cancel the screening after national weather agency AEMET issued an orange heat warning – the second-highest level – for the Madrid region, with temperatures forecast to reach 40C.
“The decision has been taken with the aim of protecting the health of attendees, event staff and support services involved in the event,” Madrid city hall said in a statement, apologising for any inconvenience.
Officials urged supporters to watch the match indoors in air-conditioned spaces and avoid prolonged exposure to the heat.
Large parts of Spain are experiencing unusually high temperatures for June as a mass of hot air from North Africa moves across the Iberian Peninsula.
A total of 13 of Spain’s 17 regions are on orange alert for heat on Sunday, while the northern Basque Country bordering France is on red alert, the highest level.
Authorities advised residents and visitors to take precautions during the heatwave, including drinking water regularly, staying in cool environments, limiting outdoor physical activity during the hottest hours of the day and taking extra care of vulnerable people. AFP
Can Saudi Arabia repeat the magic of 2022?
Argentina arrived in Qatar on a 36-game unbeaten run. When Lionel Messi opened the scoring from the penalty spot after 10 minutes, a comfortable afternoon seemed in the offing. Saleh al-Shehri and Salem al-Dawsari had other ideas, Argentina had three goals disallowed for offside in the space of 13 minutes and the greatest comeback in Saudi Arabia football history was made. Argentina went on to lift the trophy, while defeats to Poland and Mexico meant the Saudis did not reach the knock-out stage.
Unai Simon over David Raya is a controversial choice for De la Fuentes. The Arsenal keeper could lay claim to being Europe’s best this season.
“Those at the Champions League final had a few more days, so I got there on the Wednesday night,” Raya says. “I arrived a bit before Fabián [Ruiz]. I was saying hello to some of the others in reception when he arrived. I went to say congratulations; that was almost the first thing I did. I couldn’t really talk [to him] after the final; I just didn’t have it in me. The next day we talked about the game properly. Just two mates chatting … I was happy for him that he could lift the trophy for a second time.”
A high pressure game for the European champions, as Sid Lowe reports.
“If we had scored one, the game would have changed,” Martín Zubimendi said. Immediately after the game, De la Fuente had offered a simple analysis: when the ball doesn’t want to go in it doesn’t want to go in, he insisted. Spain had racked up 27 shots, after all. Ferran Torres had hit the bar and seen another clear opportunity saved. Vozinha, the 40-year-old goalkeeper who stopped that, saved six more and was named the man of the match. “There’s nothing to reproach the team for,” Rodri said. “We generated chances but couldn’t put it away; the good thing is they created almost nothing.”
We wait to see what role Lamine Yamal will play today. His coach would surely like to be able to use him.
The worst mistake we could make would be to compare him to anyone. He is the midst of a process. He has exceptional footballing maturity and lives it all with total naturalness. He has great serenity and strength. We have to let him follow his path but those players who have something different are ready for that. They’re geniuses, like Dalí [who] can paint a picture, or Michelangelo. They’re different. What is exceptional to us, isn’t to them. In those extremes, they feel comfortable. Why? Because they are different. What we think is exceptional, they consider normal.
Preamble
Spain’s campaign did not get off to a flying start, and Luis de la Fuentes may wake up in the night to visions of Cape Verde’s Vozinha. He will have Georgia on his mind ever since Monday. Saudi Arabia are no pushovers and gave Uruguay a scare in their opening match. Memories of downing Argentina four years ago still abound, and so Spain might beware. They can ill afford to go into the final game with Uruguay at a disadvantage. All eyes on Lamine Yamal, whose fitness situation remains opaque, though Spain need their other forwards to come to the party.
Kick-off 5pm UK, 1pm ET, 2am AEST. Join me.
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